(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Morning Digest: Montana is an oasis for abortion care. Activists want to keep it that way [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-11-28  

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

x Embedded Content

Leading Off

● MT Ballot: Reproductive rights advocates have announced plans to place a constitutional amendment safeguarding the right to an abortion on the ballot next year in Montana, a state that has become an oasis for many seeking abortion care in the western United States.

Montana owes its unusual status to a 1999 decision by the state Supreme Court that overturned a state law prohibiting physician assistants from performing abortions. A unanimous court determined that the state constitution's explicit guarantee of the "right of individual privacy"—language not found in the federal constitution—also "protects a woman's right of procreative autonomy," including the right to seek a "pre-viability abortion, from a health care provider of her choice."

Thanks to that ruling, known as Armstrong v. State, abortion has remained legal in Montana even as all of its neighbors have passed bans. With only limited exceptions, the procedure is now illegal in Idaho, North Dakota, and South Dakota, while a near-total ban in Wyoming is on hold due to pending litigation.

Abortion rights supporters are cognizant, though, that Montana's high court could one day reverse Armstrong—a goal that Republicans have openly sought for some time. Ahead of a hotly contested Supreme Court election last year, in which conservatives unsuccessfully sought to oust a swing justice who has voted in favor of abortion rights, one conservative activist made the stakes explicit.

"We can either amend the Montana Constitution to ban abortion or we can replace enough justices on the Montana Supreme Court to overturn the Armstrong decision," the Montana Family Foundation's Jeff Laszloffy told MPR.

Reproductive rights proponents are aiming to get there first—though as usual, there's a long road ahead. As Mara Silvers of the Montana Free Press notes, the amendment's supporters will first have to win the approval of both a state board and state Attorney General Austin Knudsen, a Republican. They'll then have to gather 60,000 signatures, an amount equal to 10% of the vote in the most recent election for governor, including 10% in at least 40 of the 100 districts in the state House. (Fortunately for progressives, Montana's bipartisan redistricting commission has prevented the GOP from gerrymandering the state's maps.)

If the amendment can make it onto next year's ballot, though, backers have reason for optimism. Last year, by a 53-47 margin, Montana voters rejected a GOP-sponsored measure called LR-131 that would have required doctors to take drastic steps to treat infants born with lethal abnormalities or face criminal penalties. While the right to an abortion was not directly implicated, groups like Planned Parenthood opposed LR-131 precisely because it was aimed at chipping away reproductive autonomy.

Even some Republicans read the vote the same way. "I think it sends a little bit of a message about abortion in Montana and what people might feel about it," state Sen. Greg Hertz told the Free Press last year following LR-131's defeat. "My personal feeling is an all-out abortion ban is probably not supported by a majority of Montanans."

Polling backs that up. Data from Civiqs shows that 52% of Montanans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 44% who want it to be illegal in all or most cases—and the proportion who favor abortion access has steadily grown since the Dobbs decision. Should organizers succeed in placing their amendment on the ballot, there is good reason to think that Montana will cement its status as a haven for reproductive rights.

Governors

● WV-Gov, WV-Sen: Two mid-November polls offer different takes on the May Republican primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Jim Justice.

Secretary of State Mac Warner's allies at American Freedom Builders first publicized a CAMP survey showing Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading him just 24-21, with Del. Moore Capito and businessman Chris Miller respectively at 18% and 11%. However, the conservative firm American Pulse Research & Polling's survey for WMOV Radio has Morrisey beating Capito 31-23 as Warner lags with 14% and Miller takes 10%.

Only APFP released numbers for the Republican's Senate primary, and it unsurprisingly finds Justice lapping Rep. Alex Mooney 56-20. Every other survey we've seen has also had Justice far ahead in the GOP nomination battle for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

House

● CA-16: Longtime political observer Larry Gerston mentions California State Board of Equalization member Sally Lieber as a possible candidate to succeed her fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo, though Lieber herself hasn't given any indication if she's considering the idea ahead of the Dec. 13 filing deadline. Lieber previously announced that she would run for the seat on the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors held by Joe Simitian, who himself has made it clear he wants to replace Eshoo in Congress.

