(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Senators, take steps NOW. Global warming is an emergency we must take drastic steps toward [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-27 Arctic albedo This is a letter to Senators and Polar government officials. No word back yet, but going to keep chugging. If you are wanting to get involved with a movement that will have a measurable impact on the climate transition now, one you can see, and to give you access to be an early adopter in a community and network supporting that, — that’s what we will be building. If you want to work with me, donate, or have proposals, can edit, invest,etc alg0rhythm.wixsite.com/... Introduction/Immediate needs My name is Darrell Prince- I'm a second-generation chemist who has been developing America-friendly global public policy economic frameworks at scale to deal with Global Warming as the crisis it is. I am reaching out to you, other likely receptive Senators, and senior government Arctic officials because the global warming effects are accelerating, and there are possible red lines with the permafrost at about 3 degrees C anomaly, which is possible in the next few years and could set off the release of twice the existing amount of carbon, according to US government papers. We must act as if it is, as the ramp-up to protection will take years to fully implement, but probably only 90 days or so to test proof of concepts that could protect scale, with a decent amount of hustle, doable. Some steps can be taken- Solar Radiation Management- the Senate has looked briefly at but not made any decisions, and now is the time, as the ramp-up time for these processes is years and will be a bargain compared to losing cities. 1. We need pilot projects up mobilized with a plan to be able to do 2-4 times as much work next year as this on the Solar Radiation Management schemes involving land sea and air deployments or as necessary to be able to mitigate energy changes directly at both poles. 2. We will also need to scan every ice crevice mapped above and as above so below the ice, and fed into Google Maps models - predictions on the next breakups, etc. so our next round of breakup predictions are better. As well as building a broad methane level detection network on no less than tens of miles scales. 3. The Naval budgets will have to be reviewed for Arctic Operations, for 5-10 years at least, and review if Merchant Marine can be made use of at some point. I understand the global situation, but Army men and Air Force planes don't float. 4. It is vital that the American people be given absolute clarity on the role Carbon Dioxide has on warming, a thing that many millions kinda know, but have never seen demonstrated, and not recently. I have such an experiment, and I honestly believe doing that experiment from the Senate floor, or a Joint Session, particularly as it can be and should be repeated everywhere, changes the narrative of what is possible politically in the US and abroad, regarding climate change- and the campaign to win hearts and minds on this will have begun and the work will grow easier. In general, the communication strategy must be worked out to be more proactive for citizens- I do not like simply injecting them with fear, but keep them active on their parts, and they certainly can help 5. A CBO score on the 777 plan, a true scale phase one of a swap out/upgrade of American infrastructure last mile and buildings which only needs a committee approval for it will make every paper in the world, and also change the political climate, spin like tops for months. As it is it’s a 7 trillion dollar ramp-up phase that upgrades most of the country, and despite its huge price tag- only the interest on the bonds is expensive- 1.5 - 3 trillion paid as dividends to Americans for building infrastructure for their community, the rest should pay for itself with tax recoveries. 10-100 billion (10-year budgets) initially planned investment in Polar regions, for University/work program mapping biomes and permafrost preservation We've arrived at a get serious about the climate emergency date of 2050- precisely when the oil industry says oil will be too expensive to extract. Leaving us without oil, and with current estimates of 40-100 more years of warming at full blast even after the last drop is burnt, and we have no more plastics. IPCC is in a tough spot to do prognostication, but the risks of inaccuracy- dangerous to human life on earth are very possible from here on out - risks we cannot take But I know: Arctic None of the models yet include the two greatest sources of Carbon on Earth, and both are at serious risk in the Arctic. Some papers list 3 degrees C in the Arctic to lose 30-85% in a matter of years, and more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere could be released, without a bomb- just year-round accelerated leaks of unbelievable amounts of CO2 and methane seeping rapidly over 5 or so years, but makes temperature changes locally. Right now the world couldn't even detect if this is happening to my knowledge. Antarctic The Antarctic has a much longer scope as an emergency- but it will accelerate the loss of cities due to sea level rise from the moment land-based ice hits the water. (Is this factored in on a timeline of effects?) long before the continent fully breaks into icebergs. Completely irreversible, with possible ice structure irreversible damage possible at any time. Ice structure is critical here- identifying breaks before they happen and what weakness patterns look like Are there support mechanisms that could slow sliding? Is a good question We must get polar action started now experimented and tested - and ready to scale, because it may take years to fully implement a proper protection layer The possible rapid onset of global warming, particularly in the Arctic is likely triggered by a rapid melting of the Permafrost, at 3 degrees C- in the Arctic- a strong possibility in the next 3 -10 years, and that that condition was within striking distance several