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Why Republicans are freaking out over RFK Jr.'s 2024 independent run [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-10-19  

A new poll reveals exactly why Republican operatives had a collective meltdown last week when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his 2024 independent bid for the White House.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Tuesday found that a three-way matchup between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and RFK Jr. proved to be a much bigger drag on Trump than Biden.

Among registered voters:

Biden: 44%

Trump: 37%

Kennedy: 16%

Undecided: 3%

x In a three-way contest with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent, President Biden opens up a 7-point lead over Donald Trump: 44% of registered voters support Biden, 37% back Trump, and 16% are for Kennedy.

(@maristpoll)https://t.co/8PuZ39uQpf pic.twitter.com/akqN63HUGf — Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) October 18, 2023

The survey found the head-to-head between Biden and Trump very competitive, with Biden at 49% and Trump at 46% (with 4% undecided). So the addition of RFK Jr. is a 5-percentage-point drag on Biden, but a 9-point drag on Trump.

In the head-to-head, Trump wins independents over Biden by 6 points. But Kennedy’s entry serves as an equalizer among indies, who break 34% for Trump, 33% for Biden, and 29% for Kennedy.

Kennedy also draws just 5% of Democratic voters away from Biden while taking 10% of Republicans away from Trump.

So RFK Jr. hurts Trump significantly among both partisan Republicans and independents.

Civiqs tracking of RFK Jr.'s partisan favorable ratings drive the point home. While just 15% of Democrats view Kennedy favorably (with 66% unfavorable and 19% unsure), nearly half of Republicans (47%) held a favorable view of Kennedy as of Oct. 12 (with 19% unfavorable and 33% unsure).

Kennedy also performs much better among independents, at 34% favorable and 41% unfavorable (with 26% unsure).

Third-party candidates will continue to pose spoiler threats to both parties in 2024, but for the moment, the efforts of Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel and Team Trump to cast Kennedy as a "Democrat in independent’s clothing" make perfect sense. They can thank Steve Bannon for creating this monster run amok.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/19/2200185/-Why-Republicans-are-freaking-out-over-RFK-Jr-s-2024-independent-run?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

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