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my prediction: SCOTUS on Trump [1]

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Date: 2023-12-20  

Not much need for elaboration. Here’s how I think the Supreme Court of the United States will rule on the upcoming Trump cases:

1. regarding Trump being barred from the ballot in Colorado and other states: overturned

2. regarding Jack Smith’s petition that a president should be held accountable if crime is committed during his/her presidency: upheld

This is a conservative court, to be sure, and we can count on Justices Thomas & Alito to vote hard right every time. Roberts — not necessarily.

We would need at least one Trump-appointed justice to go along with the liberal 3 justices, and hopefully Roberts, for there to be any ruling against Trump.

I doubt they will uphold the ballot-ban thing from Colorado (or anywhere else), on the grounds that this is a slippery slope. That is — theoretically anybody could claim that a future candidate is an “insurrectionist” for some meritless reason, but then effectively ban them from a ballot at state/county/municipal level. Are there government officials in red states who would happy to call liberal ideas “insurrectionist?” You betcha. Heck, there are some who’d be happy to label the Affordable Care Act as insurrectionist. The ballot thing won’t survive SCOTUS.

I expect Jack Smith’s motion to be upheld, though. The SCOTUS would actually create a slippery slope of their own if they don’t uphold this motion. The burden of judgment is now on SCOTUS to hold future presidents accountable.

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