(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Oregon-5: This Contest Was a Disaster in 2022. Has Janelle Bynum Learned From It? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-16 This race was one of the largest disasters in 2022 and, combined with other disasters in California and New York, led to us losing our House majority. But how did a district that voted for Biden by a nine-point spread flip to GOP control? It took a unique confluence of factors that hopefully won’t be repeated. Oregon Democrats, in order to try to maximize the number of seats won, drew a politically risky map for the 5th district. It combined many areas that were new to the incumbent with deep-red areas that would never vote for a Democrat. Said incumbent, Rep. Kurt Schrader, angered local constituents with some opposition to the Biden-Harris agenda. He neglected constituent services as well. A more liberal challenger, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, emerged and won the primary election against Schrader. This led to a bout of sour grapes from the defeated incumbent where he failed to get behind the woman who defeated him. The Oregon Democratic Party was sharply divided in the governor’s race in 2022, with moderates peeling off to vote for an independent state senator. That led to the GOP governor nominee possibly carrying this district. This district prefers the more moderate option when it comes to voting for members of Congress, and Jamie McLeod-Skinner was seen as too liberal for the district. That led to an upset where Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer flipped the district and helped lead to a GOP majority in the House. However, Janelle Bynum is much more moderate than McLeod-Skinner was. She has been tackling problems in Oregon through legislation she has helped write. As Oregon’s only Black elected official, it has been challenging for her at times in a state where Black residents only make up around 2% of the population. However, her faith and her business acumen ground her and help her seek out solutions to everyday problems. The question is whether or not Janelle Bynum can learn from the disaster in this district in 2022 and flip this seat back to Democratic control. Like reading election themed articles? I am starting a massive series of them each Sunday morning! Make sure to follow #SaveTheMajority and the group Save the Majority so you don’t miss important races down the ballot! Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is part of what I am calling the #Beatable16. These Republicans reside in districts that Biden won in 2020. Janelle Bynum is one of the 16 Democratic candidates in the Beatable16 fund that I am fundraising for. DONATE TO THE BEATABLE16 FUND IN ORDER TO DEFEAT THE #BEATABLE16! Janelle Bynum for Oregon-5 Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE | Volunteer What’s the Big Idea? OR-05 election results in 2022. THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+2 PVI This district has traditionally connected the southern suburbs of Portland with some communities on the Pacific Coast of Oregon. Prior to 2022, the last time the GOP held this district was in this configuration, and it took the 1994 Republican Revolution for it to happen. Rep. Jim Bunn was bounced from the district after one term and replaced by a moderate Democrat named Rep. Darlene Hooley. Eventually, former Rep. Kurt Schrader replaced her until he was bounced in the primary as indicated in the opening. 2020 redistricting changed the calculations for districts in Oregon as a 6th district was earned by the state. The 5th district was essentially split in half, with the southern suburbs of Portland now being combined with the rapidly growing community of Bend in the central part of the state. Connecting the two liberal pockets is a LOT of deep red turf, and this is possibly what sunk Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022. Biden won this district in 2020 by a 53.2% to 44.4% result, but many portions of the district (particularly by Bend) have a longer history of voting for the GOP. That made drawing these lines risky, and it backfired on us when the governor’s race split the Democratic field. The GOP governor candidate likely carried this district, and Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer potentially rode those coattails to a surprising 50.9% to 48.8% victory. The key to this district is the sizable moderate voting bloc. The candidate that is closer to the middle of the electorate has a better chance of winning. Oregon can be a misleading state, as there are large stretches of rural areas that vote red (including in this district) and several blue urban areas where most of the population live. It isn’t a uniform blue by any stretch of the imagination. Here’s where this race will be won in the 5th district. Portland Suburbs and Exurbs : These suburbs of the Portland metro area are one of the two rich vote sources for Democratic candidates in the district. It is important that Bynum meet the Biden margins in this section of the district and that these suburbs do not snap back to the GOP like they did in 2022. : These suburbs of the Portland metro area are one of the two rich vote sources for Democratic candidates in the district. It is important that Bynum meet the Biden margins in this section of the district and that these suburbs do not snap back to the GOP like they did in 2022. Bend Metro Area : This area is still relatively new to the district, and it is an area unfamiliar with Bynum. She will have to work this area hard in order to make sure there is no ticket splitting. Bynum will also have to make sure there is no down ticket drop-off. It’s a critical area for her to win. Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose. Rural Oregon : Rural Clackamas, Marion, and Linn Counties are irredeemably red in nature, with only a few blue precincts in Silverton and Albany breaking up the sea of red. Bynum won’t receive very many votes in these areas, and she’s better off shoring up Bend and the suburbs. Who is Janelle Bynum? Janelle Bynum would be the first Black representative in Oregon history, which is a huge deal. Janelle Bynum grew up in Washington, D.C. She went to Florida A&M to study electrical engineering, receiving a scholarship from Boeing to pursue this line of study. Eventually, she wound up working for General Motors and graduating from the University of Michigan with an MBA. After 9/11, Bynum moved to Oregon to be closer to family members. She and her husband run McDonald’s franchises. Bynum eventually filed to run for a district in the Portland area in 2016, and she defeated none other than Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 51%-49% in a highly anticipated race. Despite having the police called on her during canvassing, she won a rematch between the two by a wider margin in 2018. She had no issue with her 2020 or 2022 races even as redistricting gave her more unfamiliar turf. She is the right person to beat Chavez-DeRemer again! Most of the information for this section comes from the issues page of her campaign website. Abortion Rights Ally. Bynum will be a vote to codify Roe v. Wade at a federal level. She would also stand up for the rights of women to receive birth control and contraception, as well as IVF. Bynum argues that Black women are often ignored on these issues and that her experiences will help her