times this year. Arctic amplification means the Arctic has warmed 3 times as fast. The earth is at 1.4 degrees of warming Permafrost there’s 5x as much carbon as Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, which could be released over a very short < 10-year time frame. Any significant fraction is also going to make the situation in the Arctic warmer, an This increased seepage would be impossible to stop once it gets going, adding more warming. At some point about 2-4 degrees rise, particularly in several shallow areas in the Arctic, the methyl clathrates start melting into methane, the largest supply of methane in the world do not believe a sufficient network is in place to even detect it happening. This is not a matter of if, but when; the actual temperature in the water in the Arctic was, last time I checked 2 degrees C from the listed phase transitions temperature of methyl clathrates An important point here is that like how ice cubes in your freezer sublimate- go from solid straight to gas despite at no point reaching 100 degrees C (airflow is the most important characteristic), the amount of seepage will increase long before hitting that melting point. The steps I have outlined here will take a couple of years to fully implement, as it is a Herculean task- but should be able to forestall and aid - with many many other steps- in the slowing of the onset. Each In Antarctica the problem is a bit more remote as a threat; but the point of no return could be very soon - a structural breakup of the ice masses, which causes sea level rise when they slide into the sea and as they melt. I am not sure the current estimates for sea level rise take into account the pre-melted ice displacement that should affect sea level rise Once started, hard and possibly impossible to stop, but possibly possible to stop, if we look to act early. The risks to the climate- and the risk of permanent damage to the United States and our entire way of life and living - have a very short window, to take individually medium amounts of change at a large scale makes a huge difference as does the government in its role in taking actions on risks too complex for most individuals actions which must be taken must be of scope and scale to the problems at hand But it should be possible to increase albedo and decrease the warmth of the polar systems From James Hansen of Nasa (his original testimony in front of Congress is here) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVz67cwmxTM From Dr. Hansen’s website regarding his latest paper, “ Global Warming in the Pipeline” Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ∼4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2), with a likely range of 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2 times CO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone — after slow feedbacks operate — is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in the following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of the consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach to addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to "save" young people and future generations is to return to the Holocene-level global temperature. Facts: Carbon dioxide is better at retaining heat than a vacuum. The seminal work on this subject was done by 1896 Fourier and Arrhenius, whose work is still used today in all oil & gas and chemical operations worldwide. 55-75 pounds of CO2 per person per day for all 330 million Americans released just from the burning of 19 million barrels of oil every day. Thus, the Entire Earth is absorbing 18 x additional energy as the human race uses every hour, and this factor will continue to increase At this time we cannot be certain that when Carbon emissions stop, global warming will stop. The estimate Exxon had was that warming would stop about 40 years after the CO2 goes into the air. IPCC’s current projections are that 2-4 degrees C of warming are already in the pipeline Question: how was 1.5 on the table, if we are at 1.1 and we expect 40 more years of warming if we stop emitting today? Conclusion: 1.5 degrees is probably not on the table James Hansen’s recent paper suggests that both of those numbers are doubled, 4-8 degrees C- 8-16 degrees of warming and 100 years to feel the full effects of said warming. Conjecture We would have to drop emissions by probably 15-35% for 3-6 months just to be able to detect if this vital factor for planning is true or not. Arctic/Greenland and Antarctic ice are at record lows for extent and thickness https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2023/09/antarctic-sets-a-record-low-maximum-by-wide-margin/ The risk multiplier for continued damage at the poles is enormous and unfully quantitated by the models IPCC projections do not factor in the two greatest supplies of carbon on earth- Permafrost, and methyl hydrates, both of which are at significant risk in the Arctic. Despite the potential for strong positive feedback from permafrost carbon on global climate, permafrost carbon emissions are not accounted for by most Earth system models (ESMs) or integrated assessment models (IAMs), including those that informed the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...May 17, 2021 Permafrost quantities: 268.5 billion barrels= 135 Gigatons= Saudi Arabia’s oil supply 1,700 billion metric tons =1700 Gigatons= Permafrost carbon current estimates Question: What does a 10% leak of permafrost over 5 years do? “Current models predict that we’ll see a pulse of carbon released from the permafrost to the atmosphere within the next hundred years, potentially sooner ,” said Kimberley Miner, a climate researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and lead author of the paper. But key details – such as the quantity, specific source, and duration of the carbon release – remain unclear. The worst-case scenario is if all the carbon dioxide and methane were released within a very short time, like a couple of years. