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Marking World Environment Day in 2024 with Yet Another Unwanted Temperature Record [1]

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Date: 2024-06-05  

Physics.org today:

The World Meteorological Organization said Wednesday that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is expected to range between 1.1 and 1.9 degrees Celsius hotter than at the start of the industrial era. It also estimated that there's nearly a one-in-two chance—47%—that the average global temperatures over that entire five-year span could top 1.5 C, an increase from just under a one-in-three chance projected for the 2023-2027 span. … The EU's Copernicus climate change service, a global reference for tracking world temperatures, cited an average surface air temperature of 15.9 C (60.6 F) last month—or 1.52 C higher than the estimated May average before industrial times.

May’s record heat capped 12 straight months of record-breaking global temperatures, and 14 months of record-breaking ocean temperatures as depicted in the above chart. And the really scary part of the oceanic temperature chart is that over half of the total increase above the 1982-2011 average has occurred in just the past year!

Granted, this enormous temperature anomaly was due in part to last year’s exceptional El Nino peak, and we should see at least some amelioration later this year as we transition into a La Nina trough. But if that fails to happen for whatever reason, we could all be in for a whole new world of hurt from the rising heat. If this is what we can expect from just a 1.5 C increase in the global temperature over pre-industrial levels, I hate to think what a 3.0 C or higher increase may have in store for the planet.

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