● MI-08, MI-Sen: State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh announced Monday that she was ending her U.S. Senate campaign and would instead run to succeed her fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, in the competitive 8th District. But while Pugh, who holds statewide office, is the first notable Democrat to launch a bid here, her fundraising is unlikely to deter any potential primary foes. Her Senate campaign took in a mere $83,000 from donors from late March through the end of September, and she ended the third quarter with just $9,000 in the bank.

Meanwhile, state Sen. John Cherry and Genesee County Clerk-Register Domonique Clemons each said before Thanksgiving that they'd stay out of the August Democratic primary for the 8th. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, by contrast, told the Flint Journal's Ron Fonger that she'd make her own decision in the following few weeks, while former Flint Mayor Karen Weaver also said she was interested.

On the Republican side, Fonger writes that former state House Speaker Tom Leonard is considering entering the August primary, though there's no word from him. Leonard lost the 2018 race for attorney general to Democrat Dana Nessel 49-46, and he tried to seek a rematch four years later.

However, in Michigan it's up to convention delegates, rather than primary voters, to pick their party's nominee for attorney general, and those delegates weren't so eager to give Leonard another chance. The party faithful instead picked election conspiracy theorist Matthew DePerno 55-45, and Nessel went on to beat him 53-45. (A special prosecutor indicted DePerno this year for allegedly taking part in a scheme to tamper with voting machines in order to "prove" that Donald Trump carried the state.)

The Detroit News also mentions former state Sen. David Robertson as a possible GOP candidate, though there's no information about Robertson's level of interest.

● MN-03: Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips said Friday that he would not seek a fourth term representing the Twin Cities' western suburbs, an announcement that came days after he bragged that he'd "torpedoed my career in Congress" with his primary campaign against President Joe Biden. Phillips' 56-44 victory over GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in 2018 made him the first Democrat to represent this area in more than five decades, but Joe Biden's 60-39 victory two years later underscores just how tough it will be for Republicans to reclaim the 3rd District.

Indeed, Minnesota Morning Take's Blois Olson writes that "Republicans are unsure who will step forward as a strong candidate." Olson mentions Jim Schultz, who was the GOP's 2022 nominee for attorney general, as a possible contender, though there's no indication if he's interested. Schultz lost a tight statewide race against Democratic incumbent Keith Ellison 50.4-49.5, but state election data says that Ellison carried the 3rd District by a convincing 56-44.

Olson adds that state Rep. Kristin Robbins "isn't likely to run," while businessman Kendall Qualls, who lost to Phillips 56-44 in 2020, "is said to be less interested this cycle." (The current version of the 3rd closely resembles the incarnation that Qualls failed to win.)

Two Democrats launched their campaigns here in the weeks before Phillips made his declaration: DNC member Ron Harris, who said he would keep running no matter what the incumbent did, and state Sen. Kelly Morrison. While Phillips and Morrison are close friends, the congressman told the Star Tribune on Friday that he wouldn't be endorsing anyone in this contest. Secretary of State Steve Simon and state Rep. Zack Stephenson each previously expressed interest in running if Phillips stepped aside.

The filing deadline is June 4, but major candidates have an incentive to announce well before then. As we recently noted, local Democrats in the 3rd Congressional District will hold a convention on May 4 to decide whether to officially endorse anyone; while participation isn't obligatory, most Minnesota candidates seek out party support, and many drop out ahead of the Aug. 13 primary if they fail to get it.

● NC-01: Politico reports that Matt Mercer, who is the editor of the North State Journal, is considering entering the GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Don Davis in this newly gerrymandered constituency. (The North State Journal was founded in 2016 by a former official in then-GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's administration, and Republican Supreme Court Justice Paul Newby is one of its investors.) The Tar Heel State's filing deadline is Dec. 15.

