(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Polls Are Wrong, They've Been So For the Past 8 Years; Biden Will Likely Win. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-26 Ah yes, ‘twas the summer of the doomer. I’m a new user on here and joined primarily to get a gauge of real voices and the opportunity not only to practice my story-writing skills but also to get my opinions out there and hopefully impact others. To start off i’m a 19-year-old college student living in Indiana (I know, very a envious place of living), and I think my voice is very important because people like me are the people the media never cares about in terms of our voting power. We showed up last year, we weren’t disillusioned or done with politics, though I can understand that sentiment, and we didn’t stay home because we didn’t care; we were fed up, tired of abortion bans and “don't say gay” and we made the difference. We voted for the Democrats, the Democratic party of Joe Biden. After the admittedly surprising results last year, my mind was made up; the G-O-P is D-E-A-D, and next time around it’ll be limping on its last legs led by one of the most cringeworthy, dangerous, unskilled, and ignorant politicians of the past century. But the second a poll of 1,000 people come out, people who are mostly white and older, since no 19-year old is going to answer a landline call, the outrage against this enept party is swept away, and its now a sense of shock, a sense of justification of the backwards policies, and reflection as to “how are we blowing it”. We’re not. In this article I will detail why I believe President Biden will be re-elected, using my knowledge of every presidential election in U.S. History and having the misfortunate of following the 2020 election from September 2019 to November 2020 via twitter and politico (who i should mention is owned by a guy who told his executives to pray for Trump being re-elected in 2020). The first reason is the 2022 elections, people don’t liek republicans or trumpism. Some people may say that the results were that way because trump wasn’t on the ballot but he literally wrapped himself around these senate and gubernatorial nominees! Midterms are also typically low turnout and favoring the party out of power, and should’ve been great for trump and GOP, but, people voted unfortunately for them. The key states all greatly favor democrats, and while they may be somewhat close or razor-thin, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona are all prime for democratic victories. Ron Johnson and the Nevada gubernatorial elections were great exceptions because Mandela barnes was a weak nominee and the Dem governor of Nevada faced great financial hardship, but in both states democrats won a major office against Trumpian candidates! The GOP tried to connect every Dem in hot senate races to Biden, and they won!!! So...the age issue- big whoop. It’s a concern but it was a concern last time, and it’s not like opponent is a youthful dynamic candidate of the future. Trump is old and is more unpopular than Biden. The age issue while scary for some will be overshadowed by the radical authoritarian fascism of Trump. The economy- People are ticked about inflation, i get it, I very much get it as someone who has a monthly budget, but inflation was a big issue last year and was there a red wave?……. I think you know the answer to that question. Remember the “I did that!” stickers at gas pumps...not really seeing those much anymore despite prices not being super low, but it seems that this isn’t really a winning issue. IT’S ABORTION STUPID!!!- Enough said! The mainstream media almost never talks about abortion and how FED UP women are about having their rights taken away. Trump is in NO WAY a moderate on this, and people won’t be fooled by it. Trump literally takes credit for overturning roe, and the Biden campaign is probably ready to repeat that statement over and over again. In the summer of 2022 it seemed the dems had momentum with Dobbs, but near the fall it seemed like a “fading issue” with pundits like Chuck Todd saying that the economy was truly the dominant issue...noooope. Remember that Ohio constitutional referendum that the GOP thought no one would come out and vote against because it was in mid August? ”The Enthusiasm Gap”- Absolutely nothing new. They’ve been talking about this BS since 2019. As someone who followed the 2020 race for over a year every day, the enthusiasm gap was a term that came up a lot, in context that Trump supporters were “more excited” to vote for Trump than than Biden supporters were for Biden. Yeah no. The issues bring people out. Third Parties- Cornel West is close to completely irrelevant and the people voting for him probably wouldn’t have voted for Biden anyway, even the young ones. RFK Jr. is not going to help trump at all. Him rising in the polls should be a good thing. Dean “bro think he Eugene McCarthy” Phillips- Nobody knows who he is and the party is firmly united behind Biden. In 1968 the party was sharply divided, the primary system worked differently, and LBJ hadn’t even officially announced even though he was likely going to run again. There’s no Vietnam War this time too. No left-wing young person, none, are going to go “clean for dean” and knock doors for this moderate in NH. Hope he loses his primary too. Start bringing up his name in primary polls with Biden and see how people feel about an alternative. Democracy- A big issue, don’t think it isn’t, it was one of the biggest in 2022, and Trump is by no means stopping his big lie. Already preparing for a capital police officer or the family of Brian Sicknick speaking at the DNC. Will be absolutely brutal. ”Ethical Issues”- Trump’s are 1000000x worse and has even more baggage than Hillary, whose campaign in 2015 was dominated by E-mails and Benghazi. Biden...well, nope. Even though Hillary is amazing, she had a 20-year-old vile hatred among a good chunk of the public and Biden has nothing compared to that. Them darned polls- Ah yes, if it wasn’t for the polls, the media would be saying that Biden would be crushing trump. All I gotta say is that the polls were looking horrible for Obama at this point, and the night before the 2012 election, the polls were tied! In 2016 the polls always had Clinton on top, and while people say “oh but that was right”, the state polls were dead wrong. In 2018 the polls missed the mark on a few races, and in 2020, I KNEW Biden wouldn’t beat trump by 20 or 15 or 10 points, no way. In 2022, don’t let the apologists fool you, the polls were super wrong, along with the punditry. The polls were tight in key races and favored people like Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, Tim Michels, and Kari Lake. Remember them? Yeah none of them won and all were on the trump train. People like Jonathan “The democrats can’t wave away their Hunter Biden problem” Chait, and outlets like The Hill, who has been anti-Biden since he first announced and has a show hosted by toxic hardcore Bernie 2020 backer Briahna “Bri Bri” Joy Gray, and Politico, who is owned by a conservative German conspiracy nut and who told his executives to “pray for Trump to be re-elected” are not to be trusted at all. RCP leans right and is by no means a valid source, their aggregate polling favored senate republican candidates last time. Don’t look at them, look at the ground game, focus on the issues, look at those incredible special election numbers, know people aren’t dumb, Trump has nowhere near his energy in 2016, his primary filing in New Hampshire looked pathetic, and don’t forget the fact he’s probably going to be convicted! Biden is a guy who’s beaten the odds so many times before; He couldn’t come back after Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, He’d have to drop out after that bogus Tara Reade story in 2020, Kenosha would cost him, young people wouldn’t vote,Trump’s legal efforts will work, almost every time the experts get it wrong on unemployment, Trump, pardon my language would literally be creaming his pants over these job numbers. There’s no way his party could do good in 2022, they’d be wiped out in what Chuck Todd would called a “Shellacking” in January 2022. So folks, fellow Democrats, ignore the news, ignore the pundits, keep your eyes on prize, really do run like your ten points down, but remember the fact that you will win, but WORK!!! I will, and if I ever go to a Democratic office, I will bring with me cutouts of headlines like “So, is Obama toast?” “Democrats fret aloud over Obama’s chances” and my personal favorite “Biden on the Brink” from politico playbook in February 2020. We can do this!!!! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/26/2199357/-The-Polls-Are-Wrong-They-ve-Been-So-For-the-Past-8-Years-Biden-Will-Likely-Win?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/