(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Pennsylvania State House Districts (2024): HD 3, HD 7, HD 38, HD 40, HD 87 [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-11-29 Today, I am looking at five more Pennsylvania house districts: HD 3, HD 7, HD 38, HD 40, and HD 87. With the exception of HD 87, all of these districts are in the western part of the state. In particular, HDs 38 and 40 both encompass some of Pittsburgh’s western suburbs in Allegheny County (with HD 40 also covering parts of neighboring Washington County). Pennsylvania House District 3 PA HD 3 is contained in Erie County and encompasses much of the western suburbs (of Erie), such as Fairview Township. HD 3 was a competitive district under the pre-2022 boundaries at the presidential level, with Barack Obama carrying it by around 6 points in 2012, Donald Trump carrying it by 4 points in 2016, and Joe Biden carrying it by just under 3 points. At the state house level, however, Democrat Ryan Bizzarro managed to easily hold the seat, winning reelection by between 29 and 30 points in 2014, by nearly 20 points in 2016, and by nearly 23 points in 2020. (The Republicans did not contest the district in 2018.) The 2022 redistricting did not really change HD 3 partisan-wise, with Biden’s margin increasing by less than a percentage point. Bizzarro was easily reelected again in 2022 by a little more than 28 points. It should be noted that Bizzarro is running for State Treasurer this cycle, though he is still also simultaneously running for reelection, so the seat won’t be open (unless he drops his reelection bid). However, if Bzizarro were to win the State Treasurer race, which would also require him to win the Democratic primary, this would result in a vacant seat, prompting a special election that would presumably be held in early 2025. Bizzarro should be fairly safe, given his previous overwhelming margins of victories, but the district still warrants notice given how competitive the district is at the top of the ticket. I’m classifying HD 3 as Likely Democrat, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Bizzarro wins in a landslide. Pennsylvania House District 7 PA HD 7 is located in Mercer County on the state’s western border with Ohio and includes the community of Hermitage. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 7 had trended heavily to the right, having gone from supporting Obama by between 17 and 18 points in 2012 to supporting Trump by just under 7 points in 2016 and by an even larger margin of around 9.5 points in 2020. At the state house level, Democrat incumbent Mark Longietti repeatedly ran unopposed, with Republicans never contesting the district. The 2022 redistricting made HD 7 a few points redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing to just over 12 points. The GOP managed to flip the district in 2022, though the house race was very competitive, with Republican Parke Wentling winning the open seat by a little less than 3 points and underperforming Trump by quite a bit. Interestingly, Wentling had previously represented HD 17 in the state house, though given that the amount of overlap between the old HD 17 and the current HD 7 is fairly small, this probably didn’t give him all that much name recognition. Wentling should have an edge this cycle, especially given that the district’s fundamentals strongly favor the GOP, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, considering how close the most recent house race was. I’m classifying HD 7 as Lean Republican. Pennsylvania House District 38 PA HD 38 is home to the community of West Mifflin. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 38 was a closely divided district at the presidential level, having narrowly supported Obama by 2 points in 2012, Trump by between 4 and 5 points in 2016, and Biden by a razor-thin margin of less than a percentage point. At the state house level, the district was safer for Dems, with Dem William Kortz II easily winning reelection by over 31 points in 2016. (Note that Kortz ran unopposed in both 2014 and 2018.) Democrat Nick Pisciottano held onto the district in 2018, winning reelection by a fairly comfortable margin of just over 12 points, though his Republican opponent seems to have been a last-minute candidate, having won the GOP primary as a write-in. HD 38 became a few points bluer as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin increasing to a little less than 4 points. Pisciottano ran unopposed in 2022, with Republicans failing to contest the district. Pisciottano should be favored somewhat, though his strengths as a candidate are somewhat uncertain, as he has never really faced serious GOP opposition. I’m classifying HD 38 as Lean Democrat. Pennsylvania House District 40 PA HD 40 contains the community of Bethel Park. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 40 was a traditionally Republican leaning district that had moved a few points to the left in 2016, with Trump carrying it by about 14.5 points after Romney had carried it by 18 points, and significantly further to the left in 2020, with Trump’s margin shrinking to a little less than 6 points. At the state house level, Republican John Maher easily won reelection in 2016 by around 30 points, though the 2018 house race was more competitive, with Republican Natalie Mihalek winning the open seat by just over 12 points. The 2020 house race, however, was not close at all, with Mihalek being easily reelected by nearly 22 points (against the same Dem challenger as 2018), despite the close presidential result. The 2022 redistricting made HD 40 a few points redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing to about 7.5 points. Despite this, the 2022 house race was quite a bit closer (than that of 2020), with Mihalek winning reelection by between 13 and 14 points, running only slightly ahead of her 2018 margin. Mihalek should be heavily favored this cycle, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, given the favorable trends for Dems and increase in polarization. I’m classifying HD 40 as Likely Republican. Pennsylvania House District 87 PA HD 87 is based in Cumberland County (just west of Harrisburg) and is home to Upper Allen Township. HD 87 had swung to left at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Romney by around 16 points to supporting Trump by about 12 points in 2016 and by a narrow margin of between 1 and 2 points in 2020. Republican incumbent Greg Rothman easily held onto the seat in 2016, winning by over 25 points (after first winning the seat by 20 points in 2014). However, Rothman’s margins did shrink considerably in 2018, when he was reelected by a little more than 13 points, and slightly further in 2020, when he was reelected by around 12 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 87 quite a bit redder (as it added more rural territory to the district), with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing to about 12.5 points. Despite being redder, the overall trends (under the post-2022 boundaries) still seem highly favorable to Dems, with almost all of the district’s precincts having swung to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020 by double digits or mid-to-high single digits. Republican Thomas Kutz easily won the open seat by about 16.5 points in 2022. Kutz should be fairly safe, but the district warrants notice, given the highly favorable trends for Dems. I’m classifying HD 87 as Likely Republican. Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and The New York Times (for precinct-level data). 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