(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Paradoxically, the level of cynicism about politics means that you have more power over the outcome [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-05 Paradoxically, the level of cynicism about politics in this election means that you, reading this right now, have far more power over the outcome. And Trump’s conviction makes that even more true. Here’s why. (Before I go on, if you care about who wins on November 5, you can use your power to make a difference by donating to WisDems, which will turn your dollars into statewide voter mobilization. Only together can we defeat MAGA. Chip in here.) There’s a weirdly inverse relationship between turnout and the impact of campaigning. The less people are paying attention, the lower the level of information voters already believe they have, the less intense the public’s focus… the more impact per unit of additional work. Take local elections. When nobody has heard of their City Council member, they don’t feel like they know the issues… and they don’t vote. Turnout in local elections is routinely below 20%. BUT… that means that a city council candidate can win her race just by knocking on doors after work. Each knock is more likely to move a voter. And each voter is more likely to tip the election. The impact per unit of work is higher. This makes intuitive sense. The fewer the votes, the bigger the impact of an additional vote. And the less tuned-in the voters, the greater the impact of a face-to-face conversation on their vote or turnout choice. This intuition is borne out by data. There’s a burgeoning field of data-driven politics in which social scientists work with campaigns to run randomized controlled trials to figure out the effects of different campaign tactics. Sasha Issenberg writes about this in his books The Victory Lab and The Lie Detectives. Don Green at Columbia; David Broockman at Berkeley, Joshua Kalla at Yale—and many others—have published widely. Christina Coloroso and her team at the Analyst Institute are constantly driving the field forward. And pretty much all the experiments find the same thing. The more salient an election is, the more people have already thought about it and made up their minds… the harder it is to change anyone’s mind or, more importantly, their voting behavior. But in low-salience elections, more voters are up for grabs. Which takes us to 2024. Presidential elections are the highest-salience elections, by far. But turnout in presidential years varies a lot from cycle to cycle. And this year, an unusually large number of people aren’t tuning in yet. What’s more, there’s a strong correlation between “paying attention” and “supporting Biden.” In fact, polls say that among Democrats, the people paying the least attention to the news are the ones whose support is in question. Don’t blame voters—remember that different people are different. People have different things going on in their lives. They have different fascinations. If you’re reading this, you and I probably have in common that we’re deeply engaged in reading about politics. Many folks aren’t! And that’s how you wind up with, for example, a meaningful fraction of the public currently thinking Biden was to blame for the fall of Roe v. Wade, instead of Donald “I Was Able To Kill Roe v. Wade” Trump. There’s a reason that the more people know, the more likely they are to support Biden over Trump (or RFK). It’s because Biden is fighting for things people actually want. Freedom. Decency. Prosperity for the middle class. This is what campaigning is for—informing voters. And it’s what Joe Biden and his team are working on every single day. That’s why he’s been to Wisconsin so many times. The more people learn about what Trump has planned for the country, the more they oppose him. The more people learn what Biden is fighting for, the more they support him. And sooo many people don’t yet know much about either. But for people who’ve been avoiding political news, it’s hard to break through. Many people don’t want to know what’s happening. It’s stressful. It creates conflict. But some things are so big that they can’t be ignored. Trump’s 34 felony convictions are remarkable at face value—a jury of Trump’s peers found that he committed dozens of crimes. But the nature of his crimes—a cover-up to undermine voters’ free and informed choice—speaks to the larger reason why he’s dangerous. We’re in a moment where people who’ve been tuned out are going to have to make sense of new information. Either Trump’s spin—that it was all rigged—or the reality, that he and his top aides are all convicted felons intent on seizing and holding power. The people paying the most attention to politics are the people whose minds are the most made up. For other voters, the election is more low-salience—and new information can move them. Meaning, your donations and volunteer hours can affect them more. When you volunteer with WisDems, we’ll ask you to install an app that shows you which of your friends and family members have missed recent elections, and equip you with things to say when you see them or call them. Sign up to help us! You are a great messenger to people who already know and trust you. You are a great messenger to people in your own community. And precisely the voters who will change the channel away from the news are the ones we need to reach with trusted messengers. When you donate to WisDems, your dollars help us expand our reach, so that every Wisconsinite will know that Democrats are looking out for them. It could tip the state—even more so because so many voters aren’t yet fully tuned in. Wisconsin could tip the whole national presidential election—and the margin here could be a few thousand votes. Which means a little can go a loooooong way. Chip in, and help spread the word. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/5/2244975/-Paradoxically-the-level-of-cynicism-about-politics-means-that-you-have-more-power-over-the-outcome?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/