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RCP8.5 -- Strike for the Planet week 117 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-10-28  

You can make a difference to the hurt being caused by climate chaos and the great extinction event in your town or your city! How? Reuse, repurpose, and recycle this information. You can push your local politicians to act. It will make a difference!

This is the letter for week 117 of a weekly climate strike that went on for 4 years in front of San Francisco City Hall, beginning early March 2019. For more context, see this story. For an annotated table of contents of the topics for all the strike letters, see this story. Meanwhile…

STRIKE FOR THE PLANET

You still don’t have any idea how bad it is, do you?

This week’s topic is: RCP8.5

Start with the IPCC

The IPCC stands for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and is part of the UN’s mission. The IPCC was set up in 1988, and published assessments in 1990 with a supplement in 1992 , 1995 , 2001 , 2007 , and 2014. The Sixth Assessment Report is due out in 2022. The IPCC does not do original research; it is an organization that gathers published sources to give governmental and NGO actors information on the current, most conservative scientific consensus. If you’re paying any attention to the environmental situation, you are likely hearing IPCC report information. Unfortunately, the information presented in the IPCC reports is both outdated by the time an assessment is released and very conservative in terms of timelines, amounts, and impacts.

We are on the IPCC’s worst-case climate trajectory

IPCC RCP8.5 projection (Representative Concentration Pathway) is the “worst case” scenario. It is also the scenario closest in agreement with current total cumulative CO 2 emissions, making it the most likely outcome in the next few decades.

What does RCP8.5 look like?

RCP8.5 assumes governments are taking no action toward mitigation of GHG atmospheric concentrations. Since we’ve seen no real policies towards mitigation, our CO 2 emissions keep rising, making RCP8.5 the most accurate climate projection available from the IPCC. In action, RCP8.5 looks like this, from NASA’s Climate Model Climate Model: Temperature Change (RCP 8.5) - 2006 - 2100 available for you to explore at https://sos.noaa.gov/catalog/datasets/climate-model-temperature-change-rcp-85-2006-2100/.

Unfortunately, it’s also looking as if the RCP8.5 optimistically didn’t include factors now acknowledged as major players in our GHG concentrations, such as the Amazon flipping to net carbon producer, negative feedback loops releasing permafrost methane into the atmosphere, and the waning of the ocean’s carbon sink capacity. The RCP8.5 underestimated emissions enough so that the realities we’re already seeing are much worse, more varied, and faster than predicted in the IPCC’s assessment reports.

If RCP8.5 isn’t accurate, what is?

The Keeling Curve.

The Keeling Curve is the daily measurement, since 1957, of CO 2 on the top of Mauna Loa in Hawai’i, above the thermal inversion layer, above the local vegetation, out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. It is a graph over time of mean atmospheric CO 2 levels. Here is the Keeling Curve to date:

from NOAA and Scripps

We’ve been able to extend the data back 800,000 years via ice cores. Here is the Keeling Curve with the ice core data included. The line on the right is the above graph included, to scale:

from NASA

Using proxy measurements of boron and carbon isotope ratios in marine sediments, stomata in fossil plant leaves, and phytane levels, we can push our CO2 information back another 600 million years. This is why we know that current CO 2 levels are the highest in at least 3.6 million years. Current CO 2 levels are the highest they’ve been during the existence of our species.

So the CO 2 level is high — so what?

CO 2 traps heat in the atmosphere; the more CO 2 , the more heat. This has already manifested in wildfires, heat domes and increases in human heat deaths, 1 billion marine animals dying from heat, megadrought, land animals dying from heat, crops cooking in the fields or destroyed by extreme weather events, farmers unable to adapt to the changes, land ecosystems losing their ability to absorb CO 2 , and solifluction.

What can we do?

Survive. How?

Recycle blackwater countywide.

Make SF run on 100% local, 100% renewable, 100% clean, 100% locally sustainable, carbon neutral or carbon negative energy by 2025 with a locally controlled and owned grid. Eliminate “natural gas” infrastructure in SF.

Plant a connected, native urban forest with green pathways for flying animals, insects, nocturnal animals, large predators and scavengers, and people. Grow food crops in and on SF, along with native plants.

Change “streets are for cars” to “streets are for people”.

Sequester carbon in every way possible in SF.

