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The Path Forward [1]

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Date: 2024-07-05  

After that excruciating debate my visceral reaction was that there was no way Joe Biden will be re-elected. The Democratic nominee will certainly get my vote, but if that performance is in any way representative of Biden’s capabilities, there is no way he can win; people just cannot have confidence that the old fellow mumbling, losing his train of thought, and staring slack-jawed as he waited, will have the mental and physical capacity to do the most critical job in the world next month, let alone through 2028.

I know, it’s just one debate, sitting presidents have lost first debates before, it’s not fair to judge a candidate on their worst day, he had a cold, etc. If Biden could have quickly, clearly demonstrated that he can think and respond on his feet and look robust enough to give Americans confidence in his abilities going forward he might have had a chance. It has been over a week now and that has not been shown. Maybe the ABC interview can help but I view it as way too little, way too late. That bell cannot be unrung.

I had a short political career, running for a local office 20+ years ago. One thing learned quickly is that the job and skill set of campaigning is quite different from the job of holding office. I actually have great faith in Biden’s ability, with his staff and cabinet, to do the job of guiding the country. He has done an amazing job since 2021 after being handed a shit sandwich after no transition from the worst and most corrupt administration in history. Without a congressional majority he has made important progress on just about all fronts: the economy, jobs, infrastructure, climate, foreign policy, regaining the respect of the world lost by The Convicted Felon. Unsurprisingly he will get blame for not solving unsolvable problems. I thought Jared was supposed to solve the middle east conflict before 2021 but somehow he failed. Immigration has been whipped into a major crisis by TCF but as a person who crosses the border each way each year I don’t see a crisis.

Inconveniently, Biden’s team won’t get a chance to competently lead us, to do that good job, if he cannot do the other job of being the winning candidate. And we all know very well that the consequences of losing this election to TCF would be catastrophic for the country, for the world, for democracy, for the climate, and for our sanity. There might not be a next time. Beating Trump has to be the top and only priority.

I read The Atlantic and The New Yorker online. They have both been honest, persuasive, and unequivocal in the assertion that Biden should not be our candidate. They have been discussing various mechanisms: voluntary withdrawal, confrontation from party leaders,25th amendment approaches from the cabinet and VP, even resignation from not just the race but the presidency, now, to allow Harris to take the money, and run. It is sad that that what it has come to but this is the time for Biden to do the best thing for the party and especially the country. Joe Biden has decades of experience and great political insight, and I hope he can make a clear judgment about his own infirmities, chances of winning, and prospects for robust health for five more years. It will be painful, unfair, and sad but he cannot outrun time itself. I wish he was younger. I wish I was younger. But we are not.

I know it is absurd to even contemplate losing to the worst, most corrupt, lying, dumb, opponent ever, but he is the guy who is better at only the job of campaigning. With a vast swath of the electorate getting their news form Fox, Facebook, and worse we need a sharp, dynamic, charismatic candidate, and Biden is not that guy right now. If things don’t change, and fast, our worst nightmare is coming.

To win I think we need to unite and run on strength. We need a candidate BEFORE the convention. For one thing the candidate has to be named before the convention to get on the Michigan ballot, as I understandit. I don’t see how it can reasonably be anyone but Harris, whichis OK by me. Get Pete as new VP. Then we need to use the campaign cash and everything else on every front: the Biden team’s record and accomplishments, the economy, jobs, climate change, infrastructure, the chips act, renewables etc. Also we have to go seriously negative on TCF: there’s such a long list there. One major point is that almost none of the cabinet he started with finished for years, and 40 of 44 are not supporting him. In contrast, there have been no cabinet resignations under Biden and the party’s candidate will have the support of all. We need to frame the contest as our successful TEAM vs the worst president ever. And incidentally we need to stretch the team to include the House and the Senate. We have a few months, but only a few months. Lets do this.

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