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Ukraine Invasion Day 613: official battlefield losses are still state secrets [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-10-28  

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 28.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut and in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[10] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Robotyne, Nesteryanka (12km northwest of Robotyne), Kopani (6km northwest of Robotyne), Rivne (8km west of Robotyne), Novoprokopivka (3km south of Robotyne), and Verbove (9km east of Robotyne).[11]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but did not make any confirmed advances on October 28. ... A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces advanced near Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), and attacked near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) and Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk) on October 27.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 28 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka and Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in the Lyman direction.[30] Ukrainian 15th Border Detachment Press Service Head Ivan Shevtsov stated that there are about 100,000 Russian soldiers in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions (likely implying both frontline and rear troops) and that inclement weather has recently affected the intensity of Russian operations in these directions.[31]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut on October 28.[33]

Ukrainian forces are reportedly complicating Russian artillery use on Bakhmut’s southern flank by effectively using drones. Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov amplified a Russian video interview with a Russian tank company commander known under the alias “Tomsk” operating near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) who claimed that Ukrainian drone strikes are inhibiting Russian use of tanks during the day.[34] “Tomsk” added that Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions during the night to avoid Ukrainian drones, which he claimed are unable to operate at night. Butusov interpreted “Tomsk’s” statements as an indication that Russian artillery is operating far from the frontline to avoid Ukrainian kamikaze drones, which impedes Russian forces‘ ability to carry out direct fire.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 28 but did not make any confirmed territorial gains. A Russian news aggregator also claimed that Russian forces advanced near Novokalynove (7km north of Avdivka) on October 27.[37]... Butusov stated on October 26 that Russian forces have advanced within 600 meters of the northern industrial area of Avdiivka in hopes of using the industrial area to enter the city itself.[40] A Russian source published footage on October 28 of Russian forces conducting airstrikes against Ukrainian positions at the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 28 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Stepove, Avdiivka, Keramik (10km northwest of Avdiivka), Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), Opytne (3km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[42]

The Russian military command appears to have committed most of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) of the Southern Military District (SMD) and transferred elements of the Central Military District (CMD) for offensive operations in the Avdiivka area. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that Russian command committed the main body of the 8th CAA, namely the elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps, Luhansk People’s Republic’s (LNR) 2nd Army Corps, 20th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division.[43] Mashovets added that Russian forces also likely laterally redeployed elements of the 2nd CAA of the CMD from the Lyman direction to the Avdiivka direction, to which it has also committed at least elements of the 21st Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and 15th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Mashovets noted that Russian forces also redeployed elements of the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) from the Kupyansk-Lyman line to positions near Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka). Mashovets concluded that Russian forces in the Avdiivka direction have elements of 12 separate motorized rifle brigades, 16 separate rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve, 22 separate rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve, 11 separate tank battalions, a separate motorized rifle battalion, and three consolidated tactical detachments of the battalion level including BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) and Storm Z units. Mashovets added that Russian forces likely have three motorized rifle regiments, seven reserve motorized rifle battalions, and two BARS units available in reserve in the Avdiivka direction. ISW is unable to verify this reported order of battle independently. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), however, assessed only that Russian forces have committed elements of up to eight brigades to the Avdiivka frontline.[44] ISW has routinely assessed that Russian military units are likely generally undermanned and may be battalions, brigades, or regiments in name only with much smaller personnel complements than their echelon designations would suggest. The irregular DNR and LNR forces, which have been formally integrated into the Russian Armed Forces in 2023, may also lack conventional organizations and complements.

Western and Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian forces are suffering significant casualties around Avdiivka. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Russian losses in the Avdiivka area totaled around 4,000 servicemen in an unspecified timeframe likely in October 2023.[45] The UK MoD added that Russian forces have likely suffered some of Russia’s highest casualty rates so far in 2023.[46] Ukrainian military observers, however, noted that Russian forces continue to attack and advance in the Avdiivka area despite these manpower losses.[47]

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2023/10/28/2202195/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-613-official-battlefield-losses-are-still-state-secrets

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