(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Update: ATACMS missiles are doing even better than expected [1] ['Daily Kos Staff'] Date: 2023-10-26 On Wednesday, kos noted that there was evidence that Ukraine had made additional use of the ATACMS long-range missiles recently delivered by the United States. Russia made note of it too, because Telegram and state media sources were both overrun with claims that ATACMS launches had been shot down. The problem was that the portion of the missile that the Russians kept showing was essentially the booster, not the payload. Rather than showing signs of being shredded by any air defense system, both of those ATACMS looked as if they had done their job, delivered their explosives, and simply dropped to the Earth, expended. It also seemed more than coincidental that there had been some significant explosions in the same area where the ATACMS boosters had been found. Now it seems that Russian Telegram is ‘fessing up. The two ATACMS rockets were destroyed … but not as the result of any air defense. Instead, “It is exactly like this. Two ATACMS missiles were destroyed as a result of a direct hit on the position of the Russian Armed Forces air defense group in Luhansk region and at the cost of 3 S-400 systems deployed there." Actually, this news has come in stages. At first, the thought was that Ukraine had managed to take down a pair of S-300 systems. Which is a big deal. x After lying about it for 24 hours, Russians now admit they DID NOT shoot down our ATACMS yesterday in Lugansk and that we in fact destroyed several of their S300 batteries. Footage. pic.twitter.com/xJpmwkQV8I — Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) October 26, 2023 But if these missiles actually took out three $600 million S-400 air defense systems, then the investment in the ATACMS rockets was seriously worth it. This follows the targeting of at least one and possibly two S-400 systems that Ukraine reportedly took down in Crimea in September using a modified Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. If Russia has actually lost five S-400 systems over the past two months, that’s between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in direct losses. But really, it’s more than that. Because the S-400 has been a big international seller for Russia, and what customer is going to sign up for a missile defense system that has been directly taken out by both cruise and ballistic missiles? What exactly does the S-400 defend against? In any case, the recent successful uses of ATACMS are reportedly causing Russia to scramble, including removing aircraft from fields at both Berdyansk in the south and Luhansk in the east following the massively successful attack that knocked out 21 helicopters at Berdyansk last week. (That number may actually turn out to be an underestimate.) By forcing Russia to move its aircraft out of ATACMS range, Ukraine has also made them less effective in providing air support support to Russian forces on the front. The increased distance to the front means they must carry less ordnance, have less time to loiter looking for targets, and have less flexibility in taking routes that avoid air defense threats. Exactly how many ATACMS Ukraine has isn’t known, but so far, they have made every shot count. There’s been some debate over whether Avdiivka really is “the new Bakhmut”—a location that Russia is determined to capture at any cost, including “meat waves” of low-quality troops being sent to their deaths for minimal gains. Russia’s fierce Avdiivka assault is now in its third week. The number of videos showing wrecked tanks, smashed armored carriers, blasted trucks, and Russian infantry being taken out en masse is so prolific that it seems incredible. Over the past few days, as the number of Russian troops sent out without tanks or other armor to screen them from attacks has increased, some of those videos have become absolutely ghastly. I advise extreme caution if you go searching social media for action around Avdiivka at this point because there are many, many videos circulating right now that fall into the “you can’t unsee it” category. Yes, it’s Russian soldiers. No, that doesn’t make it any easier to watch or any better for your soul. This is also difficult, but in a very different way. x It’s hard to hold back tears🥺❤️‍🩹 This elderly woman, along with her beloved cat Mashka, lives in a war-damaged house in #Avdiivka. For 30 years, she worked as a teacher of the Ukrainian language and literature. 📹: @libkos pic.twitter.com/HRptsALe0G — KyivPost (@KyivPost) October 26, 2023 On Sunday and Monday, it seemed that Russia had made a significant advance in spite of extremely heavy losses. On the north side, they stretched out their area of control by over a kilometer, creating a growing salient around the town of Krasnohorivka. Since Wednesday, open source intelligence analyst Deep State has marked the limit of the Russian advance at the rail line running between Krasnohorivka and Stepove. However, other sources have indicated a growing, if narrow, area of Russian control spreading west to the north of Stepove. The Ukrainian General Staff reported fighting near Stepove on Thursday as part of 15 assaults turned back in the Avdiivka area. Other sources have indicated that Russia is attempting to reach the heavily blast-damaged coke plant (that’s coke, like that used in making steel, rather than Coke as in served ice cold) about 500 meters south of the “waste mountain” which has come under sporadic Russian control. Continuing to push west would seem to open Russia’s salient to a counterattack from the north or south. However, if Russia can move south and reach the old coking plant, they might be able to parlay this into a foothold in the extreme northwest of Avdiivka. Then Russia could repeat exactly what happened at Bakhmut—advance slowly, block by block, trading heavy losses for gains. Up until now, the southern prong of the Russian attack seemed to be making little if any progress, with Ukrainian artillery suppressing any attempt to move much beyond Vodyane. But Russia has reportedly pulled additional reserves into the area in an effort to continue the attack. All of this makes it seem as if Avdiivka does bear a resemblance to events at Bakhmut. Vladimir Putin wants a win. Russian generals are trying to give him one. As we’ve seen in the past, Russia counts sacrificing tens of thousands to achieve a “victory” that leads to nothing as a win. x Why are Russian forces launching assaults on the small town of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast? pic.twitter.com/NIZ7K2Hfpk — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 26, 2023 It may not quite be the 55 Russian tanks that Ukraine reported destroyed on the first day of the Avdiivka offensive, but this still represents a sizable one-day loss. It’s hard to say how much of this happened at Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military is also reporting a pair of failed Russian assaults north of Kupyansk, four attacks north of Bakhmut, and seven attacks in the Klishchiivka area south of Bakhmut. Russia has reportedly made some gains north of Bakhmut in the area near the Berkhivka reservoir, but the change doesn’t appear to be very large. Ukraine has continued to hold Klishchiivka and Andrivka in the south. South of Avdiivka, Russia reportedly made multiple failed attacks at Marinka. The dividing line in that city appears to be about where it was three months ago, despite literally dozens of reported assaults. Notably, Russia doesn’t appear to have conducted any attacks in Zaporizhzhia or to have made any attempt to regain control of the area lost along the Dnipro River in Kherson. Ha, ha! He made a fumble and everyone scrambled to change so that he would be right. Funny. x Putin recalls fondly how a whole project was renamed when he misspoke its name. The dictator sees no problems with this attitude from his serfs. pic.twitter.com/UNyPKkHvpe — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2023 Donald Trump surely envies that level of toadying. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/26/2201793/-Ukraine-Update-ATACMS-missiles-are-doing-even-better-than-expected?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_5&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/