Fix environmental racism and inequalities in SF.

Begin the coastal retreats now. Plant the coastal buffer zones now.

Eliminate light pollution and increase SF’s albedo.

Require cradle-to-cradle purchasing, eliminate all non-recycled plastic use in SF, and recycle everything in SF in SF.

The arts tell us the story of what it means to be alive at this time. Use them.

Demand only green building practices, and do the upgrades and retrofits to make all buildings green.

We’re out of time. You must act now.

The current new normal for the west resembles an oven and it’s going to get worse. Heat is killing hundreds just on the west coast, and will get worse. The worst-case scenario was too rosy. Don’t you get it? This is ecocide. Act.

FOOTNOTES

1. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. IPCC. Accessed 19 July 2021. https://www.ipcc.ch .

2. “Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments”. IPCC. 1992. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-the-ipcc-1990-and-1992-assessments/ .

3. “IPCC Second Assessment”. IPCC. 1995. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/06/2nd-assessment-en.pdf .

4. “Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report”. IPCC. 2001. https://web.archive.org/web/20060903222423/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/index.htm .

5. “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”. IPCC. 2007. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf .

6. “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report”. IPCC. 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf .

7. Philip Bump. “You should not be surprised that climate predictions may have been too conservative”. The Washington Post. 19 July 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/19/you-should-not-be-surprised-that-climate-predictions-may-have-been-too-conservative/ .

8. Scott Waldman. “New Climate Report Was Too Cautions, Some Scientists Say”. Scientific American. 11 October 2018. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-climate-report-was-too-cautious-some-scientists-say/ .

9. Michael Mann. “The IPCC, Climate Change and Bad Faith Attacks on Science”. Huffpost. 6 December 2017 (updated). https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-report_b_3999277 .

10. This one argument thread from Skeptical Science is a good primer for what the weeds look like in this argument, but is most interesting for the fact that everyone involved knows that the IPCC reports are far more conservative than the facts on the ground. ATTP. “The never-ending RCP8.5 debate”. Skeptical Science. 27 December 2019. https://skepticalscience.com/never-ending-rcp85.html .

11. Hannah Osborne. “‘If RCP8.5 Did Not Exist, We’d Have to Create It’ for Climate Change by 2050.” Newsweek. 8 March 2020. https://www.newsweek.com/ipcc-worst-case-scenario-2050-1522379 .

12. greenhouse gases

13. Ane Alenar and Adriane Esquivel Muelbert. “The Amazon is now a net carbon producer, but there’s still time to reverse the damage”. The Guardian. 19 July 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/19/amazon-deforestation-jair-bolsonaro-rainforest-carbon-contributors .

14. Jonathan Watts. “Arctic methane deposits ‘starting to release’, scientists say”. The Guardian. 27 October 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find .

15. Philipp de Vrese, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen. “Permafrost Degradation in the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5”. 21st EGU General Assembly. 7-12 April 2019. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019EGUGA..2114371D/abstract .

16. Robert McSweeney. “Explainer: Nine ‘tipping points’ that could be triggered by climate change”. Carbon Brief. 10 February 2020. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change .

17. “UNESCO cautions ocean risks losing its ability to absorb carbon, exacerbating global warming”. UNESCO. 27 April 2021. https://en.unesco.org/news/unesco-cautions-ocean-risks-losing-its-ability-absorb-carbon-exacerbating-global-warming .

18. Jordan Freiman. “Carbon dioxide levels are higher than they’ve been at any point in the last 3.6 million years”. CBS News. 8 April 2021. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-carbon-dioxide-highest-level-million-years/ .

19. “Homo sapiens”. PBS. Accessed 19 July 2021. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/humans/humankind/o.html .

20. Ariel Mobius and Jesse Kroll. “How do greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere?” MIT Climate Portal. Accessed 19 July 2021. https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-do-greenhouse-gases-trap-heat-atmosphere .

21. Bruce Lieberman. “Wildfires and climate change: What’s the connection?” Yale Climate Connections. 2 July 2019. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/wildfires-and-climate-change-whats-the-connection/ .

22. Jason Samenow, Artur Galoch, and Diana Leonard. “The science of heat domes and how drought and climate change make them worse”. The Washington Post. 10 July 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/07/10/heat-dome-heat-wave-faq/ .

