(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Update: New GOP House leadership puts Ukraine aid at risk [1] ['Daily Kos Staff'] Date: 2023-10-27 Most of the world’s attention this afternoon is on Israel and events in the Gaza Strip. While U.S. media has given only slender coverage to events in Ukraine for more than a year, even European outlets and correspondents who had been dedicated to covering Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion have now turned cameras and pens toward events in the Middle East. All of that is completely understandable. But if Ukrainian officials understand why the media focus has moved elsewhere, so does Vladimir Putin. That the Russian attack on Avdiivka began just two days after the Hamas attack on Israel threw the region into turmoil is likely no coincidence. Putin understands that there is only so much attention—and funding—to go around. With Elon Musk mocking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and claiming that people in occupied territories “want to be part of Russia,” Russia supporters in the United States and elsewhere are feeling like this is their time. One of the most important battles of this war is about to be fought in the U.S. Congress. After meeting with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel a week ago, President Joe Biden asked Congress for $106 billion in aid split between Ukraine, Israel, and additional security along the U.S. southern border. There’s absolutely no doubt that in tying together spending for Israel and Ukraine, Biden sought to prevent the two wars from being played against each other. The southern border funding was likely a sweetener to make the bill more attractive to Republicans—and harder for them to vote down. Unfortunately, that proposal landed not just in the vacuum of the House speaker fight, but came one month after Republicans in the House stepped up efforts to block additional funding for Ukraine. That included stripping $300 million for future Ukraine support out of the Defense Appropriations Bill. There’s no doubt that a substantial pro-Russian faction exists among Republicans in the House. The Washington Post reports that opposing funding for Ukraine has spread from a handful to a potential majority of Republicans in the House. Just the fact that Democrats stand against Putin and Biden supports Ukraine is enough to make many Republicans cheer for Moscow. Republican efforts to block Ukraine funding came right before the chaos of the speaker fight, and with Rep. Mike Johnson emerging from the pack as their new House leader, his position is key to what happens next. Frankly, that’s not good, given his “F” rating from Republicans for Ukraine. As Politico reports, Johnson “has consistently opposed more funding to assist Ukraine,” and he promised further opposition in his bid for speaker. Other than voting to allow the U.S. to implement lend-lease arrangements, he’s been against every effort to assist Ukraine in this conflict. Russian propagandists were certainly cheering his victory: x Meanwhile in Russia: state TV is celebrating Mike Johnson's speakership, because of his anti-Ukrainian stance. They also appreciated Virginia Foxx yelling "Shut up!" to a reporter. This too is in total alignment with Russian values and interests. https://t.co/0jAzFzTWvS — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 26, 2023 However, after taking the speaker’s chair and holding meetings with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and, separately, with President Biden on Thursday, Johnson made remarks that seemed much more pro-Ukraine than in the past. “[W]e can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan,” Johnson said in an interview on Fox News. “We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.” These were welcome statements, and it seemed for the moment as if McConnell and Biden had been successful in getting across to Johnson the linkage between all these conflicts, as well as their importance to preventing even greater wars in the future. On Thursday morning, NBC News reported there was “new hope for Ukraine aid in Washington,” with Johnson’s words generating “fresh optimism” across Capitol Hill. But by Thursday afternoon, The New York Times was again reporting that Ukraine aid was in doubt, with Johnson insisting that any aid to Ukraine be split from assistance to Israel, and with the Israel legislation voted on first. This makes it likely that assistance to Ukraine could be delayed for some time or that the level of aid offered could be significantly reduced. Though Senate Minority Leader McConnell has spoken up in approval of Biden’s $106 billion proposal, there is also an effort on the Senate side, led by Ted Cruz, J.D. Vance, and Mike Lee to sunder any connection between aid to both Israel and Ukraine. Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott went as far as saying that “Americans should be disgusted” by Biden’s effort to place funding for both conflicts in one package. Many Republicans appear to be aiming for a separate vote on assistance to Israel, with no guarantee on either a timeline or an amount of assistance for Ukraine. If Biden’s proposal came up for a vote, it would pass. There are still enough Republicans in both the House and Senate who support Ukraine that, along with Democratic votes, the package would sail through both chambers. However, it seems clear that Johnson has no intention of allowing a joint package to move forward. Republicans want to force Democrats to vote on aid to Israel while withholding even the promise of assistance to Ukraine. That puts Democrats in the difficult position of either being called out for refusing to assist Israel, or voting for the package and seeing Ukraine assistance sidelined indefinitely. Some Republicans, like Rep. Bob Goode, are already suggesting a rule that Ukraine assistance can’t come up for a floor vote unless it first secures support from a majority of Republicans. The United States is in a position where roughly three-quarters of members in both the House and Senate support additional assistance to Ukraine … but it’s not enough. Because the one-quarter that opposes that assistance has control over the House. That’s what so-called moderate Republicans did when they handed the gavel to Johnson. There’s still a chance that it won’t go down this way given Johnson’s change of tone, as well as the efforts of Republicans in the House who strongly support Ukraine and are encouraging Johnson to move ahead with a package for both conflicts, even if they are not rolled into one bill. But it’s going to be a close thing, and anyone saying they can predict the outcome at this point was probably also busy last week predicting that Rep. Tom Emmer was going to be the next speaker. (Or that Johnson wouldn’t be.) Meanwhile, the actual war continues with Russia making a huge number of assaults at Avdiivka, as well as attempting to retake ground it recently lost near Verbove in the south. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 Russian assaults split between these two areas on Friday, all of them reportedly repelled. These attacks seem to be the smaller squad-level variety that Wagner mercenaries pioneered during their takeover of Bakhmut. Unlike earlier this month when the attacks at Avdiivka began with coordinated armor, infantry, artillery, and air support, none of these attacks seemed designed to create serious movement in the lines. Deep State shows no movement in both areas, with Ukraine continuing to hold territory it liberated between Verbove and Robotyne earlier this week. Though it’s gotten little attention lately, Ukraine’s advance in this area moved their area of control over 1 kilometer, along a large section of the front line in this area. Their control also seems to have solidified, with Ukraine holding more trenches west of Verbove and eliminating Russian forces from a series of tree lines west of that town. Most of the attention in the past weeks has focused on Russia’s attempts to capture Avdiivka, but Ukraine is seeing renewed success in the south. Whether this is tied to the recent destruction of helicopters by newly arrived ATACMS long-range missiles at Berdyansk isn’t clear—but it can’t hurt. The greatly reduced number of Russian losses is a good indication that, for the moment at least, Russia’s attempted assaults seem to have fizzled out. Ukraine is reporting no activity around Kupyansk on in the area from Svatove to Kreminna. All those efforts to “push Ukraine back across the Oskil River” have apparently gone quiet. 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