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We were told a recession was coming, but the economy is booming. Another broken Biden promise. [1]

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Date: 2023-10-27  

Cross posted on my Substack, The Janovsky Report

From the essential New York Times Pitchbot:

x 10/10. No notes. — The White House (@WhiteHouse) October 26, 2023

Notice who responded!

A year ago, the usual suspects were predicting gloom and doom in the form of a recession in 2023. One economist was not. Her name is Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House economist. She’s not as well known among the public as, e.g., Krugman and others, but she devised a rule on recessions that has been widely cited, including by sources like the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Sahm Rule states:

When the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we are in the early months of recession.

In June 2022, she wrote:

Recession, Recession, Recession. The news is grim. Fears are rampant. Should they be? I will say emphatically and with data to back me up: we are not in a recession now. Businesses added almost 400,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate held at 3.6% for the third month. That’s outstanding. That’s not a recession

Some ghouls (Larry Summers, Jason Furman) were even saying we “need” a recession to fight inflation.

Well, guess what, inflation has gone down without the “need” for a recession.

Lesson One: Don’t listen to the ghouls.

Lesson Two: Listen to Claudia Sahm.

Today she takes a well-deserved victory lap, Sometimes, the impossible is possible. Ask the US economy, citing the very strong GDP growth (4.9%), low unemployment (3.6%) and other factors, along with low PCE inflation* of 2.4%.

Help spread the news using a new DNC tool called Reach:

*excludes energy and food

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/27/2188177/-We-were-told-a-recession-was-coming-but-the-economy-is-booming-Another-broken-Biden-promise?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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