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Ohio et al. validate Simon Rosenberg's "Get to 55" Strategy [1]

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Date: 2023-11-08  

Cross-posted on my Substack, The Janovsky Report

Simon Rosenberg is the Democratic strategist who almost alone among pundits et al.,* predicted there would be no “red wave” in November 2022.

In March, Simon Rosenberg wrote on his Hopium Chronicles, Get to 55, Expanding Our Coalition, The Youth Opportunity. we can:

expand our coalition in the short term – under 45-year-old voters, Hispanics, Never-MAGA Republicans and those whose political views have or can be changed due to Republican extremism on abortion (not just women but men who run from the GOP due to this too)

Six weeks later, Wisconsin voters helped make that magic number happen, with Janet Protasiewicz claiming 55% of the vote . And now, we have more than 56% supporting the Democratic position in Ohio, a state Trump won 53-45, an 11 point swing.

Simon’s March post showed we are getting close to 55.

CO Gov 59%, CO Sen 55%

PA Gov 57%, PA Sen 51%

MI Gov 55%

NH Sen 54%

NM Gov 52%

GA Sen 51.4%

AZ Sen 51.5%, AZ Gov 50.3%

WI Gov 51.2%

And now we have Wisconsin (55-45) and Ohio (56-44), plus special elections, providing further validation.

The under 45 vote — Millennials plus GenZ, who overwhelmingly support Dems:

AZ Sen 65-31 (+34)

GA Sen 58-44 (+14) (November first round)

MI Gov 63-35 (+28)

NH Sen 67-31 (+36)

NV Sen 62-34 (+28)

PA Sen 63-35 (+28)

PA Gov 65-33 (+32)

So far, these represent a lower percentage of the electorate than over 45, but the percentage is increasing and can go up even more is we put in effort to registering young voters with groups like The Civics Center — a non-partisan high school voter registration group.

Subscribe to Simon’s Hopium Chronicles

***

*Tom Bonier provided support for and joined Simon’s prediction.

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