● NM Redistricting: The New Mexico Supreme Court on Monday unanimously upheld a lower court ruling that had determined the state's Democratic-drawn congressional map did not violate the state constitution as an impermissible partisan gerrymander.

Republicans had argued that Democrats redrew the 2nd District following the most recent census in order to gain a partisan advantage, and the lower court agreed. However, the judge concluded that the map did not constitute an "egregious gerrymander" because the plaintiffs had failed to show that Democrats "were successful in their attempt to entrench their party" in power in the district.

While Democrat Gabe Vasquez unseated Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell last year, he did so by just 1,350 votes, a margin of 0.7%. Noting "the variables that go into predicting future election outcomes, coupled with the competitive outcome of the only actual election held so far" under the new map, the judge ruled that the map did not run afoul of the constitution. In a terse order that did not outline its reasoning, the state Supreme Court concurred.

Herrell had previously announced she'd seek a rematch with Vasquez. She does not yet appear to have commented on the new ruling.

● NY-11: The New York Post writes that New York City Councilman Justin Brannan is interested in seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, and Brannan himself didn't rule anything out. The Brooklyn councilman instead said that "many people are urging" him to campaign against Malliotakis, adding, "The hardworking people of Bay Ridge and Staten Island want results, and that means they deserve a representative in Congress who's going to do more than go on TV and wage culture wars."

The current version of this seat backed Donald Trump 53-46, but Democrats are hoping that the state's court-imposed congressional map could change depending on the result of a lawsuit. (New York's highest judicial body, the Court of Appeals, heard arguments earlier this month.) Brannan, for his part, pulled off a 58-41 victory in a closely watched Nov. 7 race against his colleague, Democrat-turned-Republican Ari Kagan.

● NY-26: The Buffalo News' Charlie Specht reported last week that Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz has been talking to local party officials about entering the upcoming special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins, a fellow Democrat who will resign in the first week of February. Specht notes that Poloncarz has a close relationship with Erie County Democratic chair Jeremy Zellner, who may single-handedly get to pick the party's nominee for the special.

● OH-06: State Sen. Michael Rulli told The Vindicator's David Skolnick just before Thanksgiving that he will decide soon if he'll enter the March GOP primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, a Republican who will leave this dark red eastern Ohio seat behind to become president of the Youngstown State University. Trumbull County Commissioner Denny Malloy also informed the local NBC affiliate WFMJ that he’s considering his own bid even though his county is entirely located in GOP Rep. Dave Joyce's 14th District. Johnson has yet to say when he'll resign from Congress, but the deadline to run for a full two-year term is Dec. 20.

Skolnick also mentions state Rep. Ron Ferguson as a possible GOP candidate, as well as two familiar names: former state Rep. Christina Hagan, who lost to Democratic incumbent Tim Ryan in a 2020 battle for the old 13th District, and businesswoman Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who unsuccessfully took on Democrat Emilia Sykes last year for the revamped 13th. Gesiotto Gilbert previously launched a rematch bid against Sykes, but she dropped out in August after barely raising any money.

Skolnick adds that, while attorney Christian Palich initially considered running to replace Johnson, he has "since changed his mind."

● PA-17: Pastor Jim Nelson announced last week that he was exiting the GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio, and he used his op-ed on triblive.com to torch the one notable Republican who's still in the running. "The race for Pennsylvania's District 17 is no different with the entrance of Rob Mercuri, a party-encouraged state representative with an extremist voting record who has put Republicans in the position of explaining themselves rather than appealing to crucial swing voters in a diverse district," wrote Nelson. "We've forfeited this race to the left before it has even begun with a candidate who cannot win."

● TX-26: Former Denton County Judge Scott Armey filed FEC paperwork just before Thanksgiving, and he told the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek that he'd use that holiday to talk to his family about a potential bid to succeed outgoing Rep. Michael Burgess. Armey competed in the 2002 GOP primary to succeed his father, retiring Majority Leader Dick Armey, but he lost the runoff to Burgess 55-45. Texas' filing deadline is Dec. 11, so the field will be set here soon.

