(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



North Carolina State Senate Districts (2024): SD 5, SD 11, SD 13, SD 18 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-13  

Next up, in my state legislative series is the North Carolina State Senate. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 30R – 20D, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of just one seat to break the Republican supermajority (3/5 is the threshold in the state) and a net gain of at least 6 seats for control of the chamber. A net gain of 5 seats would also be sufficient if the Dems win the Lieutenant Governor’s race in 2024, as the LG serves as a tiebreaker. If the Democrats retain the Governorship in 2024, then breaking the supermajority in either legislative chamber would be highly impactful, given the Governor’s veto power, even though in NC, the Governor has no power over redistricting.

NC’s legislative maps have been redrawn or partially redrawn every cycle since 2018. This may make my analyses a bit confusing at points, though I try to specify any time a district was redrawn significantly. In particular, the GOP has redrawn several senate districts again for the 2024, as means of cementing their supermajority. This also holds true in the state house.

Note: there is an ongoing lawsuit, which argues that the senate maps are racial gerrymanders intended to negatively impact Black voters. However, it seems unlikely that the maps will be struck down in time for the 2024 election, considering the limited time available, as candidate filing has already begun and a judge recently rejected a speedy trial.

As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am looking at four districts: SD 5, SD 11, SD 13, and SD 18, all of which are the northern part of the state.

North Carolina Senate District 5

NC SD 5 contains parts of Pitt County, including the community of Greenville, as well as parts of Edgecombe County. Under the pre-2018 boundaries, SD 5 was a solidly Democratic district that easily supported Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by at least 24 points and with over 61% of the vote. The district was redrawn in 2018, however, and became considerably more competitive, with Clinton’s margin shrinking to around 6 points. Democrat incumbent Don Davis held onto the seat fairly easily in 2018 and 2020, winning by between 10 and 11 points in both cases, and outperforming both Clinton and Joe Biden, the latter of whom carried the district by about 7.5 points. The 2022 redistricting made SD 5 several points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 13 and 14 points. However, the 2022 senate race was quite competitive, likely a result of poor turnout among Black voters, with Democrat Kandie Smith winning the open seat by about 4.5 points, against the same GOP challenger that Davis faced in 2020. Democrat Cheri Beasley (in the 2022 U.S. Senate race) performed around 2 points better than Smith, though she still considerably underperformed Biden. Smith should be favored somewhat this cycle, given that she will now have the advantage of incumbency and that Black turnout should be higher in a presidential year, but it still seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying SD 5 as Lean Democrat. At least one Republican is running for the seat, Alexander J. Paschall.

North Carolina Senate District 11

NC SD 11 is located on the state’s northern border with Virginia and encompasses the entirety of Vance, Franklin, and Nash counties. Under the pre-2018 boundaries, SD 11 was completely safe for Republicans, with both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump (in 2016) carrying the district by around 19 to 20 points. The district became slightly bluer when it was redrawn in 2018, with Trump’s 2016 margin shrinking to 15 points, and was made even more favorable to Dems when it was redrawn again in 2020, with Trump’s 2016 margin shrinking even further to about 11 points. The corresponding senate races were somewhat in-line with the 2016 presidential results, with Republican incumbent Rick Horner winning by about 12 points in 2018 and Republican Lisa Stone Barnes winning the open seat by 10 points in 2020. It should also be noted that the district swung a few points to the left at the presidential level in 2020, with Trump carrying the district by between 7 and 8 points. The 2022 redistricting made SD 11 considerably more competitive, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to less than a percentage point. The 2022 senate race was not as close, with Barnes winning reelection by between 9 and 10 points. To a lesser extent, Beasley also underperformed Biden in 2022, as she lost the district by about 6 points. Barnes should be favored somewhat this cycle, but the district should be competitive, considering the close presidential result and that Black turnout should likely be higher. I’m classifying SD 11 as Lean Republican. Barnes has at least one Democratic challenger, retired Army Veteran and Nash Community College Board chair James Mercer.

