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The Republic survives in India [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-06-04  

This is going to be a stream of consciousness diary. Mr. Modi was running for a 3rd 5-year term. His party ended up winning 239 out of 545 seats. But he has coalition partners who take his alliance to 290 seats. So, it is likely that he will end up forming a coalition government.

Several points… in no particular order.



Mr. Modi just gave a speech, and spoke of jobs, development, education. This is quite remarkable, because before the results came out, his speeches were mostly on how Muslims were going to steal jewelry and cows and other miscellaneous goods from good Hindus. His language, and words, during the campaign were quite remarkable in the nearly open calls to bigotry. He had kept this persona quite well camouflaged for the last 10 years.

For the last several years, most institutions in India had been bent to serve Mr. Modi’s will. This includes the press, the judiciary, the investigative agencies, the social media companies (including both Twitter and Facebook), and (most worryingly) the election commission. It was generally assumed that India was headed towards one-party rule, and most institutions were bending to that assumption.

Mr. Modi’s model for India was simple. One nation. One leader. One enemy. This is the European model for nations and cannot possibly work in a diverse country like India. But… can it? Is it possible that a strong personality can bend a nation to his will ? That was the doubt that was starting to creep into foundational, axiomatic statements that we build our lives on. Let us see what the future holds

This is the European model for nations and cannot possibly work in a diverse country like India. But… can it? Is it possible that a strong personality can bend a nation to his will ? That was the doubt that was starting to creep into foundational, axiomatic statements that we build our lives on. Let us see what the future holds It is not a guarantee that Mr. Modi will lead the next government. If he does, he will be beholden to political leaders from two states. One of them is one of the most advanced states in India. The other one is the most backward state in India. He will be forced to cater to the economic demands of those two states. This would be a good thing ~ he has largely been oblivious to those responsibilities for the last 10 years.

Yesterday, some of my friends were hoping to keep Mr. Modi’s coalition below 400 seats (out of 545 total seats in the Parliament). Their rationale was simple. Roughly translated, it was thus: If we keep him below 400, we will have survived. If we survive, then we will live to fight another day. They were ready to celebrate if his coalition came in at 399. Survival (of the Republic) is not something you take for granted. Today, they are all planning for a future in which they can put Mr. Modi behind them. It really was that dire for these friends…

The exit polling was way off the mark, and may have been a scam. The gist of the scam is as follows: (a) Mr. Modi is closely tied to a couple of crony buddies. Therefore, a landslide for Mr. Modi is good for his crony buddies. (b) Exit polls indicating a landslide for Mr. Modi meant that the stock market went berserk in the run-up to the results. Some people may have cashed out. I doubt there is enough institutional firepower in India to investigate this.

Exit polling done by smaller organizations (including ones with stellar academic reputation) was suggesting a very close race, consistent with the final results. But those exit polls were not reported on the TV screens. The Press in India was one of the first that was bent to Mr. Modi’s will. It was actually quite comical to witness the proprietor of those smaller exit polls also thinking that the 400-seat prediction was more accurate than their own polls.

And finally, this is the most important item

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