(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Poll: Will Ivanka Get Control of Tr*mp NY Real Estate? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-31 Happy Halloween! Who’s afraid of testimony and trials? Not law-abiding citizens. But there’s one weird tricky family that is! Before they begin testifying about their fraud, let’s speculate about what’s going to happen! Oh, and there’s an easy poll at the end! With Tr*mp Sr, Jr & Eric having already lost their New York State civil fraud trial, they will permanently lose the right to do business (e.g. rent out condos) in New York and will likely be forced to sell property to pay the state, ostensibly $250 million. Until the penalty and transfer of ownership is settled, the court will control the Trump Org properties in New York, but whatever is left over could be handed over to another family member. Melania, a Slovenian design college drop out and ex-model, is unlikely to be given any control over anything. Baron is 17. Tiffany is 30, but her career consists of releasing one single as a singer, a few months interning at Vogue and modeling at a single show. (Vladimir Putin may know whether Tr*mp fathered any other children). Which leaves Ivanka, who is scheduled to testify this week about her family’s fraud. Unless she pisses off her usually overly-admiring old man, she has significant years of real estate & business experience at the Trump Org on top of her U Penn Economics BS cum laude. She showed particularly good timing when President Xi coincidentally granted her new trademark applications over dinner at Mar-a-Lago only a few months after her father took office. Ivanka’s slender-man Jared, has a Harvard BA (admitted coincidentally after his father gave them $2.5 million), a NYU JD & MBA, along with significant real estate experience, such as losing likely well over $100 million on 666 5th Ave. Jared, also the child of a rich felon, appears to be a schemer, who has also made well over $100 million in real estate and other businesses, plus the $2 billion private equity investment he got from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bone Saw, coincidentally just after Jared used his nepotistic office for years to defend that suspected murderer. No doubt Ivanka and Jared have discussed both Tr*mp’s real estate portfolio and his civil liabilities in New York with keen eyes as to how they might benefit. So to predict the outcome, we must attempt the allegedly impossible task: accurately valuing Tr*mp’s New York real estate. Tr*mp Real Estate in New York City Short answer: Tr*mp only owns (with a ~$100 million mortgage) Trump Tower on 5th Ave, where his best tenant is coincidentally a MAGA Super PAC. Long answer is summarized below. Trump International, Central Park West: Tr*mp only owns the parking garage, the valet booth, the restrooms in the lobby, a restaurant space and a single unit. 1290 6th Ave: Tr*mp traded for a 30% stake in this, but he has no control and can’t sell it until 2044. Trump Park Ave: Tr*mp still owns some units, including rent controlled ones (failed at bullying out the tenants). Trump Parc, Central Park South: again, Tr*mp may still own some units, including rent controlled ones (failed at bullying out the tenants). Trump Plaza, 61st St: maybe he still owns two units. For clarity, here are some NYC buildings that Tr*mp does not own but may act or have acted as property manager. Trump Building, Wall St Trump World Tower, UN Plaza Mayfair, Park Ave Trump Palace, 69th St (sold) Trump Place, Riverside Blvd (traded for 1290 above) Trump SoHo (aka ‘Felix Slater’s Russian Money-Laundering Emporium’; Tr*mp never owned it). Trump Golf Links, Hutchinson River Pkwy Niketown/ Tiffany’s/ ?, 57th St Let’s see, so Tr*mp owns one building and some condo units, half rent controlled. Even at Manhattan prices of ~$2 million each, selling the two dozen condos might only cover 20% of the fine. Trump Tower is alleged to be 58 stories, but some figure it’s less than 50 usable floors, roughly ¾ residential and ¼ office & retail. If it actually has as many units as claimed ~250?, then the units must be fairly small, since the building just isn’t as big as he says it is. It has a significant mortgage, and its best tenant—the MAGA PAC—will likely vacate before Trump goes to jail. Other Tr*mp Real Estate in New York State Trump has three NY properties north of the city. Seven Springs, Westchester: a large estate with a 1919 mansion. Trump National Golf Club, Westchester Trump National Golf Club, Hudson Valley Westchester County has some beautiful estates, but fewer than 10 are currently priced by Zillow at over $10 million. The beauty of Seven Springs is the secluded wooded surroundings, limiting development. Even a large estate like Seven Springs is likely only worth a fraction of the potential fine, maybe $25 or at most $50 million? The Hudson Valley course is near Briarcliff Manor, but Tr*mp doesn’t own that wedding venue, just the golf course. Golf Clubs are not easy to value, because they’re mostly grass with a typically sub-standard, non-residential clubhouse. Tr*mp has sold relatively few memberships, giving some away for favors. Vastly over-valued potential golf memberships is part of the civil fraud case against Tr*mp. But, for reference, the average price for a golf course in the US is $3 million, without any ex-spouse graves. Tr*mp doesn’t actually own all of his Trump National Golf Courses; some he merely manages. But if he does own the high-end ones in New York, then selling them both might raise $50 million? If he’s only the property manger or if the bank owns them, then he’s out of luck. Other Tr*mp Real Estate Nationally & Internationally Tr*mp owns 1/3 of 555 