23. Michelle Ghoussoub. “Hundreds died during B.C.’s heat dome. Who is responsible for deaths caused by extreme heat?” CBC News. 8 July 2021. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/hundreds-died-during-bcs-heat-dome-who-is-responsible-for-deaths-caused-by-extreme-heat/ar-AALTBhH .

24. Leyland Cecco. “‘Heat dome’ probably killed 1bn marine animals on Canada coast, experts say”. The Guardian. 8 July 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/08/heat-dome-canada-pacific-northwest-animal-deaths .

25. Alejandra Borunda. “‘Megadrought’ persists in western U.S., as another extremely dry year develops”. National Geographic. 7 May 2021. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/megadrought-persists-in-western-us-as-another-extremely-dry-year-develops .

26. Lauren Sommer. “Bumblebees Are Disappearing Because of Extreme Heat”. NPR. 6 February 2020. https://www.npr.org/2020/02/06/803130948/bumblebees-are-disappearing-because-of-extreme-heat .

27. Michael Hirtzer, Marcy Nicholson, and Kim Chipman. “Wild Weather Plagues North America Grain Crops as Demand Surges”. Claims Journal. 30 June 2021. https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2021/06/30/304600.htm .

28. Tim Radford. “As climate heat worsens, a hungrier world is likely”. Climate News Network. 18 June 2021. https://climatenewsnetwork.net/as-climate-heat-worsens-a-hungrier-world-is-likely/?fbclid=IwAR0T8fgSDnVW0IwbFO21zyQw6VBA4aUVrCqWWfSR84rpsXHSVsjJ6Kmvg90 .

29. Esprit Smith. “Land Ecosystems Are Becoming Less Efficient at Absorbing Carbon Dioxide”. NASA. 21 December 2020. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3057/land-ecosystems-are-becoming-less-efficient-at-absorbing-carbon-dioxide/ .

30. Charlotte Edmond. “The Arctic is having holes stabbed through it at an alarming rate”. World Economic Forum. 14 February 2020. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/permafrost-ice-melt-thaw-arctic-global-warming-carbon/ .

31. Strike letter week 1: Water, week 20: Access to water, week 28: Water recycling, and week 52: Build blackwater recycling.

32. Strike letter week 38: Energy and week 39: Energy details.

33. Strike letter week 32: CH 4 .

34. Strike letter week 6: Planting, week 9: Insects, week 22: Examples pt 1, week 27: Trees, week 44: Insects in SF, and week 45: Bio highways.

35. Strike letter week 7: Transportation, week 15: Environmental justice, and week 29: Transit.

36. Strike letter week 3: Carbon sequestration, week 6: Planting, week 16: The ocean, week 27: Trees, week 35: CO 2 pt 2, and week 36: CO 2 pt 3.

37. Strike letter week 15: Environmental justice, week 23: Examples pt 2, week 58: Restorative Justice, and week 64: Environmental racism.

38. Strike letter week 5: Elevation, week 6: Planting, week 11: The coasts, week 13: Early financial risks, week 16: The ocean, week 18: Now or never, week 21: Priorities, and week 22: Examples pt 1.

39. Strike letter week 9: Insects, week 12: Light, week 23: Examples pt 2, and week 44: Insects in SF.

40. Strike letter week 12: Light, and week 22: Examples pt 1.

41. Strike letter week 4: Local recycling, week 31: Plastic, and week 41: Scope of the plastic problem.

42. Strike letter week 4: Local recycling, week 31: Plastic, and week 41: Scope of the plastic problem.

43. Strike letter week 4: Local recycling.

44. Grist Creative. “Lifestyle changes aren’t enough: here’s how to make cities truly sustainable”. Grist. 8 July 2021. https://grist.org/sponsored/lifestyle-changes-arent-enough-heres-how-to-make-cities-truly-sustainable/ .

45. Maanvi Singh. “American west stuck in cycle of ‘heat, drought and fire’, experts warn”. The Guardian. 13 July 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/12/wildfires-california-oregon-drought-heat-fire-cycle .

46. Sarah Kaplan. “Climate change has gotten deadly. It will get worse.” The Washington Post. 3 July 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/07/03/climate-change-heat-dome-death/ .

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