(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Haley Factor [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-12-24 (A straightforward argument, with a brief reference, to try and illuminate my position on what’s becoming an important issue to a lot of folks.) I’ve been arguing with folks here about this for a couple of months, since the first diary I saw where pretty much every comment was terrified of the prospect of Haley getting the nomination --as they were absolutely certain that she’d run super-strong against Biden (and in fact was almost certain to beat him), and would therefor actually be a lot more dangerous a candidate than Trump. My immediate reaction was that that was patently ridiculous. It struck me as a near-guarantee that a large segment of the most rabid Trumpers would rather slit their wrists than vote for 1) a woman; 2) someone darker-skinned; 3) someone with recent non-white immigrant forbears; 4) someone with absolutely none of Trump’s WWE, circus-clown, fight-night ringleader ‘charisma;’ and 5) someone who’s NOT their slimy, orange, syphilitic, deeply-depraved God-Emperor Donny. I assume, with a hypothetical Haley nom, that 10 or 15 or 20% of Trump supporters would violently oppose her candidacy, and would either write in the name of the Orange Shit-Stain, or simply choose to stay home drinking beer and polishing their guns,… and that that would create a gigantic vote-deficit that there’s no chance in hell she’d be able to make up by drawing away some dim-witted ‘moderates’ who’d vote for her over Biden, while they would’ve felt Trump was ‘too extreme.’ (And of course if you look at her actual policy ‘platform,’ it’s almost as sickeningly Nazi-strong as his is --since she’s sickeningly taken on almost every sickening position he’s gone for.) I try to be objective, and I recognize of course that there probably are some idiot ‘moderates’ (‘independents,’ ‘libertarians,’ put whatever label you like on these buffoons) who would switch to her if she got the nod, but I’m very hard-pressed to see how there could be the many millions it’d take to outweigh the rabid-psycho chunk of the Trumpists who’d rather stick needles in their eyes. (It seems to me not hard to imagine ten million of these psychos immediately subtracted from the R column, if Nikki beat out Trump.) So here’s a piece of evidence (anecdotal, sure) that kind of powerfully illustrates exactly what I’m talking about. (Roughly 9:30 to 15:00 is the relevant portion.) Watching these people and their reactions --and hearing their explanations and rationale— makes me feel like, Oh Yeah, my intuition was exactly right. There IS in fact a huge chunk of the contemporary R voting-bloc who’d drink Drano before pulling the lever for Nikki. They hate her as much as they hate Hillary, for God’s sake. How big a slice of their bloc this represents, nobody knows --but it’s big. I think maybe all the folks assuming Haley’d powerfully outrun Trump --and therefore easily beat Biden— don’t quite fully grasp just how fucking nuts these people are. If you watch this, and similar events, and actually listen to what these psychopaths say, it clarifies greatly. This is precisely why I think an eventual R switch to Haley (or someone else similar) is probably the best thing that could happen for, ya know, the humans. It’d be the very best way we could think of to violently split their vote. We’ve learned very clearly in the last eight years that the vast majority of Republicans will happily vote for Trump --even as he more closely resembles Adolph Hitler by the day (if not because of it). The vast majority of Trump-supporters, however, will NOT vote for Nikki Haley or Chris Christie (“He’s not a fat pig; don’t you call him that”). A non-Trump nominee would effectively guarantee a major split in the R vote --and it’s not one they’ll be able to overcome. If it’s just ten percent of them, that’ll be plenty good enough to sink them --and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s substantially bigger. And this is absolutely a real possibility. For at least a year I’ve been debating pompous know-it-alls who guaranteed there’s no chance at all the nominee would be anyone but Trump. When I tried to explain to them all the stuff already in motion that will very possibly destroy his candidacy before next November (like, most obviously, the very real shot he’ll be in prison by then --or at least convicted of multiple felonies and headed for prison), they’d wave me off like it was some ridiculous pie-in-the-sky nonsense. Now we’re ten months away, and it’s Goddamn clear that there IS a very real chance of that happening (in spite of ALL the people who told me again and again for the last three years, that there’s NO chance he’ll ever be prosecuted, NO chance he’ll ever be indicted, NO chance he’ll ever go to trial, NO chance he’ll ever be convicted,… blah, blah, blah), and we’ve seen multiple polls that tell us a very substantial chunk of his brain-dead supporters flatly say they will not vote for a convicted felon, if that’s what he is when the time comes. If and when it happens (and there’s obviously still no guarantee, but anyone who tells you it’s NOT gonna happen at this point is a fucking idiot), hopefully by mid-summer, the R’s will be slapped in the face with a dire existential crisis. They’ll know that Trump has lost before they even play the game,… and they’ll be forced to consider a last-second switch. This is gonna tear their party apart. And there’s not gonna be any solution. It’s better, of course, if it happens as late as possible. The more firmly they’ve anointed Trump before they realize he’s dead, the greater the chaos they’ll slide into as they finally face the quicksand they’ve happily, stupidly, insanely marched themselves into. If it happens in late July or August, let’s say (which seems quite realistic, as it looks like the DC trial will probably get pushed off its March date, but hopefully not by more than a month or two) --after the R Convention, and the morons have already declared him their candidate-- the R’s will have reaped the maximum degree of chaos and disaster possible. (This is why their pathetic and desperate attempts to delay all his trials by any sleazy means humanly possible are entirely likely to end up backfiring in spectacular fashion --like so many other of their imbecilic ‘strategies.’ If they manage to push Judge Chutkan’s trial just far enough that the guilty verdict comes shortly after they declare him their nominee --that’ll be the most sweetly satisfying act of ritual hara-kiri we have ever seen. But even if it’s before, the chaos is gonna be magnificent.) There’s no chance in hell they’ll side-step that --even if they haven’t already clearly lost by that point. And I am sure as hell down to see it. Merry Christmas to everyone who leans that way. And Slava Ukraini. 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