(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Sure, Let's Party Like It's 1968! [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-07-06 I wasn’t around in 1968, but I heard that year was a doozy. It also happened to be a year of a Presidential election which has some haunting parallels to the 2024 election. The goal of this diary is to persuade people that replacing President Biden, especially at this late date, would be a blunder of CATASTROPHIC proportions. Let’s hop in the DeLorean and head back to the year 1968… HEY HEY LBJ, HOW MANY KIDS DID YOU KILL TODAY? Antiwar protestor bloodied by the police in Chicago at the convention that year. LBJ, like Biden, accomplished many great legislative achievements during his tenure as President. Civil Rights legislation and the Great Society programs were revolutionary and were the capstone of the New Deal era. Biden has passed a similar amount of consequential legislation including his signature Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Yet LBJ was one of the most reviled men in America once 1968 rolled around. How did that happen? A little thing that broke the New Deal Coalition known as the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War was the primary reason for the precipitous decline of President Johnson's popularity. He had escalated U.S. commitment so by late 1967 over 500,000 American soldiers were fighting in Vietnam. Draftees made up 42 percent of the military in Vietnam, but suffered 58% of the casualties, as nearly 1000 Americans a month were killed, and many more were injured. Resistance to the war rose as success seemed ever out of reach. The national news media began to focus on the high costs and ambiguous results of escalation, despite Johnson's repeated efforts to downplay the seriousness of the situation. Substitute the media piling on Biden’s age, and you have THE issue in 2024 which is making Biden unpopular. The anti-Trump coalition is breaking apart because too many are falling for the media’s assertion that Biden cannot do the job. Certainly, Biden has lost a step even when compared to 2020. There is definitely some downplaying happening by his inner circle. However, you’re willing to throw everything away because the MEDIA I hear constant harping about tells you to? An Incumbent Steps Down LBJ had had enough by the time 1968 rolled around. The last time an incumbent President decided not to run for re-election was — you guessed it — 1968. LBJ was on the glide path to be re-nominated by the Democratic Party. No challenger would dare face off against him in the primary election, that is until one did. Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy decided to run against the incumbent in the New Hampshire primary. The challenger wasn’t expecting much to happen and his goal was to change the Vietnam War policy instead of have a serious run for office. The antiwar faction of the Democratic Party rallied behind McCarthy and gave him 42% in the primary, while LBJ garnered 49%. That was the first signal of trouble. Others may point to this moment instead. LBJ knew he was in trouble when news anchor Walter Cronkite turned against the Vietnam War effort. The statement LBJ made is possibly apocryphal, but the sentiment sure rings true. In 2009, an AP reporter said that Johnson decided to end his re-election bid after CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite, who was influential, turned against the president's policy in Vietnam. During a CBS News editorial which aired on February 27, Cronkite recommended the US pursue peace negotiations. After watching Cronkite's editorial, Johnson allegedly exclaimed: "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost Middle America." Either way, the point is that LBJ knew that his nomination for the Democratic Party wasn’t assured, and his general election chances were even worse. For the first and only time since the 22nd Amendment went into effect, an incumbent chose to step down instead of run for re-election. On March 31, 1968, following the New Hampshire primary and Kennedy's entry into the election, the president made a televised speech to the nation and said that he was suspending all bombing of North Vietnam in favor of peace talks. After concluding his speech, Johnson announced, "With America's sons in the fields far away, with America's future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world's hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties, other than the awesome duties of this office — the presidency of your country. Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President. Biden knows what happened next, which is why he is staying in the race. Do you know what happened next after LBJ stepped aside? For those of you angling to push Biden out of the race, you may want to read this next section more carefully. A House Divided… Different factions of the party started coalescing around different candidates. If you think there will be a clean handoff from Biden to whomever replaces him on the ballot, you are SERIOUSLY MISTAKEN. Such an action will expose the fractures in our coalition even worse than him staying in the race will. Look where different factions went after LBJ stepped aside… The first faction consisted of labor unions and big-city party bosses (led by Mayor Richard J. Daley). This group had traditionally controlled the Democratic Party since the days of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and they feared loss of their control over the party. After Johnson's withdrawal this group rallied to support Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's vice-president; it was also believed that President Johnson himself was covertly supporting Humphrey, despite his public claims of neutrality. Richard J. Daley). This group had traditionally controlled the Democratic Party since the days of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, and they feared loss of their control over the party. After Johnson's withdrawal this group rallied to support Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's vice-president; it was also believed that President Johnson himself was covertly supporting Humphrey, despite his public claims of neutrality. The second faction, which rallied behind Senator Eugene McCarthy, was composed of college students, intellectuals, and upper-middle-class urban whites who had been the early activists against the war in Vietnam; they perceived themselves as the future of the Democratic Party. The third group was primarily composed of African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and other minorities, as well as several