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/10/17/permafrost-emissions-must-be-factored-into-global-climate-targets-says-study/ A 3-degree C temperature rise in the Arctic is estimated to melt 30-80% of the permafrost- which is equivalent to doubling the current CO2 volume in the atmosphere Methyl Hydrate Deposits of methane clathrates are now known to be widespread in sediments on the continental shelves. Their current volume is estimated at between 1×1015 m3 and 5×1015 m3, corresponding to 500 and 2500 gigatonnes (109 tonnes) of carbon.2 By comparison, the total carbon in the atmosphere at present is ca 700 gigatonnes. Depending on the mathematical model employed, present calculations of their abundance range between 100 and 530,000 gigatons of carbon. Values between 1000 and 5000 gigatons are most likely. Saudi Arabia has 135 Gigatons in their proven reserves. https://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/ https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find https://scientistswarning.org/2022/09/01/methane-emergency/ Miner, K.R., Turetsky, M.R., Malina, E. et al. Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3, 55–67 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 Permafrost decomposition rates https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038071716302668#:~:text=In%20the%20bottom%20active%20layer,days%20(1%20%C2%B0C) . https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/frozen-ground-permafrost/why-frozen-ground-matters#:~:text=Permafrost%20also%20lies%20beneath%20the,billion%20tons%20of%20organic%20carbon . https://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2012/01/how-much-extra-energy-are-we-adding-to-the-earth-system/ Analysis The risks of course are the literal 4 horsemen of apocalypse; even if other factors are at play, taking steps to ward off the smallest possibility of such things is the essence of the duty inherent in “security” “military” “government” “citizen”, particularly if it is for the sake of an excess toxic to life in so many other ways. Drought brings food shortages brings Famine brings War brings Death The permafrost has enough Carbon to raise worldwide temperatures by several degrees and has genetic variants, which could mix with current diseases to create. The sheer variety suggests this almost certainly would happen at some point and humanity would be prey to something that works in a way our systems no longer have an immunity for. Permafrost will bring Disease, and There are millions of years of dormant bacteria and possibly viral DNA in that permafrost, and maybe Kaiju and Captain America. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/thawing-permafrost-could-leach-microbes-chemicals-into-environment Whether you believe in God or not - the idea that any God would continue to save a people refusing to switch lanes on energy a few decades early for the possibility of just terrible catastrophic and completely self-inflicted, self-initiated extermination The oil industry predicts itself to be out of business by 2050 anyway, leaving the human race hotter than —- with no oil. Oil is still very valuable and is still increasing in value in manufacturing, and may even be pivotal in the coming upgrade, and into our forward quest into space. But we are pumping ourselves out of the natural oil business by burning it all for energy, while it turns the atmosphere into a magnifying glass, cooking, the Earth. I say the 50+ pounds per person per day of CO2 and ask, how can any rational person think that is going to be okay, even, if you don’t know how CO2 stores heat, which scientists do and have since before the Civil War. Before the United States figured out black people are people, Eunice Foote measured carbon dioxide’s ability to trap sunlight as heat and published it. Military documents I’ve read certainly indicate, as they should - famine and food supply’s effects on wars, and civil unrest is well documented in 4,000-year-old Art of War. With 8 billion people severe drought is going to be hard to deal with What do we do about it well: More Action Steps Government 777 Plan - A global 7 Trillion dollar Phase 1 of a transition of 4-5 trillion domestically to train the populace and engage them in a massive upgrade of American-built infrastructure, and the honing of enough of the populace to do the entire United States in Phase 2, developing city and state identities and applied technologies while maintaining the same bare-bones template of human growth and access to day’s activities most of the rest to the global South Iraq and Afghanistan, which will hopefully stabilize those regions and economies - Polar preservation 1. Produce separate options on a model of near-term effects of geoengineering, at different engagement levels and cross-use, pros and cons including environmental impact: Summarize and meta-analyze existing research, and gaps, and identify dangerous o significant areas of opportunity and address them at scale, or scale model if scale not yet possible. To be produced ASAP, and corrected and perfected for a second version Land Artificial snow distribution on ice, at the poles on the temperature of the water, and what the minimum intervention to see a result would be. Test out weighted on square corners insulative airtight tarps tested in thick and thin to cover areas and possibly form Mapping polar regions with large teams on foot, cataloging life and conditions, and maximizing snow-like cover. Sea Layers Water artificial ice layers in the water, buoyant and resistant to salt water, large Due to sheer quantity on-site or near-site manufacturing facilities on land near the sea for processing tosun-shielded materials Mapping polar coastal regions and maximizing (Workforce projections, cost and time) Boat and sub-mapping of methane leaks and thermally anomalous regions, and as much polar coast as is possible, which involves Russia, though Antarctica, Alaska, and Canada are available to build the template operations for while the other situation remains tense. In any case,e this will be more than enough work