● TX-28: The Texas Tribune reported last week that, while attorney Jessica Cisneros still hasn't closed the door on a third Democratic primary bid against conservative incumbent Henry Cuellar, "few believe she is inclined to try again."

● VA-07: Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin declared Monday that she would run for the seat that her fellow Democrat, incumbent Abigail Spanberger, is giving up to run for governor in 2025. Franklin made history in 2019 when she became one of the first two Black women elected to serve on the governing body for this populous county, and she'd also be the first African American to represent Northern Virginia in Congress.

Franklin joins a nomination contest that already included Del. Briana Sewell, who would also be the region's first Black U.S. representative, and former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman. Outgoing Del. Elizabeth Guzman, a Democrat who would be Virginia's first Latino member, previously set up an exploratory committee for this competitive seat.

Attorneys General

● PA-AG: Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer just became the fifth and likely final major Democrat to enter next year's race for Pennsylvania attorney general. Stollsteimer won his current post in 2019 by defeating Republican Kat Copeland 52-48, a victory that made him the first Democrat to ever win an election as the county's top prosecutor. Earlier this month, he easily secured a second term by a 61-39 margin.

Stollsteimer joins a crowded field that already includes former public defender Keir Bradford-Grey, who previously led the Defender Association of Philadelphia; state Auditor Eugene DePasquale; former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan; and state Rep. Jared Solomon. One final name who looks likely to stay out of the primary, though, is former Rep. Conor Lamb.

In September, Lamb announced that he'd given away leftover funds from his unsuccessful 2022 Senate bid by returning money to donors and contributing to other campaigns. As Pennsylvania election lawyer Adam Bonin noted, Lamb could have instead transferred that cash—about $140,000 in total—to a state campaign account. The fact that he didn't is a strong sign he doesn't plan to seek office next year.

Republicans have a contested primary of their own between Copeland and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday, who has the endorsement of the deep-pocketed Republican Attorneys General Association. A third candidate, state Rep. Craig Williams, is also likely to run. The position of attorney general is open next year because Democrat Michelle Henry, who was appointed by Gov. Josh Shapiro to succeed him following the 2022 elections, is not running for a full term.

Ballot Measures

● NV Ballot: A state court judge has blocked reproductive rights advocates from proceeding with plans to put an amendment before voters next year that would enshrine the right to an abortion into the Nevada constitution, ruling that the proposal violates a state requirement that ballot measures be limited to a single subject.

The amendment in question would guarantee Nevadans "the right to make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy," including the right to birth control, abortion, and infertility care. According to KOLO's Terri Russell, however, Judge James Russell concluded that "there are too many subjects. Not all of which are functionally related to each other." Organizers have already said they'll appeal to the state Supreme Court.

Judges

● OH Supreme Court: The Ohio Democratic Party announced on Monday that Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Forbes would run for a Republican-held seat on the state Supreme Court next year, forming a slate with Justices Melody Stewart and Michael Donnelly, who are both seeking reelection. Republicans currently have a 4-3 majority on the court, which Democrats could reverse if all three of their candidates win.

Forbes, who hails from the Cleveland area, will try to flip the seat held by Joe Deters, but she won't actually face him. That's because Deters, who was appointed to fill a vacancy by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine a year ago, has said that he plans to challenge either Stewart or Donnelly for a full six-year term. His current post, by contrast, is only up for a two-year hitch, to fill the final portion of Chief Justice Sharon Kennedy's term. (Kennedy was an associate justice when she won the top job last year as part of a sweep by Republican hardliners.)

Earlier this year, Republicans endorsed their own slate, including Deters and two local judges, Dan Hawkins of Franklin County, and Megan Shanahan of Hamilton County. But since Deters has yet to decide which Democratic incumbent he'll run against, none of next year's matchups have been finalized.

