(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Gallup Poll Shows That Americans Haven't a Clue [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-27 When what you believe is directly contradictory to easily obtained facts, what’s to be said about you? That you’re terribly uninformed is probably the most charitable thing. A recent Gallup poll provides evidence that Americans are just downright willfully ignorant. Apparently, Americans ( or those that reply to Gallup polls, at any rate ) hold the following erroneous (not to say, ludicrous) beliefs: That Republicans will do a better job that will Democrats of keeping the country prosperous over the next few years (53% to 39%) That Republicans will do a better job in protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats (57% to 35%) That Republicans will do a better job of handling the problems that respondents felt were most important (44% to 36%). Let’s look at each of these issues. Do Republicans EVER do a better job on the economy? The answer is … no . The economy has generally performed better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents. For example: Since World War II, the average annual GDP growth rate has been 4.6% under Democratic presidents and 2.4% under Republican presidents. Democratic presidents have created more jobs than Republican presidents, on average. For example, during the Clinton administration, the economy created an average of 2.2 million jobs per year, compared to an average of 1.2 million jobs per year during the George W. Bush administration. The stock market has also performed better under Democratic presidents. For example, the S&P 500 index returned an average of 15.3% per year during the Clinton administration, compared to an average of 5.5% per year during the George W. Bush administration. Do Republicans do a better job of protecting the country? Again, the answer is a resounding NO. There is no evidence at all that shows that Republicans are better at protecting from terrorist attacks than are Democrats. In fact, the country is more likely to experience an attack from right-wing terrorists than from foreign terrorists. Do Republicans do a better job of handling the big problems? This is more complicated. First, what do Americans think are the “big problems”. Respondents to the Gallup poll point to “The economy in general” and “The government/poor leadership”. Those are pretty vague “problems. Perhaps our friendly generative AI website can help us. The question, “What’s the present state of the economy in general?” led me to a mid-year report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis . That report tells us: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023... In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised). But wait…it gets better. The most recent BEA report tells us: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate.” So, “the economy in general” is doing gangbusters while Democrats hold the White House and the Senate (and, of course, the House until last year) but it’s a “big problem”. As to “poor leadership”...where do we start? The Republicans’ Presidential candidate posts social media messages between court appearances, the Republican House is a clown circus, and Republican state houses devote themselves to banning books and various forms of homophobia. So what’s going on? To recap, a poll shows that a majority of the country believes things that empirically aren’t true. Further, those beliefs are easily rebutted. What’s going on? The right wing echo chamber? Bad schools and parenting? Alien mind control? All of the above? I confess, I don’t have any ready answers. I do wonder if national elections come down to the price of a gallon of gas. George W Bush popularity was inversely correlated with the price of gas during most of his administration. He probably would have been a one-term president had John Roberts not handed him the White House on a platter. On the other hand, Bill Clinton made it through two terms even as his various scandals kept that national attention transfixed from the earliest days of his first tenure. Gas prices were steadily low during both terms. As I write this, the average price of gas across the nation is $3.52. Most of the Northeast and Far West is above that. Most of the Midwest and the South is at or below that figure. It would probably be better for Democrats if that were reversed. By and large, red state voters aren’t going to swing to Democrats if the oil companies pay them to fill their tanks. Meanwhile, independents in the high gas states are shaking their heads every time they fill their tanks. If my hypothesis is correct, does it spell trouble for Democrats in 2024? Not necessarily. The Federal Reserve has been trying to put inflation in a headlock for some time and there are signs that it’s working. Oil prices have been falling from their peaks last year and may continue to fall as the global economy loses a bit of steam. Finally, supply chain bottlenecks are easing. None of these factors provide a sure thing in terms of reducing the price of gas but they don’t hurt, either. All to say, let’s keep our fingers crossed that gas is well below $3 a gallon next year. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/27/2202043/-Gallup-Poll-Shows-That-Americans-Haven-t-a-Clue?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/