California St in San Francisco (no control or ability to sell), ½ of Trump Int’l Hotel in Vegas and 10% of Trump Int’l Chicago. In theory, selling Vegas & Chicago would clear the fine. But in practice, Tr*mp may have over-valued the properties and taken out mortgages against them. Tr*mp’s name is on ~17 golf courses mostly in the US, but on several he’s just the property manager. Some of them are golf resorts with residential units and other amenities. He bought Doral for $125 million, put $250 million into it and borrowed maybe $150 million against it. His equity is not ‘billions’. Like the Tr*mp Winery in Virginia, it was once a distressed property, has been fixed up, but still faces the fundamental serious business problem of being managed by the Tr*mp family. George Conway recently asserted on Jen Psaki’s show that any of Tr*mp’s property that is incorporated in New York, such as the limited liability company that owns Mar-a-Lago, will go into receivership and must be sold. While technically true that the LLC will have to be dissolved to meet the NY court order, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the actual ownership has to change. A new LLC in another state could replace the old one, keeping the exact same actual owners. The New York receiver could initiate this change without requiring the sale of the Florida property. Most of Tr*mp’s overseas projects are delayed, in court, bankrupt or under-performing, despite his ties to dictators. Tr*mp manages two golf clubs in Dubai, and apparently owns two golf resorts in Scotland and one in Ireland. Despite decades of ‘wheeling & dealing’ about building international towers and hotels in Moscow, Istanbul, Turkey, Indonesia, China, Panama, Brazil, Argentina, India and other countries, those projects either failed, never got built, or were built and are owned by others just using Tr*mp’s name. As far as I can tell, he has zero equity in any hotels abroad. So, Tr*mp’s ‘international hotel empire’ is just smoke and mirrors, earning him licensing or maybe janitorial fees. Add all those outside NY up, and Tr*mp has minority stakes in two domestic hotels, maybe 10 golf clubs & resorts, and Mar-a-Lago. Oh, and Truth Social, which after settling fraud charges with the SEC this summer, is still hoping to go public, even though ½ the investors backed out and the rest are threatening to cancel the deal in the next three weeks. You never really know what something is worth until you try to sell it. Bottom Line If he’s hit with the full $250 million fine, Tr*mp will have to dig deep. The idea that Tr*mp could raise cash from his golf course & licensing revenue or his campaign to pay the penalty seems far fetched, especially given his extensive legal bills. And banks don’t like to lend to people who need money. If he wants to keep Tr*mp Tower in the family, then he could try to make a deal with Jared, who has gone into large scale real estate partnerships with Tr*mp before. Since Jared controls his family’s fortune, it is quite likely that Jared—at over $750 million—will soon be worth more than Tr*mp, if he isn’t already. Kushner Tower? Ivanka’s Inn & Suites? Doesn’t have the same ring to it. Tr*mp has an extremely long list of ‘formerly owned’ properties, so I expect him to give up ownership of all of his New York properties and cut all his ties with New York, since he won’t be allowed to manage any property in the state. The court may not allow Tr*mp any say in the matter. If they start to liquidate his New York properties, then Trump Tower will go up for sale, since the total value of the other New York properties is likely not enough to cover the penalty. Being forced to sell results in low prices. Without knowing his leverage or the sale price, it’s very difficult to know how much Tr*mp would have left over after Trump Tower is sold. If the judge lets Tr*mp get away with a smaller than expected penalty or if Tr*mp can somehow easily raise $250 million (not rubles), then we can all move on to the next case and chance to receive justice. If Tr*mp’s real estate empire is more of a house of cards, with hidden debts, vastly over-valued assets, once silent partners demanding their share, complex restrictions, liabilities for breaking contracts, etc., then even partially unwinding it might trigger cascading devaluations and sales. Trump Tower was purchased in 1983, so selling it will incur significant capital gains taxes, again triggering additional devalued sales to raise cash to pay taxes. (Court fees are never deductible). Just breaking all of the leasing & licensing agreements that are legally effective in New York and putting his namesake business into receivership, as the court has already signaled it will do, will seriously damage Tr*mp’s cash flow, at least temporarily. And he will have to make those arrangements under the scrutiny of the NY receiver, eliminating some of his creative options. Tr*mp appears to be heading for prison, which should both scare away new investors, lenders and partners and also prompt current partners to stop doing business & end licensing agreements, causing more legal bills and further cutting Tr*mp’s income. Lower income could force even more sales, continuing the downward swirl. While Tr*mp will die long before we can calculate the immense damage he has already done to our country and the world, I hope that he will live long enough in prison to see his ‘empire’ collapse into ruins. Ivanka, coincidentally, will be fine. Thanks for reading. — your insufficiently humble, elitist ex-CorpFlunky [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/31/2202589/-Poll-Will-Ivanka-Get-Control-of-Tr-mp-NY-Real-Estate?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/