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Just the Stats, Man: Weekly Canvass Wrapup from AZ, FL, GA, MD, MI, MT, NC, NV, OH, PA, TX & WI [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-06-01  

Hope Springs from Field volunteers knocked on 175,162 doors last week. That’s 90,000 fewer doors, due to ~12,000 fewer volunteers. Again, i note that this accounts for the drop off you see in these graphs. At every door, we left a piece of literature touting Biden and the Democrats, which remains our biggest expense (by far).

Early turnout this year continues to be driven by volunteers wanting to circulate their state’s petitions. In states that don’t have an abortion-related amendment on the ballot in November, the national conversation about Reproductive Freedom and the Trump threat (even if unacknowledged) and a National Abortion Ban seems to be driving volunteers to show up everywhere.

Volunteers talked to 16,220 voters in these seven states — or about 5,500 fewer than last week. Of those, 10,434 voters answered questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part. Again, i’d like to point out the difference between the number of voter responses we collect each week compared to what you will find on the polls that you read about in the media. We are getting response to more than 10 times more voters than public pollsters are reporting, and we are doing this every week. It just has to be said.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

In total, Hope Springs volunteers have now collected 142,451 verified petitions from valid voters in the four states who live at the address from which they were registered to get Reproductive Rights amendments on the November ballot. This is not the number of signatures volunteers have collected but the number volunteers have turned in and organizers have matched to ensure the signer was registered to vote at the address they provided on the petition.

Hope Springs volunteers registered 36 new voters and re-registered 99 voters at their current address. We differentiate new registrants from re-registrants because we engage in follow-up communications with the people that we (newly) register to vote. If you are interested in participating in our Postcards to New Voters Project , you can sign up here . (The diary on this can be found here .) We especially need help this year since we are not limiting our Postcards to New Voters effort to those new voters that Hope Springs or its partners registered to vote.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

We began knocking on doors again in Arizona (and Florida) on March 2nd, talking to voters, collecting signatures for the Abortion Ballot Initiative, raising the Democratic banner and collecting data that will help Democratic candidates get voters to the polls in 2024. Hope Springs volunteers have now collected 53,037 verified petitions from valid Arizona voters who live at the address from which they are registered (we match voters with their address to petitions on an ongoing basis).

In Arizona, 216 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in the western and southern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson. Weather was milder last weekend than the prior one, although it still got in the 90s. Kind of typical this time of year.

We knocked on 15,487 doors in Arizona and talked to 1,373 voters. 920 of those voters answered at least some of the questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 11 voters. 40 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

(Rising) Prices was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday. Border Security and/or Immigration was the #2 issue voters raised. Reproductive Freedom and Abortion Rights was third. This list is unchanged from the prior weekend.

Biden Approval among the Arizonans we talked to was 48% last Saturday. Disapproval was 12%. Remember that we are knocking on doors of Democrats or unaffiliated voters; we endeavor not to knock on any doors where all voters in the household are Republicans (and will ask for a specific voter when it is a mixed household), but i think this is the first week in Arizona where Biden’s job approval number increased while his disapproval number fell. We only rarely talk to Republicans given how we cut turf.

20% approved of Sinema, while 34% disapproved. We’ve been asking about the likely Democratic Senate nominee, Ruben Gallego, since Sinema left the Democratic Party; 51% of the voters we talked to on Saturday approved of Gallego. 53% approved of the Governor, Katie Hobbs. 9% disapproved.

In Florida, we continue to knock on doors in Clay, Dade, Monroe, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia and Duval counties. 265 volunteers came out last Saturday, knocked on 19,451 doors and talked to 1,740 voters. 1,126 Issues Surveys were completed, with 3 new voters registered and 6 voters re-registered (all using the Secretary of State website). 46 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Hope Springs volunteers have collected 55,994 verified petitions from valid voters who lived at the address from which they were registered. We match voter data with the voter database for those who sign the petitions our volunteers circulate before submitting them.

The Top Issue in Florida last Saturday was The Economy. Housing Concerns and Insurance (Price) Increases was the second most frequently cited Issue. Political Extremism was the third. One voter complained about how that is affecting their Home Owner Association meetings.

46% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden is doing in Florida. 14% disapproved. 14% approved of the job Rick Scott was doing; 32% disapproved. 15% approved of the job Ron DeSantis is doing; 28% disapproved.

218 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in the Atlanta suburbs and in southern Georgia Blackbelt counties. We knocked on 15,848 doors and talked to 1,358 voters. 878 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey (also up from the prior week!).

We registered 8 new voters and re-registered 12 voters. 12 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms, so really an atypical weekend in Georgia.

