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Nevada State Assembly: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-10-23  

Up next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Nevada State Assembly which I just looked at this month. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).

This post will be short, as there are no rating changes. There is one candidate update, as there is now a Republican challenger, Rebecca Edgeworth, in the open, but currently Dem-held AD 35.

My overall rating for the chamber is Lean Democrat. (I was somewhat on the fence between “Lean” and “Likely.”) The current balance of the chamber is nominally 28D – 14R. (As I noted in a previous post, I am treating the one currently vacant seat as Dem-held.) This means that the Dems can afford to have a net loss of at most six seats in order to maintain control of the chamber. Republicans need a net gain of at least eight seats for a majority, as a net gain of exactly seven seats would produce a tied chamber, resulting in a power-sharing agreement. For an outright majority, Republicans would need to flip at least five Democratic leaning seats (“Lean” or “Likely”), assuming they also sweep all the toss-ups and hold all the seats they are favored in. The one potential disadvantage for Dems is that they are more exposed than the GOP, with the former defending fourteen competitive seats and the latter defending just five competitive seats.

It's also a Toss Up as to whether the Dems will have a supermajority or just a simple majority in the chamber. Currently, the Dems just have a bare two-thirds supermajority in the chamber, so they cannot afford a net loss of any size (which may be moderately challenging, given how much more exposed Dems are than Republicans). The practical implications of a supermajority in this chamber would be most relevant if Dems are also able to create one in the upper chamber (senate), as this would enable the Dems to potentially override the Republican governor’s veto. Note that the Democrats probably have better odds of creating a supermajority in the upper chamber, where they need to flip just one GOP held seat, than they do of holding their supermajority in the lower chamber, especially given that Democrats are defending only one toss-up senate seat instead of three toss-up assembly seats. In addition, they have an easy pick-up opportunity in the senate in a way that they don’t in the assembly.

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