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A Game of Risk: Israel, Gaza, the United States and Turkey [1]

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Date: 2023-10-24  

So, I’m just throwing out a hypothetical. Currently Israel has amassed ~300,000 troops on the border of Gaza with the intention of mounting an invasion to eliminate Hamas. There is currently a pause while, supposedly, hostage negotiations are occurring. Meanwhile, Israel has been, more or less, bombing Palestinian civilians, who the IDF may consider “Terrorist Sympathizers” if they don’t evacuate south before the planned invasion. Enter Turkey.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called on Israel to stop the attacks on Gaza, which he believed amounts to “genocide”. Today Erdogan blamed the UN Security council of “deepening” the crisis in Gaza by bowing to the “Israeli Regime”. Add to this Erdogan has been conferring with Putin on the crisis. Enter risk.

What if Erdogan were to unilaterally send Turkish troops to Gaza in the role of peacekeeping troops? What if Israel blocks Turkish troops from landing? What if Turkish troops gain access to Gaza via Egypt and come under fire by IDF, as a member of NATO, could Turkey trigger Article 5? Would the US back Israel (not NATO) instead of Turkey? Remember, the goal of Putin is to see NATO gone, could this be the scenario he’s hoping for?

Again, this is just a hypothetical, maybe Erdogan talks big, but does nothing. But, in another timeline, this could be a very risky situation.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2023/10/24/2201437/-A-Game-of-Risk-Israel-Gaza-the-United-States-and-Turkey

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