(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . I expect Trump to get jail time, and it's important to state it publicly. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-05 I fully and honestly expect Trump to get a significant jail sentence AND that it will begin on July 11th, 2024. This is different than predicting this will happen. I am not trying to be correct and get it on record so latter on I can brag I predicted it will happen. Rather, a jail sentence beginning immediately is appropriate and therefor I wish to help others in our public discourse to set that expectation. Our government is not just a system of rules and laws, but also a system of social contracts and societal expectations. Judges are given a range of options during sentencing because the people who set up our laws recognized that not every situation is the same. Trump could face 0-4 years PER count. I am not a lawyer, but I could find no legal reason why the judge couldn’t impose those terms to run consecutively. i.e. Trump is facing a theoretical 136 years in prison. (ClimateHawk in the comments is pointing out there may be a 20 year max even with consecutive terms. 20 years is still essentially a life sentence for Trump so I’m fine with that.) Some of you are now itching to skip reading the rest of this article and post “There is no way Trump is getting jail time.” At which point his lawyer should send you a thank you card. Let me restate the above sentence: Judges are given a range of options during sentencing because the people who set up our laws recognize that not every situation is the same. Judges are given discretion in sentencing because the law cannot cover every possible violation of our social contracts. You can’t be convicted for violating a social contract, but you can certainly have your sentence adjusted due to violating a social contract. And publicly stating our expectation of the sentence is part of creating and maintaining the social contract. Trump supporters have every reason to state that he won’t get jail time for this offense. It’s called playing the ref. Judges are not immune to social discourse and if everyone is stating that Trump won’t get jail time, then it becomes harder, though not impossible, to go against the grain. If instead a significant part of the public discourse is that jail time is appropriate and warranted, then it becomes easier to sentence him to jail. The Honorable Juan Merchan has no love for Trump at this point. Trump has violated bail conditions, shown no remorse or acknowledged guilt, has a history of public witness intimidation, violent speech, inciting others and so on. You all know the score here. In addition, Michael Cohen already got 3 years for participating in this crime. The judge has plenty of reasons to assign jail time. A slap on the wrist endangers both our democracy and our legal system by setting a precedent that cheating on a presidential election is worth it because you won’t get a significant penalty. I trust Judge Merchan to already know this. What we all need to do is make it easier for the judge to make the decision. Furthermore, Judge Merchan also knows Trump’s history of delay tactics in court. A sentence beginning immediately flips the script on Trump. Trump starting in prison means he is the one asking for a quick appeals process. An appellate court could stay the prison sentence until the appeal process is finished, but that is not required. And Judge Merchan shouldn’t let that possibility dissuade him from doing the right thing. An immediate sentence also comes at the most appropriate time for such a sentence. This crime was committed in furtherance of illicitly affecting a national election. Imposing such a sentence during a national election is not only appropriate, but adds to the effectiveness of the sentence. “If you’re caught cheating, next time is made harder.” Trump’s public use of violent language and veiled threats also play into this. Should he be incarcerated, it will be more difficult for him to make such threats and do further damage to the process. While the GOP and main stream media will complain about it should be up to an election, they have no case: Trump is not being taken off the ballot. People can still vote for him in November no matter what. Republicans nominated Trump with full knowledge that this case and other cases could put him in jail before the election. They choose him anyway. This is NOT a surprise and was a bad choice on their part. We don’t need to bail them out. We have no laws stating that a presidential contender is immune to jail time. In fact, this is why even the potential of jail time in the past usually sinks a candidate. It actually does the GOP a small favor if they wish to use it. If Trump is in prison during the GOP convention with a jail term going past inauguration day, then they could use that convention to nominate someone else. I have no clue if their internal structures would allow that, but that’s their problem, not mine. I’d rather have Trump sitting in jail as the GOP candidate. What the GOP and main stream media do want to do is shift public expectations to one where Judge Merchan finds it difficult to impose a prison sentence. There is no legal or ethical justification here, but they are trying to win Trump’s case for him in the court of public opinion such that the actual court goes along. I understand why so many people expect him to, or are doubtful that, he will serve no time. Too many times our legal system has disappointed us particularly when it comes to rich, white, conservative, men. Too many times they get a pass. We have plenty of stories on Daily Kos about our tiered justice system so I won’t go further here. But now is not the time to be voicing those doubts. I also know there is peer pressure on Daily Kos not to be called out as naive by other posters for thinking he will get jail time. So many times the wish for jail is immediately followed up with an expectation of no jail. This weakens us. I don’t mind the disagreement. If you think he deserves no jail time, please make your case. But if your expectation is he will get no jail time because the justice system will fail us, then please make the justice system’s failure as part of your statement. That at least sets jail as the expectation with no jail as being a failure of the system. But even then, I will ask you to think about what your doubts contribute to the public discourse. If it’s important to express your doubts, please do so. But if you can hold off, then that is the best course of action. Athletes in sports with judges learn to project confidence no matter what they are feeling inside. Again, it’s working the ref. If after a bad performance an athlete looks dejected, then it removes all doubt from the judges mind that it was a bad performance and they can give a bad score without guilt knowing the athlete knows they had a bad performance as well. But if the athlete remains visibly confident, then the Judge may look for small ways to not fully trash the score. No way the athlete will get a high score, but depending upon the sport and the stage of the competition, they may only need a good enough score. The judges shouldn’t really be doing this, but many do as it is human nature. We need to be tough. We need to set the expectation of justice. We are not blind to reality and possibilities as we do so. We can recognize that justice may not be served. Be we need to be clear on our expectation of justice. As such, I expect the Honorable Juan Merchan to sentence Trump to one month of jail for each count, served consecutively (3 years running concurrently is fine as well). And I expect him to begin that sentence immediately as part of the legal system’s mandate to protect our country and its people from predatory criminals such as Donald J Trump. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/5/2244886/-I-expect-Trump-to-get-jail-time-and-it-s-important-to-state-it-publicly?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/