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Some Simply Wonderful News: We're Killing Each Other Less [1]

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Date: 2023-10-22  

The very good news of the FBI’s crime stats report and CDC gun homicide report for 2022 have already been covered here, in the Good News Roundup and elsewhere, and it’s news worth celebrating: 6% reduction in gun homicides in one year! This follows two years of increases in gun deaths.

The Los Angeles Times, in its report on declining gun homicides, cites the projections made by Jeff Asher whose AH Datalytics is often used by both law enforcement and public interest groups, and Asher hints at even better news ahead.

The FBI data, which the bureau compiled from reports filed by 18,888 local police departments, lags nearly a year behind reality. Asher, who puts together data from departments that cover a large majority of the nation’s population, says that so far this year, homicides nationwide have declined 11% to 12%. Cities tend to report first and have larger drops than more-rural areas, Asher noted, so he’s projecting the final, nationwide 2023 numbers will show a smaller drop — somewhere between 7% and 10%. “A 10% decline would be the largest ever recorded,” he said. (bold added)

According to the FBI’s ‘22 numbers, violent crime has already dropped to more of less pre-pandemic levels. A record-breaking drop in gun killing on top of that would be wonderful news indeed, and I hope Mr. Asher’s numbers prove accurate.

As for the reason why the sudden drop, my guess is, simply, hope.

Employment’s up. Wages are up. Unions are winning concessions. Donald Trump’s losing motions in court. People get to go on cruises and blow themselves up at gender reveal parties again.

When you increase the credibility of a hopeful view in a society, enough pressure is let out of the system to reduce the usual number of hotheads blowing their tops and hurting someone, or so I believe.

Anyway, there you go, a bit of truly good news from about the least Pollyanna-ish fellow around.

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