Legislatures

● MI State House: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced last week that special elections will take place on April 16 to succeed a pair of Democrats who resigned to become mayor of their respective communities, Kevin Coleman of Westland and Lori Stone of Warren, in what's temporarily an evenly divided chamber. Democratic state House Speaker Joe Tate previously agreed that it would not be "feasible" to have the specials occur sooner on Feb. 27 to coincide with Michigan's presidential primary, though he's also said that the chamber’s rules don’t require any power-sharing agreement with Republicans.

Monday was the filing deadline to compete in the Jan. 30 party primaries, and the state has a list of contenders here. Five Democrats and one Republican are running for Coleman's 25th District, which supported Joe Biden 59-40. Three candidates from each party, meanwhile, are campaigning for Stone's 13th, which went for Biden by a larger 64-35.

● TN Redistricting: Tennessee Republicans will have to redraw their map for the state Senate after a panel of state court judges ruled that it violated a requirement in the state constitution that requires Senate districts in the same county to be numbered consecutively.

At issue are the four districts contained either wholly or partly within populous Davidson County, which is home to the state capital of Nashville. When the Republican-dominated legislature passed a new map last year, it numbered those districts as the 17th, 19th, 20th, and 21st. That, however, ran afoul of the constitutional provision in question, which ensures that large counties can't go four years between Senate elections

As is the case in many states, senators in Tennessee are elected to four-year terms, with half the chamber up for election every two years; even-numbered districts go before voters in presidential years while odd-numbered districts are up in midterm years. Under the GOP's map, however, three of Davidson's four districts held elections last year, while just one will do so next year.

It's unclear why Republicans chose to treat the county this way, and in fact they offered "no defense on the merits," as the court explained. Instead, they only challenged whether the plaintiffs had sufficient standing to challenge the map, an argument the court rejected. Lawmakers now have until Jan. 31 to adopt a remedial plan, though Republicans have indicated they may appeal. Last year, when the map was initially challenged, a lower court blocked its use but the state Supreme Court overturned that decision, saying that it would interfere with election administration.

Mayors & County Leaders

● Houston, TX Mayor: SurveyUSA shows state Sen. John Whitmire beating Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee 42-35 in the first poll we've seen since both Democrats advanced to the Dec. 9 nonpartisan runoff. The poll was conducted from Nov. 13-18 on behalf of the University of Houston, the Houston Chronicle, and Houston Public Media days after Whitmire outpaced the congresswoman 43-36 in the first round of voting.

The only other runoff poll we've seen here in the last two months was an early October UH poll that the school conducted itself (SurveyUSA does not appear to have been involved), and it showed Whitmire ahead 50-36. This newer offering from SurveyUSA, however, asked several other questions ahead of the horserace, including whether respondents felt their homes are "safe from extreme weather events" and if their neighborhoods are safe to walk in. We always encourage pollsters to ask these sorts of questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.

● Salt Lake City, UT Mayor: The Associated Press has called Tuesday's nonpartisan race for incumbent Erin Mendenhall, who defeated former Mayor Rocky Anderson 58-34. Mendenhall is a Democrat, while Anderson is a former Democrat who waged a third-party campaign against President Barack Obama from the left in 2012 and now no longer identifies with any party.

Other Races

● GA Public Service Commission: A federal appeals court has overturned a lower court ruling that had ordered Georgia to elect the members of its Public Service Commission on a district-by-district basis rather than statewide, concluding that the state "chose this electoral format to protect critical policy interests."

Last year, a federal district court determined that Georgia's system of electing all five commissioners in statewide elections violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters. Plaintiffs had pointed out that only one Black candidate had ever won an election for the commission since its founding in 1879. The court ordered that elections for two seats that were set for 2022 be postponed until the state could enact a new district-based plan.

Republicans quickly appealed that order and won a stay from the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, but the Supreme Court reversed that directive and allowed the lower court's ruling to stand pending further appeals. It's not yet clear whether plaintiffs will appeal this latest decision, which was also issued by the 11th Circuit.

Ad Roundup

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/28/2208342/-Morning-Digest-Montana-is-an-oasis-for-abortion-care-Activists-want-to-keep-it-that-way?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_10&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/