(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . 6/4 Renewable Tuesday: Carbon's Death of a Billion Cuts [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-04 We need to replace all of the fossil fuel powered electricity generation plants, thousands of them, but we also need to replace cars, gas stoves, water heaters, air conditioners, and more by the billions, and greatly expand electricity distribution networks all over the world. We have to activate many governments by voting and issue activism, but each one of us has individual steps to take, to cut off another slice of Fossil Foolishness. Cue screaming, which is your cue to do even more of it. New Report: The ETC [Energy Transitions Commission] calls for a rapid phase-down of fossil fuel demand and supply A new report by the Energy Transitions Commission, Fossil Fuels in Transition: Committing to the phase-down of all fossil fuels, says that use of coal, oil and gas must be reduced dramatically by 2050, with reductions starting now. Fossil fuel-related emissions amount to about 38 Gt of CO 2 e,[1] of which 6 Gt result from the production, transport, and processing of fossil fuels. These “scope 1 and 2 emissions” can and must be rapidly reduced with CO 2 emitted down 55% by 2030, and methane from oil and gas operations down 70% by that date. But over 80% of fossil-related emissions (~31.5 Gt in 2022) result from the combustion of fossil fuels in use. It is therefore also essential to rapidly phase down the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels. By 2050, coal use can and must fall around 80-85% from 2022 levels, gas by 55-70%, and oil by 75-95%. And this reduction can and must start now, with coal use needing to decrease around 15-30% by 2030, gas by 15-20% and oil by 5-15%. It is all well started, so that we are at Peak Carbon and Peak Pollution now, and it is all downhill from here. We will achieve those reductions well before 2050. Few market analysts (much less bureaucrats and politicians) have been able to come to grips with exponential growth in renewables, and exponential decline in fossil fuels, thus. The logistic function and market growth We have seen it over and over—candles→whale oil→kerosene→gas→incandescent lights→LED lights, for example. So let’s look at each sector where we need to make cuts to the old and build out new. We are pumping out 38.3 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent every year, which we have to drive down to Net Zero, and then much further. There is about a teraton of carbon dioxide to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans. The world is mostly talking about Net Zero by 2050, which is where I will start today (and getting back to 280 ppm CO 2 , and even lower, in who knows when?). Demand World Energy Outlook 2023: Overview and key findings In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, electrification and efficiency gains proceed even faster, leading to a decline in primary energy of 1.2% per year to 2030. That’s a combination of increased demand in developing countries, offsetting decreases in the richest countries. UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Affordable and clean energy At the current pace, about 660 million people will still lack access to electricity and close to 2 billion people will still rely on polluting fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030. Renewable sources power nearly 30 per cent of energy consumption in the electricity sector, but challenges remain in heating and transport sectors. Developing countries experience 9.6 per cent annual growth in renewable energy installation, but despite enormous needs, international financial flows for clean energy continue to decline. SOLAR COOKERS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC PLAN 2023 - 2027 (PDF) Expand information gathering and dissemination efforts. Could include developing enhanced climate benefit data, solar cooker performance data (could include additional factors such as safety, durability, trends, efficiency), more thorough surveys & repeat surveys of solar uptake in localities around the world and developing information which could be useful in carbon credit work. Could also include qualitative and quantitative research on what facilitates adoption and what facilitates continued use; a review of literature on adoption and impact practices from other sectors. The big questions are why there isn’t more of this, and how solar cookers can be made from local materials by local businesses. I don’t mean sheet metal, glass, plywood, and plastic. Well, we’ll have to go into much more detail in another chapter of this tale. Subsidies IMF, 2023: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Surged to Record $7 Trillion Scaling back subsidies would reduce air pollution, generate revenue, and make a major contribution to slowing climate change You know, $7 trillion a year is about what some denialists claim it would cost us to convert to renewables, without admitting that we would save far more than that, and boost the global economy with such investments by tens of trillions a year. Fact Sheet | Proposals to Reduce Fossil Fuel Subsidies (January 2024) In 2022, fossil fuel subsidies in the United States totaled $757 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund. This includes $3 billion in explicit subsidies and $754 billion in implicit subsidies, which are costs like negative health impacts and environmental degradation that are borne by society at large rather than producers (i.e., negative externalities). Legislation proposed in the 118th Congress (2023-2024) to reduce or reform fossil fuel subsidies includes: End Oil and Gas Tax Subsidies Act of 2023 ( R.1483 ), which would repeal fossil fuel tax breaks (like the FY 2024 budget). ), which would repeal fossil fuel (like the FY 2024 budget). People Over Petroleum Act (R.1743), which would repeal the same tax credits as H.R.1483 and provide Americans a $500 rebate from the elimination of the subsidies. Carbon Taxes If we had a global carbon tax of $50/ton of CO 2 e, that would raise $190 billion for a while, decreasing as we make further progress toward Net Zero. Are We Ready for a Global Carbon Tax? YSE [Yale School of the Environment] Professor of Economics Matthew Kotchen discusses the viability of Africa’s call for a global carbon tax — the benefits and substantial roadblocks. There are at least 70 different and fragmented approaches to carbon pricing around the world, including carbon taxes, emissions trade systems (ETS), and indirect carbon pricing through fuel taxes. The U.S, currently does not have a carbon tax on a national level. In the U.S, 12 Eastern states that together make up the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, as well as California and Washington, have cap and trade programs. The WTO, which has and has been working with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to streamline carbon pricing, has launched a task force to create a global methodology to determine carbon pricing. That’s fine, but how much? There isn’t any agreement on that. You can get an idea of the range of taxes that have been applied from this World Bank data. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing Dashboard We will do a much deeper dive into carbon pricing some time. For now, let me remind you of my posts Renewable Tuesday 9/12: Carbon Taxes vs. Subsidies; More Sources Economics Books: Arthur Pigou on Carbon Taxes Fossil Fuel Powered Electricity Generation The world burns about 8 gigatonnes of coal in a year, and 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, where a cubic meter of gas has a mass of 0.68 kg. That’s something like 3 GTon. There are about 2200 coal power plants in the world, about half of them in China. Hardly any are economical, and all should be shut down ASAP. In order to do that, we have to build out renewables to replace them all, which is happening in many countries. China and India are setting records for building renewables, and China may be about to turn downward, at Peak Coal, shutting down more than they continue to build. Statista: GHG emissions in India - Statistics & Facts A rising population, a rapidly growing economy, and increased fossil energy consumption have all contributed to emissions in India soaring in recent decades. This has seen the South Asian country’s share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rise to more than seven percent, making it the world’s third-largest GHG polluter, behind the United States and China. Nevertheless, India has the lowest per capita emissions in the G20, at just 1.9 tCO₂ per person, or roughly an eighth of what the average American emits per year. Its contribution to historical cumulative CO₂ emissions is also far lower than that of other major polluters, at just three percent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced several commitments India aims to meet as it works toward tackling climate change. These include reducing the carbon intensity of the economy by at least 45 percent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, meeting 50 percent of energy demand through non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by 2030, and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. India is planning to increase coal output over the coming years as it looks to meet the growing energy demands brought on by surging industrialization and urbanization, as well as increased spending power. Solar power drives record renewable energy growth in India India has recorded its highest annual installed renewable energy capacity of 18.5 gigawatts (GW) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, with March installations peaking at 7.1 GW, surpassing the previous record of 3.5 GW set in March 2022, Rystad Energy reported. The surge in installations, predominantly driven by solar energy, is a significant step towards India's target of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2031-32, a goal set in alignment with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for a net-zero emissions country by 2070. Piker. Foreign Policy: China May Soon Hit Peak Coal In a major turning point for the world, China’s fossil fuel use is projected to decline starting in 2025. In its annual World Energy Outlook, released last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that China’s fossil fuel use would peak next year and start to fall in 2025. The number of gas-fired power plants is comparable. Renewables are cheaper than gas, so these plants should also be closed ASAP, as fast as renewables can be built to replace them. Canary Media: Chart: Renewables are on track to keep getting cheaper and cheaper A new report says that ongoing improvements in solar and wind tech will keep driving steep cost declines that make them even more competitive against fossil fuels. Burning methane produces less CO 2 than burning coal, but leaking methane turns out to much worse for health and the environment than previously thought. We need to shut down all of the oil and gas wells properly, find all of the other leaks, switch from gas stoves to induction cookers, and switch from water and space heaters to heat pumps. New satellites are making it possible to locate these sources. Now that they can’t hide any more, even the fracking industry claims to be on board with all of this. New Renewables Canary Media: The world is building renewable energy faster than ever before An estimated 507 gigawatts of renewable electricity were added to grids around the world in 2023 — a new record, and an almost 50 percent year-over-year increase from 2022. That’s the fastest growth rate renewable additions have seen in over two decades. Last year, renewables made up about 30 percent of total electricity generation, up from 25 percent in 2018. By 2028, renewables are expected to account for over 40 percent of global electricity — 7,300 gigawatts — or 7.3 terawatts, if you like — of total renewable capacity by 2028, a 75 percent increase over the cumulative 4.1 terawatts in 2023. And yet, despite this astounding growth, that would still fall short of the goal set at COP28 last year of tripling renewables by 2030 — a target that would require total renewable capacity to reach 11,000 gigawatts. That means that we need more factories for wind turbines and solar panels all over the world, and more skilled workers, and more research to bring down costs. Which means we need to invest (not spend) more money, at vast rates of Return on Investment. Storage We are at more than 50 GW battery storage, and we expect to need a terawatt worldwide by 2050. Statista: Installed electricity generation capacity from battery storage worldwide in 2022 with a forecast to 