(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 615: confirmed advances and Crimean airstrikes [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-30 Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 30. Geolocated footage posted on October 30 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced northeast of Kurdyumivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[18] Additional geolocated footage from October 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces have marginally advanced west of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[19] The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive actions near Bakhmut and offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[20] The October 29 riots in Dagestan highlight the growing radicalization and factionalism of Russian society resulting from the hyper-nationalist ideologies that the war in Ukraine has empowered. Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on October 30 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage posted on October 30 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Kurdyumivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[43] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut and are inflicting losses on Russian troops in the area.[44] Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 30 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage posted on October 30 indicates that Russian troops marginally advanced towards Torske (about 8km southwest of Kreminna).[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka (7km northeast of Kupyansk) and Ivanivka (20km southwest of Kupyansk) and southeast of Terny (15km northwest of Kreminna).[36] Ukrainian "Steel Cordon" border guard assault brigade spokesperson Ivan Shevstov stated that the most active part of the Kupyansk front is near Synkivka and Ivanivka, and that Russian forces are using groups of between 10 and 30 people in attacks towards Kupyansk.[37] Shevstov noted that Russian forces continue efforts to occupy the left bank of the Oskil River.[38] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces, including airborne (VDV) elements, advanced towards Kupyansk and near Kreminna.[39] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage purportedly of the "AMURA" group of Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz striking Ukrainian positions in the Serebryanske forest area southwest of Kreminna.[40] This has become the battle of the moment in the Russo-Ukraine War, as the Russians continue to show their willingness to deploy huge numbers of troops and equipment to take a small objective. We are finally getting some decent intelligence on the losses they are suffering as well (and that Ukraine is suffering to hold them off). As long as the Russians seem willing to expose so many forces to the power of effective defensive firepower, it seems like the Ukrainians will fight there. The situation is in many ways very similar to what happened in Bakhmut earlier in the year. Over the last few weeks the Russians have pushed out bulges to the north and south of the town, leaving Avdiivka in a pocket with the Russians on 3 sides. Here is the Deep State Map to give you a picture of the pocket. To give you an idea of the width of the pocket, the distance at the narrowest point from the northern and southern edges of the bulge is just under 10 kilometres (a little over 6 miles). To create these bulges, the Russians were willing to suffer arguably the most lopsided rate of losses so far in the war, certainly the most of 2023. White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby gave an overview of the fighting around Avdiivka based on US intelligence. The numbers he has used (and actually the US has usually been on the cautious side in outlining Russian losses). Indeed, he went into a long riff on the subject (and I will give you only part of it). Since the 11th of October, Russia has suffered significant losses in this offensive attempt of theirs, including at least 125 armored vehicles around Avdiivka and more than a battalion’s worth of equipment. We expect more Russian attacks to come. This is a dynamic conflict, and we need to remember that Russia still maintains some offensive capability and may be able to achieve some tactical gains in the coming months. The pur- — to pursue that outcome in Avdiivka and elsewhere on the battlefield, Russia continues to show no regard for the lives of its soldiers. We believe they have suffered thousands of casualties in their effort to conduct this offensive, some of them on the orders of their own leaders. We have information that the Russian military has been actually executing soldiers who refuse to follow orders. We also have information that Russian commanders are threatening to execute entire units if they seek to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire. Russia’s mobilized forces remain undertrained, underequipped, and unprepared for combat. As was the case during their failed winter offensive last year, Russian military appears to be using what we would call “human wave tactics” — just throwing masses of these poorly trained soldiers right into the fight, no proper equipment, no leadership, no resourcing, no support. It is unsurprising that Russian forces are suffering from poor morale given all these conditions.¹ I’ve also talked with Ukrainians whom I trust implicitly and they give similar figures. In the fighting around Avdiivka during approximately the last 2 weeks the Russians seem to have lost between 200 and 250 different armored vehicles and approx 3000 casualties. Ukrainian official claims are closer to 4000—which gives the 3000 figure some credence. In war terms Ukrainian claims seem to be inflated by around a quarter on average—which is actually very low. Take a look at Russian claims. Anyway Russian losses are extreme, and the UK MOD, for one, estimates that the Russians have committed elements of 8 separate brigades to the fight.² phillipspobrien.substack.com/... x #UkraineAlert | "Following months of mostly defensive warfare, Russian forces recently resumed large-scale offensive operations in eastern Ukraine," writes @oliviayanchik. Read more ⤵️https://t.co/BD3rNCY267 — Eurasia Center (@ACEurasia) October 30, 2023 x 110th Brigade of Ukraine bombarding abounded Russian BMP and tank on Avdiivka front. https://t.co/GwEfNVMlUL pic.twitter.com/GCHo4ddpUX — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 30, 2023 Ukrainian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed counterattacks near Avdiivka on October 30. Ukrainian military sources noted on October 30 that Ukrainian forces shot down another Russian Su-25 in the Avdiivka direction on October 30, making it the sixth plane shot down in this direction since October 10.[50] Russian forces continued ground attacks near Avdiivka on October 30 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage posted on October 30 shows a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric artillery system operating in Novoselivka Druha (5km northeast of Avdiivka), confirming that Russian forces occupy the settlement.[51] …. Ukrainian military observer Konstantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces are conducting a "tactical regrouping" in the Avdiivka area that will likely last less than a day before Russian forces resume attacks on the settlement.[53] Mashovets reiterated his assessment that the units involved in this grouping are mainly elements of the 1st Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Army Corps and the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central Military District).[54] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun similarly noted that Russian forces are trying to compensate for equipment losses near Avdiivka and preparing to employ heavy infantry-led frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions.[55] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled unsuccessful Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove (10km northwest of Avdiivka), Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), Opytne (3km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka).[56] [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/30/2202561/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-615-confirmed-advances-and-Crimean-airstrikes?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/