North Carolina Senate District 13

NC SD 13 is based in Wake County, home to Raleigh, and contains the city’s southern suburbs, such as Fuquay-Varina. The new (2024) SD 13 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of SD 17. SD 17 swung a good deal to the left under the pre-2018 boundaries, as it went from supporting Romney by a little less than 6 points to supporting Clinton by between 7 and 8 points. Republican Tamara Barringer was easily reelected in SD 17 by 17 points in 2014, after having first won the seat by a competitive margin of between 7 and 8 points in 2012. The 2016 senate race was extremely close, however, with Barringer just narrowly winning reelection by less than a percentage point and with less than 50% of the vote, as there was a Libertarian on the ballot. In 2018, the district was redrawn and became several points redder, as Trump would have carried that iteration of the district by 3.5 points in 2016. Despite this, Democrat Sam Searcy was able to flip the seat in 2018, as he defeated Barringer by 4 points, likely a result of a strong environment for Democrats. The district was redrawn a second time in 2020 and became bluer again, as it would have supported Clinton by about 4 points, which is slightly worse than her performance under the pre-2018 boundaries. Biden managed to considerably improve on Clinton’s margins, as he carried the district by nearly 13.5 points, though the senate race in 2020 was more competitive, with Searcy being reelected by a closer margin of between 6 and 7 points. The 2022 redistricting made SD 17 a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 5 points. Democrat Sydney Batch, who had been appointed to replace Searcy, managed to hold onto the seat in 2022, winning by nearly 6 points and outrunning Biden. SD 13 is a few points redder than (the 2022 iteration of) SD 17, with Biden’s margin shrinking to less than 2 points in the former district. The overall trends still seem favorable to Dems, especially given that Beasley outran Biden by over 2 points in 2022, despite underperforming him statewide. No incumbents currently reside in the district, though the current SD 13 representative, Lisa Grafstein, is relocating to run. Given that there is absolutely zero overlap between SD 13’s 2022 and 2024 iterations, I’m not sure how much name recognition she will have, though. The district should be highly competitive, especially considering that it will be somewhat like an open seat (given the reasons listed above). Biden should carry it again in 2024, but it’s unclear how well down-ballot Dems will do. I’m classifying SD 13 as a Toss Up. Wake Soil and Water Conservation board member and former Apex Town Council member Scott Lassiter is running on the Republican side, as is Vicki Harry. Lassiter is also notable for having sued NC state house speaker Tim Moore over an affair between Moore and Lassiter’s wife.

North Carolina Senate District 18

NC SD 18 includes the northernmost part of Wake County, as well as the entirety of Granville County to the north, which stretches to the Virginia border. Under the pre-2020 boundaries, SD 18 was a Republican-leaning district that was somewhat competitive, with both Romney and Trump (in 2016) carrying the district by between 5 and 6 points. The 2014 senate race was fairly close, with Republican Chad Barefoot winning reelection by nearly 6 points, though his 2016 race, which he won by between 10 and 11 points, wasn’t especially competitive. The 2018 senate race was very competitive, however, with appointed incumbent Republican John Alexander just narrowly winning by less than 3 points and with under 50% of the vote, as there was a Libertarian on the ballot. The district became quite a bit more Democratic leaning when it was redrawn in 2020, as Clinton would have now carried the district by a razor-thin margin of less than a percentage point. Democrat Sarah Crawford, who was the 2014 challenger, was able to flip the seat in 2020, winning the open race by a little less than 8 points. Note that Crawford even outran Biden, who carried the district by 5.5 points. The 2022 redistricting shifted the boundaries of SD 18 further west in general and made the district a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking by about 2 points. Democrat Mary Wills Bode held onto the seat in 2022, winning the open race by between 5 and 6 points. The district has been redrawn again for 2024 and is a few points redder, as Trump would have now carried it in 2020 by a little less than 2 points. Had the new boundaries been in place last cycle, it’s possible that Bode still would have won (as she outran Biden), though the race would have likely been very close regardless. Bode is arguably the most vulnerable Dem incumbent, given that this is only Dem-held seat that Trump won in 2020. I’m classifying SD 18 as a Toss Up. At least one Republican is running, Ashlee Bryan Adams.

Thanks to DRA (for the 2020 Presidential and 2022 U.S. Senate results of the 2024 districts), cnalysis (for the 2020 Presidential results of the 2022 districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for remaining presidential results).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/13/2211438/-North-Carolina-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-5-SD-11-SD-13-SD-18?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/