2050 Battery prices are still plunging, and new chemistries continue to appear. Storage will be competing with EVs for lithium, but there is no shortage of lithium resources. Also, Long-duration energy storage poised to outcompete lithium-ion batteries While most long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies are still early-stage and costly compared to lithium-ion batteries, some have already or are set to achieve lower costs for longer durations, finds BloombergNEF. Evaluation of volcanic ash as a low-cost high-temperature thermal energy storage material for concentrated solar power April 2024, Journal of Energy Storage 89 Cars According to the EIA, almost 14 million new electric cars were registered globally in 2023, bringing their total number on the roads to 40 million. There are nearly 1.5 billion cars in the world now, and with the growth of so many countries, we expect to need twice that in 2050. That’s seven doublings from today. Various analysts claim that there will still be hundreds of millions of ICE cars on the road in 2050, which seems to mean that most of them will be more than 20 years old. I don’t believe it. I attribute these prognostications to severe lack of imagination. Gas Stoves Al Jazeera: Not everyone has the luxury to ditch ‘harmful’ gas stoves Healthier and more environmentally friendly alternatives are not immediately accessible to billions of people in Asia and Africa. Globally, an estimated 2.8 billion people, making up a third of the population, still use the dirtiest fuels for cooking, such as firewood, charcoal, coal, dung, crop waste and kerosene. In Asia, two billion people, comprising 44 percent of the population, use these unclean fuels for cooking. Meanwhile, 19 of the 20 countries with the lowest access rates to clean cooking are in Africa. In 2020, 923 million people in the continent used dirty fuels for cooking – that is nine out of 10 people in sub-Saharan Africa, the only region globally where those without access to clean fuels are increasing. If the status quo in sub-Saharan Africa fails to change in the near future, with the expected population increase, 1.1 billion Africans in 2030 will be choking in their kitchens. OK, first we get solar cookers to these villages, then we get electricity to all of the villages and farms and schools and such, then we talk about making induction cookers and electric teakettles and such available everywhere. Water Heaters and Air Conditioners Global Heat Pump Statistics About 190 million heat pump units were in operation in buildings worldwide in 2021. In the same year, record high growth in heat pump sales was registered in particular in Europe, China and the United States. Heat pumps still meet only around 10% of the global heating need in buildings though, below the deployment level required to get on track with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. In this scenario, the global heat pump stock reaches about 600 million by 2030, covering at least 20% of global heating needs. That’s less than two doublings in the next six years. We can discuss it. Electricity Distribution Networks White House announces actions to modernize electrical grid The White House on Tuesday will announce steps to modernize America’s aging electrical infrastructure. The new initiative between the feds and 21 states aims to make faster fixes and improvements to the grid, committing to build a bigger and more modern grid as part of a larger effort to reduce power outages and increase electrical transmission capacity. National climate adviser called the new initiative “unprecedented”. We are investing tens of billions — the most significant public investment in a generation — to strengthen our grid to prevent power outages in the face of extreme weather, bolster US energy security, and drive innovation. Replacing Wires Could Double How Much Electricity The US Grid Can Handle The technique is known as “advanced reconductoring” and is widely used in other countries. But many US utilities have been slow to embrace it because of their unfamiliarity with the technology as well as regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles, according to new research. Today in the US, most power lines consist of steel cores surrounded by strands of aluminum, a design that has been used for a century. Twenty years ago, several companies developed cables that used smaller, lighter cores such as carbon fiber that could hold more aluminum. Ultra-high-voltage electricity transmission in China First DC connection between Europe and North Africa gets €45 million from EIB Elmed, set to become the first direct current (DC) connection between Europe and North Africa, has secured €45 million in funding from the European Investment Bank (EIB). The power line, designed as a monopole with sea return, will run from the electrical substation at Partanna in Sicily to the substation at Mlaabi on the Tunisian peninsula of Capo Bon, for a total length of 220 kilometers, of which 200 is undersea cable. It will have a capacity of 600 MW, DC voltage of 500 kV and a maximum depth of approximately 800 meters. Construction is expected to start this year, with project completion anticipated in 2028. x 20 hours energy a day from Morocco to the UK, via 3,800 km of HVDC interconnectors. Wind, solar and (presumably) storage. Tasty!https://t.co/EzPbecqZKO pic.twitter.com/g52a3QIJcf — Climatehope (@Climatehope2) November 29, 2023 Australia-Asia Power Link The Australia–Asia Power Link (AAPowerLink) is a proposed electricity infrastructure project that is planned to include the world's largest solar plant, the world's largest battery, and the world's longest submarine power cable. Initial plans forecast that a new solar farm in the Northern Territory of Australia would produce up to 20 gigawatts of electricity, most of which would be exported to Singapore, and at a later point Indonesia, by a 4,500 km (2,800 mi) 3 GW HVDC transmission line. Power transmission to Singapore would start in the 2030s. Further Reading IEA50: Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector IEA50: Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023 BNEF: Tripling Global Renewables by 2030: Hard, Fast and Achievable The last tripling of renewable energy capacity took 12 years, and this next tripling must take eight. 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