anti-war groups; these groups rallied behind Senator Robert F. Kennedy. The fourth group consisted of white Southern Democrats. Some older voters, remembering the New Deal's positive impact upon the rural South, supported Vice-president Humphrey. Many would rally behind the third-party campaign of former Alabama Governor George Wallace as a "law and order" candidate. There was no clear successor to LBJ in the party. And no, VP Hubert Humphrey wasn’t a clear successor to the incumbent. He had to fight for the nomination, choosing to schmooze up to party bosses and relying on undemocratic caucuses to clinch the nomination. Amongst the two fighting for the rest of the delegates, RFK and McCarthy basically could not combine forces to deny Humphrey. Here’s how it could possibly work if Biden steps aside: The party bosses and the base of the party will line up behind MVP Harris as the natural successor. The bosses will note truly that Harris is the ONLY candidate that can use the funds already earmarked for Biden’s effort. The party bosses also are afraid of losing their grip on the party to a different faction. The Bernie wing of the party will resist this, and will put forward a candidate of their own. As far as I can tell, there is no clear successor to Sanders, but one should emerge. The anti-Israel protesting brigade will not find any candidate pure enough for them, and will sit out or vote third party. The Never Trump/resistlib wing of the party is freaking out already. They will float numerous alternatives (Whitmer! Shapiro! Liz Cheney!) as they have done since Biden was the nominee in 2020. They are likely angling for the VP slot this time around as they are too new to the party to have much influence. You will have factions defect to Trump. You will have factions defect to RFK, Jr. You will have factions defect to Cornel West and Jill Stein. And most importantly, you will have people sit on their hands and not vote at all. But wait, it gets better! If you think this is bad, just look at the 1968 convention! Sadly, this convention would be child’s play compared to what would be in store in 2024. Home Sweet Chicago The media swarms around one of the Chicago Seven who were arrested at the convention. Of course the 2024 Democratic National Convention HAS to be in Chicago of all places. The site of the 1968 convention. Probably the moment that lost the Democratic Party the election and the final nail in the coffin of the New Deal Coalition. When the 1968 Democratic National Convention opened in Chicago, thousands of young activists from around the nation gathered in the city to protest the Vietnam War. On the evening of August 28, in a clash which was covered on live television, Americans were shocked to see Chicago police brutally beating anti-war protesters in the streets of Chicago in front of the Conrad Hilton Hotel. While the protesters chanted, "The whole world is watching", the police used clubs and tear gas to beat back or arrest the protesters, leaving many of them bloody and dazed. The tear gas wafted into numerous hotel suites; in one of them Vice President Humphrey was watching the proceedings on television. The police said that their actions were justified because numerous police officers were being injured by bottles, rocks, and broken glass that were being thrown at them by the protestors. The protestors had also yelled insults at the police, calling them "pigs" and other epithets. The anti-war and police riot divided the Democratic Party's base: some supported the protestors and felt that the police were being heavy-handed, but others disapproved of the violence and supported the police. Meanwhile, the convention itself was marred by the strong-arm tactics of Chicago's mayor Richard J. Daley (who was seen on television angrily cursing Senator Abraham Ribicoff from Connecticut, who made a speech at the convention denouncing the excesses of the Chicago police). In the end, the nomination itself was anticlimactic, with Vice-president Humphrey handily beating McCarthy and McGovern on the first ballot. Substitute the anti-Israel protestors that have become increasingly brazen in their protests and you have a recipe for outside chaos that will NOT reflect well on the Democratic Party. Given the fact that all of the primaries have already occurred, the delegates are hypothetically free to choose whomever they’d like at the convention if Biden steps down. This is also a recipe for internal chaos — even if the party bosses choose MVP Harris. The news media will broadcast every defection, every instance of chucklefuckery outside, and every move by the police protecting the convention. The media will think of this as the chance of a lifetime and the biggest convention ratings ever. Do we REALLY want to have a repeat of this shameful convention just because Biden is old? If he steps aside, the pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions will be just like the pro-war and antiwar factions trying to decide about Vietnam. Now, the parallels to 1968 are by no means perfect. No political candidate or icon has been assassinated like RFK and MLK were that year. Let us hope that no political candidate does get assassinated though I am worried about it. There isn’t mass unrest in urban areas like there was in 1968 or even 2020. However, hot summers and discontent always lurks and we cannot count it out yet. There isn’t a regional candidate like George Wallace ready to siphon Electoral College votes away. There’s no need for that because Trump is the unholy love child of Nixon and Wallace. RFK, Jr. will siphon critical votes away, but he won’t win any states. The election of a Republican in 1968 did not signal the end of democracy. The election of Trump in 2024 will end the American experiment. The stakes are MUCH higher in 2024 than they were in 1968. It is the stakes being so high that has everyone (including members of Congress who should know better) spooked right now. It leads to people making huger mistakes. And the biggest mistake people in the Democratic Party are making right now is not rallying around the flag. Instead of calling for Biden to drop out, volunteer for him. Instead of shouting out your fantasy nominees, donate to his re-election. Please donate to re-elect Joe Biden! Instead of despairing, convince those who are also despondent that Biden is our man. Don’t rely on one candidate to save our nation. Instead, it takes all of us TOGETHER to fight back against fascism. Remember who the true enemy is! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/6/2251749/-Sure-Let-s-Party-Like-It-s-1968?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/