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Three questions that Presidential horserace polls need to ask [1]

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Date: 2023-10-28  

It seems every time there is a public poll with Trump leading Biden for the 2024 presidential election, there is a lot of “Biden Is Doomed” coverage in the noozmedia, and suggestions that Biden should step aside (or the Dems should put him out to pasture) and instead nominate Young Generic Democrat, whoever that might be, along with the usual rending of garments here at Daily Kos and at other liberal blogs and such. Polls with Biden in the lead (and there are quite a few) don’t garner the same amount of press coverage—and whether the media is desperate for attention in the silly season, actively in the tank for the GOP, trying to create a horserace where none might otherwise exist—or is actually identifying a problem that Biden and the Democratic Party need to address—I will leave for others to address.

Instead, there are three questions that such polls should ask, probably as follow-ups to the main horserace question. (There are four questions listed, but only one of 2a or 2b should be asked depending on the answer to #1).

1) Were you able to vote for President in 2020? (Yes or no, leave it to voter to determine what makes them “able” or not as this is a potentially thorny question).

2a) (if the answer to #1 is yes): Who did you vote for President in 2020? (Trump, Biden, someone else, did not vote)?

2b) (if the answer to #2 is no): Why were you unable to vote? (Not 18, not a US Citizen, did not register, registration was cancelled, lack ID, criminal conviction, some other reason, don’t know/just didn’t vote).

3) (All voters). Without knowing the names of the candidates, who are you likely to vote for in 2024 for the US House of Representatives? (Republican, Democrat, Third Party, don’t plan to vote, don’t know/not sure).

For previous voters, it is useful to identify any party switchers or voters who normally vote but might sit this one out, as well as to check the demographic sample against prior results. (A poll that showed Trump in the lead, but also shows Trump getting more votes vs Biden in 2020, might be viewed with some suspicion). For new voters, it’s interesting to see where they are coming from, as well as highlighting the effect of voter suppression efforts. And finally, question 3 is useful for identifying potential ticket splitters—all US voters will have a house race, in most if not all cases the opponent to the incumbent is not known—if there are Trump, third party, or undervotes for POTUS who nonetheless intend to vote Democratic for Congress, that’s important to know.

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