The Economy was the Top Issue in Georgia on Saturday. Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second. Reproductive Freedom or Rights was third. We are still collecting data on single issue voters, and it doesn’t really seem to matter if “abortion is on the ballot” or not — right now, voters tell us, abortion is definitely on the ballot.

Biden Approval among the Georgians we talked to was 49% last Saturday. Like last year, rises in Biden approval ratings in Georgia tend to be a result of talking to more minority voters. 11% of the voters we talked to disapproved of the president. 33% approved of the Governor, Brian Kemp. 26% disapproved. Kemp support is slowly recovering in the eyes of Democrats and unaffiliated voters in Georgia. At least from the voters we are talking to.

185 volunteers came out last Saturday for just our third (iirc) week of canvassing in Maryland. Weather and the primary interrupted our work, and, yet, we had a great turnout! Volunteers knocked on 12,913 doors and talked to 1,179 voters. 759 answered questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 1 voter and re-registered 4 voters at their current address. 17 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms.

(Rising or High) Prices was the Number 1 Issue with the voters we talked to. Infrastructure Needs was second. Reproductive Freedom or Rights was third.

Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 50% last Saturday in Maryland. 9% of the voters we talked to disapproved of the president. 38% approved of Democratic Senate nominee Angela Alsobrooks. 56% approved of the Governor Moore. 5% disapproved.

205 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Michigan last Saturday in our third canvass of this year (too). Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 14,493 doors last Saturday and talked to 1,287 voters. 832 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey. We registered 2 voters and re-registered 8 voters at their current address. 33 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms.

The Economy was the Number 1 Issue in Michigan on Saturday. Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second. Education Concerns (not related to Campus Protests, but costs and Summer Jobs) was third.

Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 49% last Saturday. 11% disapproved of the president. 51% approved of the Governor Whitmer. 8% disapproved.

In Montana, we are not officially canvassing right now. We are cutting turf for the volunteers who want to circulate petitions, of the Democrats who live in their area. This was requested as many Montanans are unaware of their fellow Democrats, especially those voters who are not active or vocal. So far, we have distributed 205 pieces of turf; several volunteers have taken multiple walk lists for their signature gathering efforts.

So far, we have validated or verified the voter status and address of 3,384 voter signatures in Montana.

In Nevada, 237 volunteers came out to canvass in the Las Vegas area (NV-01 & NV-03) and Reno suburbs. We knocked on 17,395 doors and talked to 1,577 voters. 989 answered questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 3 new voters and re-registered 7 voters, updating their current address. 30 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms.

Hope Springs volunteers have now collected (to date) 30,036 verified petitions from valid voters for the Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Nevada. Nevada needed 103,000 valid signatures of registered voters in the state by June 26 to get on the ballot; more than 200,000 signatures have now been turned in.

(Rising) Prices or Inflation was the Top Issue in Nevada last Saturday. Housing Issues and Housing Insurance Prices was second. Immigration remained third.

Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 47% last Saturday. 12% disapproved of the president. 52% approved of their Senator, Jacky Rosen. Rosen is definitely in for a fight, not because she has a competitive opponent, but because the political environment in Nevada is tumultuous right now. 9% disapproved. 26% approved of the Governor, Joe Lombard. 21% disapproved. Lombard is a Republican, and much better known in the Las Vegas area.

198 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in North Carolina. We are focusing on the new (NC Republicans gerrymandered the state again this year) North Carolina Congress-ional District map, and, specifically, NC-01, NC-07, NC-09 and NC-13, this year. We knocked on 14,196 doors and talked to 1,243 voters. 804 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey. We re-registered 7 voters, updating their voting addresses. 22 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 1 voter filled out an Incident Report.

Economic Uncertainty was the Top Issue in North Carolina on Saturday. Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second. Concern over Political Violence was third.

Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 46% last Saturday. 15% disapproved of the president. 50% approved of the Governor, Roy Cooper. 11% disapproved.

You might have noticed that there seems to be a national trend here, and not the kind we have been looking for. It’s a wee bit disconcerting.

279 volunteers showed up last Saturday in Ohio to knock on doors in the competitive OH-01, OH-09 and OH-13 Congressional Districts. They knocked on 20,283 doors on Saturday. Ohio was the only state where we knocked on 20,000+ doors last weekend. In the prior weekend, only North Carolina had not met that mark. Hope Springs volunteers talked to 1,722 voters, and 1,102 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey.

We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 12 voters, updating their current address. 15 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms.

(Rising) Prices or Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Ohioans we talked to on Saturday. Political Extremism was the #2 issue voters raised. Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was third.

