(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Why we must demand more for Ukraine (and from Biden) [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-05-31 First diary! Here we go. There was a lot of applause for Biden on this site yesterday for finally allowing “limited” use of US weapons on Russian territory near Kharkiv. I had a strong negative response for three reasons: 1) The decision was too late. Russia accomplished several objectives already (overstretch Ukrainian forces amidst a manpower shortage) 2) The leak matched the decision right away. Ukraine gets zero operational surprise. This is intentional 3) The responses of the Biden admin suggest they are accepting Russian premises rather than attempting to shift the Russian calculus. The rest of the post will provide supporting evidence for the assertions above. But before I go there, it’s worth saying if you believe these assertions, then Biden is simply a lukewarm centrist. He is doing enough on Ukraine to appeal to centrist folks (Republicans who are strong on defense but not isolationist MAGA maniacs, Democrats who are not uniformly anti war). It is helpful to just acknowledge that first. This policy — even if it kills Ukrainians and emboldens Russia — is smart domestic politics. I trust everyone here is smart enough to decide what they want to conclude about their personal activism without me telling them what to do. I just want to lay out why the facts of the three assertions above are true. While the organization of these points is my work, I have no relevant expertise and everything I say is based on what I have read about this war. Hence, my arguments will just be links to key points made by smarter observers! 1) The decision was late and served Russian Objectives. A. Ukraine has a major attrition and (wo-)man power issue x 3/6 russia understands that a ceasefire is not in its favor, as the current situation presents its best chance to make progress on the front. Ukraine is facing manpower shortages and incomplete fortifications, and its mobilization will take months to show results. pic.twitter.com/TUNT2GDKDD — Artur Rehi (@ArturRehi) May 25, 2024 B. Russian Objectives were to cause Ukraine to redeploy already taxed forces. They succeeded x Ukraine analysis: 1. Kharkiv Front: - The Russians have opened a new front and a new axis of attack, from Belgorod. The main objective is to redeploy Ukrainian forces from Donbas to Kharkiv. This has already happened - units of the 47th Mechanised, 92nd Kholodny Yar, 93rd… pic.twitter.com/mgULVIjkY0 — Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦 (@RaduHossu) May 13, 2024 2) The US (Biden) denied operational surprise to Ukraine and continues to do so. A. There was no prior notice to Ukraine about the policy shift. Yesterday we got three articles about leaks from the Biden admin and everyone here celebrated. Today Ukraine is being a lot more aggressive. x Belgorod PR is awake tonight ❗ This is how summer began in the Belgorod region. Loud tonight 📣😁 Hot season 👙🔥🤙 pic.twitter.com/ulXpLZ1JDV — LX (@LXSummer1) May 31, 2024 Ukraine’s aggression today is not working as well as it could. Perhaps the public warning yesterday helped Russia. x BREAKING: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine began attacking Russia with NATO missiles near Belgorod. For now, the Russian army managed to intercept them. pic.twitter.com/gwa7II7WAU — Megatron (@Megatron_ron) May 31, 2024 B. Very informed war observers are noticing that there are incredible targets Ukraine COULD have hit, but had no permission, and then missed the opportunity x I've been looking at these same places too, and the frustration is growing. The Scholzing among major decision makers when it comes to UA aid has to stop. Now. https://t.co/LFrQ6PiiRY — Def Mon (@DefMon3) May 31, 2024 C. The direct result of Biden delays is that Ukrainians must die as they kill Russian attacks, rather than preemptively killing enemy firepower. x 4/ Are there any valuable targets left? Yes, there are still valuable targets in areas bordering Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukraine will predominantly deal with company and battalion-level threats rather than neutralizing entire regimental combat capabilities with few strikes. pic.twitter.com/r8g3iTEGp8 — Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 31, 2024 3. The reasons for this policy of emboldening Russia are because we accept their narrative that escalation is our fault, not theirs A) The Russian Narrative is that this war is NATO vs. Russia, and if this continues, Russia will have to use nuclear weapons. x Medvedev warns: The conflict with the West is developing into the worst scenarios, and no one can rule out that it will escalate to the final stage. Russia is not bluffing when it talks about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons. pic.twitter.com/YcRezdgcRd — War Intel (@warintel4u) May 31, 2024 B) Plenty of smart folks want to call the bluff x Once again @AdamKinzinger & @general_ben make the case to the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike within russia using western supplied weapons, and plead to stop taking Putin’s empty nuclear escalation threats seriously. https://t.co/cavr8MQpiX — Yogi (@TippiYogi) May 30, 2024 x The argument that the Biden administration is not allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike in Russia because of escalation concerns but is also pushing Ukraine to strike Russian early warning radar to demonstrate it isn't concerned with nuclear threats makes no sense. https://t.co/qNsPzvI7CZ — Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 28, 2024 I hope you are somewhat convinced that 1) Yesterday’s decision was late and enabled Russian success initially. 2) The result was Ukrainian loss of life and less effective punitive action on Russia and 3) The rationale for slow and late action is consistent with Russian narratives If you believe above, there may be a case for you to shift your personal activism to be more vocal in support of Ukraine and more questioning of Biden (even as you support him). I hope you consider doing so. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/31/2244045/-Why-we-must-demand-more-for-Ukraine-and-from-Biden?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/