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AI and Arms Control [1]

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Date: 2023-10-21  

This year marks the 78th in the history of our planet without a great power war, a major accomplishment.

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Writer Graham Allison addressed this important fact and the future of weaponry in their story “The Path to AI Arms Control: America and China Must Work Together to Avert Catastrophe.” Remember, the great power war, World War II, was preceded by another great power war, World War I, and followed by the Cold War. During the Cold War, both power blocks possessed weapons that could destroy all of humankind.

When the US dropped the atomic bomb on Japan, many knew the world was in the nuclear age, and we also didn’t know where it would take us. It seemed improbable to some at the time that there would be nine nuclear weapons states today, and this is tribute to international law, or the quality arms control promoted by our country and others. As stated by Kissinger and Allison, the leadership demonstrated by the United States over the decades in avoiding nuclear war, slowing proliferation, and shaping an international order that led to decades of great power peace will go down in history as an accomplishment.

Now, the world confronts another form of terrifying technology, at least if it’s used incorrectly, and that’s artificial intelligence. Kissinger and Allison ask several good questions on AI: “Will machines with superhuman capabilities threaten humanity’s status as master of the universe? Will AI undermine nations’ monopoly on the means of mass violence? Will AI enable individuals or small groups to produce viruses capable of killing on a scale that was previously the preserve of great powers? Could AI erode the nuclear deterrents that have been a pillar of today’s world order?” Kissinger and Allison admitted that no one can answer these questions without other questions.

AI will have catastrophic consequences for our world unless we learn how to control it. However, we can use the lessons we’ve learned from nuclear weapons to guide us. During the first Cold War, the US and Soviet Russia had a common interest – keeping nuclear weapons from spreading to smaller states that might threaten them. In addition, both also realized that these weapons shouldn’t fall into the hands of terrorists or other rouge actors within their respective state’s borders. The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction brought a certain sense of security – once each side was armed enough that an attack on the other side would destroy their country, they didn’t dare use nuclear weapons.

Right now, there are only two AI superpowers – the US and China. This offers them the opportunity to create guidelines for the use of the technology. Kissinger and Allison recommend Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party in China, and US President Joe Biden hold a summit on the subject. Robert Oppenheimer, the principal scientist of the Manhattan Project, believed in a radical measure to control nuclear weapons after their use in World War II. The Russell-Einstein Manifesto, signed by 11 leading scientists, including Abert Einstein, Linus Pauling, and Max Born, warned of the frightening nature of nuclear weapons and told world leaders not to use them.

Henry Stimson, President Franklin Roosevelt and President Harry Truman’s Secretary of War, proposed that atomic secrets be shared with both the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union to create a great power alliance that would prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Truman created a committee, chaired by Undersecretary of State Dean Acheson, to develop a strategy for pursuing the plan. Truman even sent Bernard Baruch to the United Nations to negotiate Acheson’s plan, but the Soviet Union rejected it. The Cold War heated up, and the US and Soviet Union were in an arms race.

While Kissinger and Allison give some credit to MAD for avoiding a nuclear war in the first Cold War, they also credit arms control. There was the Partial Nuclear Ban Test Treaty under President John F Kennedy that outlawed nuclear weapons testing above ground. Then there was the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks in 1972 and 1973, and the START Treaty of 1991 which used arms control and the concept of international law to keep nuclear arsenals under control. Let’s not forget the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 that kept 186 countries from developing their own nuclear arsenals.

Billionaire Elon Musk called for a six-month pause on AI development, AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky’s advocated abolishing AI, and psychologist Gary Marcus’s demanded that AI be controlled by a global governmental body are all like past nuclear-related proposals. AI scientists that work for companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are leading the way in this form of technology. Remember, AI is digital, different from nuclear weapons which require a complex infrastructure to develop. Allison and Kissinger pointed out that there isn’t time for lengthy negotiations on AI. Restraints need to occur before AI is built into the structure of any number of countries.

The president and Congress should conduct a national commission of political leaders, business leaders, and military and intelligence leaders about AI. The commission should propose AI safeguards, as stated by Kissinger and Allison. They suggested the safeguards “include requirements to assess continuously the mass computing capabilities needed to train AI models such as GPT-4 before companies release a new model that they stress test for extreme risks.”

November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco represents an opportunity for the US and China to begin a conversation on this subject. The following round of discussions should include a meeting of US and Chinese scientists. There is an emerging global conversation on AI, and November’s AI Safety Summit in the UK is an example. Governments could eventually establish an AI framework, something like the International Atomic Energy Agency. These steps could be the start of a conversation that leads to significant arms control in years to come. However, there’s a big question to be asked – can we remove ourselves from the geopolitical tensions that define our world and solve this problem?

Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project

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