(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . "A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose reelection." [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-02 What could go wrong? While it’s too soon to know how or if the conviction will affect the upcoming election, Trump’s defiance and his allies’ continued optimism that the outcome will ultimately help Trump has been a steady theme since the jury announced the verdict on Thursday. Murkowski did not offer any commentary on the verdict other than to say that it is the “first step in the legal process” and that she expects Trump to appeal it. “These distractions have given the Biden campaign a pass as the focus has shifted from Biden’s indefensible record and the damage his policies have done to Alaska and our nation’s economy, to Trump’s legal drama,” Murkowski said on X . Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a frequent Trump critic who also voted in 2021 to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, said Friday that the guilty verdict in his hush money criminal trial — and his other legal problems — have made him a flawed challenger against Biden. Commentators claim that the verdict will not dent Trump’s support with his base. Maybe so; that remains to be seen. However, Trump cannot win the presidency with his base alone. He needs to win over moderate swing voters who are most likely to react negatively to the verdict. Even a small defection of moderate voters might be enough to hamper his chances of victory. According to my 13 Keys to the White House prediction system, which has correctly forecast the outcome of presidential elections since 1984, Trump was already facing a tough path to election. Although I have not made a final prediction, I have noted that a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose reelection. After decades of crookedness, it’s finally official: Trump is a felon. His lifelong battle against accountability has been lost. @DavidCornDC 's latest: https://t.co/5HnJoX1qf7 Cheryl Bader, a clinical associate professor of law at Fordham University School of Law, said these motions are typical when a defendant is convicted. The defense attorneys will ask the judge to overturn the jury’s conviction. “It’s rarely, rarely granted, and I don’t think there’s a chance that will happen in this case,” she told us in a phone interview. Blanche told CNN that if the motions aren’t successful, “then as soon as we can appeal, we will. And the process in New York is there’s a sentencing, and then — and then we appeal from there.” Bader, a former assistant U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, walked us through the appeals process. “The case is considered completed at sentencing,” she said. “At that point, his lawyers file a notice of appeal … letting the court know that he intends to appeal.” At that point, they will also request a “stay” on the sentence, meaning a pause on imposing the sentence while the case is being appealed. This appeal goes to the Appellate Division, First Judicial Department in Manhattan. The appeals court doesn’t retry the case. “They’re not going to substitute their judgment on the facts for the jury’s judgment,” Bader explained. Instead, “they’re looking for where there was error that would have led to an improper prosecution or an unfair trial.” The appeals process would take several months to a year, she said. After the notice of appeal is given, the record of the case is gathered, including trial transcripts, the indictment, pretrial motions, evidentiary rulings, jury selection and instructions, and more. Trump could also appeal the sentencing. The lawyers need to write their arguments for all of the issues they’re objecting to, and that takes time, Bader said. And then the appeals court needs to consider the case and write a decision on it. If Trump ultimately isn’t successful at the appellate level, he can appeal to the highest court in New York state, which is called the Court of Appeals. But the court decides whether or not it takes the case. After such an appeal to the highest state court, the case would be over — unless Trump tries to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. But there has to be a U.S. constitutional issue for that. “I don’t see one,” Bader said, but perhaps Trump’s lawyers would try to make an argument. www.factcheck.org/... [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/2/2244343/--A-lot-would-have-to-go-wrong-for-Biden-to-lose-reelection?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/