push for ways to decrease Black maternal mortality as well. Housing Affordability. While in the Oregon legislature, Bynum made housing affordability one of her main issues to focus on. She worked on protecting tenants and making sure low-income Oregonians could pay utilities. In Congress, she vows to vote to cut red tape so that more homes can be constructed to increase the supply. Tackling Homelessness. This is an intractable problem in the Portland area (and across the nation). In the state legislature, Bynum worked to increase shelter capacity and increase mental health resources for those living on the streets. In Congress, she will work to earmark more resources for the issue not only in Oregon but across the USA. Police Reform. Bynum has been a leader on reforming the police in the Oregon legislature — even before she was stopped during canvassing. She has shepherded through a massive package of police reforms through the state legislature. She has been very patient with her white colleagues, instructing them not to be “white saviors” but just do the right thing. She is a likely champion of the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act while in Congress. Economic Opportunity. Bynum helped pass the Oregon CHIPS Act through the state legislature, which supercharged the nascent tech industry in the Willamette Valley. She is a likely supporter of Build Back Better and other measures to help stimulate the economy, both in Oregon and in other places across America. Climate Crisis. Bynum points out that the extreme heat of recent summers and the wildfires plaguing rural communities stem from the same issue — the climate crisis. Bynum has worked in the state legislature to make Oregon into a hub of green industry and would work with her Democratic colleagues on serious climate crisis solutions when elected. Health Care Helper. Bynum would protect the ACA, Medicare, and Medicaid from the savage attacks the GOP has planned for them. She would also vote to expand the savings on prescription drugs as started by Medicare negotiating with pharmaceutical companies. Education Advocate. Bynum is the daughter of two public school teachers, so she knows what an impact a good quality school has on a student. She would vote to increase teacher pay, as well as to lower class sizes. Improving school facilities is also high on her educational agenda, as many schools are old and crumbling. Who is Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer? Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is a “moderate”, meaning she sometimes doesn’t vote the MAGA way. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is from the Central Valley of California, and she graduated from CSU-Fresno with an MBA. She made her way to the suburbs of Portland, Oregon shortly after college. She was elected to the Happy Valley Council in 2004, and she was elected the mayor of that suburb of Portland in 2010. She tried to get elected to the state house in 2016 and 2018, but none other than Janelle Bynum defeated her. She took advantage of divisions in the Democratic Party to get elected to Congress in 2022. Chavez-DeRemer has a hidden issues page on her campaign website, and her Congressional page touts bipartisan measures she claims to support. The DCCC opposition file and various other sources were valuable to fill in this section. How Can You Help? This race is near the top of the list when it comes to races we need to win in order to take back the House of Representatives. However, the race is in an uncompetitive state for the Presidency, and there isn’t a Senate race either. That means this is one of the most important races in the Portland, OR area. Donations, volunteers, and social media attention should flock to the 5th district. Being added to Red to Blue early will only help bring attention to this contest. x Huge news: @DCCC just placed our campaign on the Red to Blue list! This is one of the best opportunities in the country to flip a Republican-held seat and take back the House. We’re ready to FLIP #OR05. Are you in? https://t.co/4QtGbr0Taj pic.twitter.com/iOkqnM2k9k — Janelle Bynum (@bynum4thewin) January 29, 2024 Janelle Bynum just wrapped up her primary win about a month ago, meaning she will need some support in the fundraising race to catch up to the incumbent. Bynum raised $503k for the Q1 reporting period, while Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer raised a more robust $605k during the same period. Bynum has $561k to spend, but much of that likely went to her primary win last month. Chavez-DeRemer has been stockpiling cash to the tune of $1.88M cash on hand. Bynum is unlikely to catch up to the incumbent, but she can raise enough to beat her with your help! Bynum doesn’t have a specific link to volunteer for her campaign. Instead, she has a “get involved” link where you can enter in your contact information. This means that you may have to contact the campaign itself to see how best to devote your efforts to helping. There are plenty of ways to help, and this race will garner outsized attention in the Portland area. Janelle Bynum is working on growing her social media presence, and she could definitely use some help on that front. She has yet to rise to national prominence, which makes her followers all the more important in spreading her message. Bynum has 4.4k followers on Twitter and 4.8k followers on Facebook. The content seems to be completely different on both social media platforms. She’s currently more active on Twitter, so I will share that she accepted the nomination for Oregon’s 5th district last month. x I’m honored to be your Democratic nominee in #OR05. As a mother of four, I’m running to make the future brighter for them and every child across Oregon. And with your support, I know we'll bring this fight to Congress. Onward to November! pic.twitter.com/iffcmcq9NL — Janelle Bynum (@bynum4thewin) May 22, 2024 Help spread the word today by following Janelle Bynum and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media. While I am not going so far as to call Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer an accidental member of Congress, it is clear that many mistakes led to her win in 2022. She has been trying to show some “moderate” stances in order to stay in Congress, but it remains to be seen whether they are enough to keep her there. According to Daily Kos Elections, Chavez-DeRemer is the 8th most vulnerable Republican in Congress. In order to flip the chamber, the Democratic Party almost certainly has to win this race! This contest for Oregon’s 5th district will be a completely different race than the previous one. Janelle Bynum is a seasoned politician who has beaten Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer twice before, and she has a very good chance of making it three for three. She ran as a more moderate option than Jamie McLeod-Skinner, which is more in line with the type of candidate the district is looking for. It is clear that Janelle Bynum has studied the disaster in this district in 2022, and she has taken the lessons learned from that debacle and applied them well. Janelle Bynum for Oregon-5 Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE | Volunteer [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/16/2241464/-Oregon-5-This-Contest-Was-a-Disaster-in-2022-Has-Janelle-Bynum-Learned-From-It?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/