Biden’s Job Approval was at 47%; 11% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 51% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Brown was doing while 8% expressed Disapproval. 31% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. DeWine was doing a good job, 32% said they disapproved of the job he was doing. There seems to be some reaction to incumbents in lockstep there.

227 volunteers showed up to knock on doors in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh regions last Saturday. They knocked on 16,457 doors and talked to 1,476 voters. 944 voters completed questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part. Despite the fact that it was a holiday weekend, it was our most successful canvass yet (in 2024) in Pennsylvania.

The Economy was the Top Issue last Saturday in the state. The prospect or concern over Political Violence was the Second most cited Issue. Crime was third.

Biden’s Job Approval was at 49%; 12% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 52% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Casey was doing while 7% said they Disapproved. 51% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Shapiro was doing a good job, 19% (!) said they disapproved of the job he was doing.

261 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in Texas. We knocked on 18,713 doors and talked to 1,586 voters. 1,010 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 20 voters. 27 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

We are canvassing in Texas because of the Senate race. We didn’t canvass there last year but our absence meant that data we collect didn’t make it into VAN last year; volunteers wanted to give Democrats the best possible chance to defeat Ted Cruz — who can argue with that. Democratic candidates need this data, Democratic voters need to get that kind of direct or in person voter contact. So it’s an experiment.

The Economy was the Top Issue in Texas. Housing and Housing Insurance Issues was second and Border Security was third. This was also a repeat in issues priority from last week.

Biden Approval among the Texans we talked to was 46% last Saturday. 9% of the voters we talked to disapproved of the president. 14% of the voters voiced approval of Ted Cruz; 31% disapproved. We have also been asking about job approval of Colin Allred, the Democrat running against Ted Cruz. 39% of the voters we talked to approved of the job he’s been doing. 15% approved of the Governor, Greg Abbot. 33% disapproved. Abbott does seem to be a character that evokes public opinion.

But these are the kinds of notes that volunteers take and organizers fed into VAN. Democratic candidates will be able to use this information in the Fall. This is the benefit of using voter-led voter contact.

269 volunteers came out to canvass in Wisconsin in Milwaukee (where we are canvassing in African-American wards) and its suburbs (the WOW counties), as well as Kenosha, Waukesha and Dane counties. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 19,556 doors and talked to 1,679 voters. 1,070 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.

Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was the Top Concern among the Wisconsin voters we talked to on Saturday. The Economy was the second most frequently cited concern. Voter Concerns over Political Extremism was third.

Biden’s Approval numbers in Wisconsin was 50% last Saturday. His Disapproval number was 8%. Senator Baldwin’s Job Approval was 55% with 9% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Evers, meanwhile, was 48%; Disapproval was 12% last Saturday.

I do want to repeat that if you are interested in participating in our Postcards to New Voters Project, you can sign up here. (The diary on this can be found here.) We especially need help this year since we are not limiting our Postcards to New Voters effort to those new voters that Hope Springs or its partners registered to vote. Basically, every new voter in the swing Congressional Districts in our Swing States will be included in this effort for 2024.

And if you are able to support this kind of intensive grassroots organizing and voter contact, we would certainly appreciate your financial support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024

We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters. We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season. All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database.

We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods.

But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach. We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing. We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work. Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns). After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.

As you can see from the very first question in the Issues Questionnaire, making sure that voters are registered from their current address is a major function of early canvassing. In Florida, given the current laws, we offer up a tablet with the Secretary of State website up so that voters can register or update their information themselves. Part of this is making sure that voters are registered in compliance to the new, confusing and frustrating Election law that is particularly onerous for people who change residences more frequently than normal. But registering new voters (and re-registering existing voters at their current address, in compliance with HAVA) at their door is also critical to our approach. Arizona has a much more friendly voter registration system, including the ability to opt in to permanent early voting. Of course, canvassing is the hard way to do voter registration, but we catch people that our voter registration campaigns can miss because of their emphasis on larger-scale or mass voter registration.

In Florida, though, the new law requires voters to provide, in addition to their date of birth, the last four digits of their Social Security number OR their driver license OR state ID card number to make an address change. Which is par for the course this year, but here’s the part that is likely to stump people who move around. You have to remember which one you provided, because you have to provide the same one every single time you interact with your local Supervisor of Elections, or your request won’t be granted. Supervisors of Elections won’t have access to other databases, so they can only "verify” a request by the information the voter has provided. But this is something we have learned to track so that if the voter registration was not successful, we can go back.

We also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. So far there haven’t been significant changes in the laws but we still ask about fears and experience vis-a-vis elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine Republican efforts to throw Democrats off the voter rolls, informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.

2023 Hope Springs expenses

We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File.

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