in the short term to solidify the models, and help from other bodies should be considered. Get more data on locations and volumes of methyl clathrates Underwater and seismic mappings for all polar areas. Cap and cover methane sources. Which areas to begin: as much as can be mapped without international incident- we can start without the Russians but cannot finish. C. Air the airborne layering of reflective, CONTRAILS Undoing recent boat fuel standards limiting reflective components (sulfides?) in diesel. Proposing dirtying along existing shipping and fuel routes, which seem to be warming possibly as a result of reduced reflectives in fuel burnt. Small100-meter square or so over the Arctic (or the smallest possible area with easy-to-detect experiment/control differences ) test 5 simultaneously, 200+ miles apart over the Antarctic 3. Build a material-accurate reference scale model of the earth. It will probably require a new version which should begin construction within 3-6 months of the operation of the first. 4 . Increase by a factor of not less than 10 a network of methane sensors capable of detecting changes broadly to Arctic and methyl clathrate zone emissions Polar preservation 1. Produce separate options, ona models of near-term effects of geoengineering, at different engagement levels and cross-use, pros, and cons including environmental impact: Summarize and meta-analyze existing research, and gaps, and identify dangerous o significant areas of opportunity and address them at scale, or scale model if scale not yet possible. To be produced ASAP, and corrected and perfected for a second version Land Artificial snow distribution on ice, at the poles on the temperature of the water, and what the minimum intervention to see a result would be. Mapping polar regions with large teams on foot, cataloging life and conditions, and maximizing snow-like cover. Sea Layers Water artificial ice layers in the water, buoyant and resistant to salt water, large Due to the sheer quantity of on-site or near-site manufacturing facilities on land near the sea for processing to sun-shield materials Mapping polar coastal regions and maximizing (Workforce projections, cost and time) Boat and sub-mapping of methane leaks and thermally anomalous regions, and as much polar coast as is possible, which involves Russia, though Antarctica, Alaska, and Canada are available to build the template operations for while the other situation remains tense. In any case,e this will be more than enough work in the short term to solidify the models, and help from other bodies should be considered. Get more data on locations and volumes of methyl clathrates Underwater and seismic mappings for all polar areas. Cap and cover methane sources. Which areas to begin: as much as can be mapped without international incident- we can start without the Russians but cannot finish. C. Air the airborne layering of reflective, CONTRAILS Undoing recent boat fuel standards limiting reflective components (sulfides?) in diesel. Proposing dirtying along existing shipping and fuel routes, which seem to be warming possibly as a result of reduced reflectives in fuel burnt. Small100-meter square or so over the arctic (or the smallest possible area with easy-to-detect experiment/control differences ) test 5 simultaneously, 200+ miles apart over the Antarctic 3. Build a material-accurate reference scale model of the earth. It will probably require a new version which should begin construction within 3-6 months of the operation of the first. 4 . Increase by a factor of not less than 10 a network of methane sensors capable of detecting changes broadly to Arctic and methyl clathrate zone emissions Permafrost there’s 5x as much carbon as Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, which could be released over a very short < 10-year time frame. Any significant fraction is also going to make the situation in the Arctic warmer, an This increased seepage would be impossible to stop once it gets going, adding more warming. At some point about a 2-4 degree rise, particularly in several shallow areas in the Arctic, the methyl clathrates start melting into methane, the largest supply of methane in the world does not believe a sufficient network is in place to even detect it happening. This is not a matter of if, but when; the actual temperature in the water in the Arctic was, last time I checked 2 degrees C from the listed phase transitions temperature of methyl clathrates. An important point here is that like how ice cubes in your freezer sublimate- go from solid straight to gas despite at no point reaching 100 degrees C airflow is the most important characteristic), the amount of seepage will increase long before hitting that melting point. The steps I have outlined here will take a couple of years to fully implement, as it is a Herculean task- but should be able to forestall and aid - with many many other steps- in the slowing of the onset. Each In Antarctica the problem is a bit more remote as a threat; but the point of no return could be very soon - a structural breakup of the ice masses, which causes sea level rise when they slide into the sea and as they melt. I am not sure the current estimates for sea level rise take into account the pre-melted ice displacement that should affect sea level rise Once started, hard and possibly impossible to stop, but possibly possible to stop, if we look to act early. The risks to the climate- and the risk of permanent damage to the United States and our entire way of life and living -have a very short window, to take individually medium amounts of change at a large scale makes a huge difference as does the government in its role in taking actions on risks too complex for most individuals actions which must be taken must be of scope and scale to the problems at hand however it should be possible to increase albedo and decrease the warmth of the polar systems, but the steps to scale should be taken soon. My site alg0rhythm.wixsite.com/... 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