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Orban’s Grip Over Hungary Is More Brittle Than It Seems? [1]

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Date: 2024-05-01  

Today there was a deep dive into the current Hungarian political situation in World Politics Review that is well worth reading (it only requires an email address to access the whole article by Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in European studies at King’s College London who has a weekly column in WPR):

The recent surge of infighting within Fidesz’s political machine has taken many observers in and outside Hungary by surprise. ... With the shock resignation in early February of President Katalin Novak and former Justice Minister Judit Varga over efforts within the government to cover up a child abuse scandal, tensions within Orban’s power structure have now burst into the open. In response, Peter Magyar—a senior figure within the Orban regime as well as Varga’s ex-husband—resigned from his positions at state-owned enterprises and founded a new political movement with the aim of dismantling a corrupt status quo. By early April, Magyar’s new opposition Tizsa Party was leading mass protests in Budapest and rapidly preparing a nationwide network designed to peel off elected officials and voters among Orban’s political base in smalltown Hungary. The sudden defection of a figure like Magyar, who had long worked at the heart of the Fidesz political machine, is not just the result of a sudden discovery of moral scruples. As with many similar semi- or fully authoritarian regimes, the longer Orban has remained in office, the more entrenched various figures within his inner circle have become at the highest levels of power. For ambitious mid-40s careerists like Magyar, the grim prospect of waiting another decade for Orban’s inner circle—all 60-70 years old—to finally leave the scene was already fueling impatient frustration even before the current wave of scandals engulfed Fidesz. … Even if Magyar falters, the speed with which Fidesz’s internal tensions have turned into an external challenge to its political machine is an indication of how brittle Orban’s grip on power has become. Even the most dominant authoritarian leader will always face dilemmas when it comes to rewarding ambitious young talent without alienating older cronies whose loyalty is the glue that holds a clientelist system together. If Orban is eventually toppled, it should surprise no one if the figures who were once closest to him turn out to be the ruthless operators that finally take him down.

And now from Bloomberg (sorry, paywall), and the Daily Wrap (no paywall), we have evidence that Peter Magyar’s new political movement is starting to gain serious traction:

Peter Magyar's support surges in polls amid Hungarian political upheaval The Hungarian party TISZA, recently taken over by Peter Magyar, a new critic of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is gaining traction in the run-up to the European Parliament (EP) elections, as shown by the latest survey from the Median agency. Having announced his political entry just six weeks ago, Magyar's party has swiftly become the leading opposition force. By the end of April, 24 percent of voters were inclined to support him. Despite these changes, the ruling coalition in Hungary, Fidesz-KDNP, still holds the majority of support at 46 percent. However, Orban's party is currently grappling with the fallout from a scandal that broke in February over the pardoning of an individual convicted of covering up paedophilia. This controversy led to the resignation of President Katalin Novak. The findings from Median are consistent with those from other research institutions. The Iranytu Institute recently revealed that Magyar's party has surpassed all other opposition groups in popularity nationwide. At the same time, the IDEA Institute highlighted the most significant decline in support for Fidesz in years. Polls suggest that the Fidesz-KDNP coalition may struggle to retain its current 13 seats in the EP from Hungary's total allocation of 21. The EP elections in Hungary, set for 9 June, will be held simultaneously with local elections. Orban's government is particularly focused on increasing its representation among those who are critical of aid to Ukraine amid the Russian invasion and those concerned with migration issues.

Let’s hope that Magyar’s party continues to pick up steam and that Orban suffers a very rude surprise in the June 9 elections!

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