(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The election news improves for Democrats [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-20 Recent polls have given Democrats some good news — with a caveat. At the best of times, political polls have proved wobbly. Those more than four months before an election are particularly dodgy. Regardless, they do show positive trends for liberals. A Fox News poll has Biden up by two points, 50% to 48%. This follows a string of polls that had Biden lagging a few percent behind. As Bret Baier announced on Wednesday’s Special Report. “President Biden gets his best result this election cycle in the head-to-head against former president Donald Trump,” In 538’s aggregate of polls , Biden now leads by a hair. One cause of Biden’s improving results is an uptick in support of the incumbent by independents. In a Marist poll , which has Biden and Trump tied 49%, Joe has seen his standing among independents improve from 42% to 50%. Trump has an advantage in voter enthusiasm. In part because liberals are like cats - finicky. However, come the election, when stuff gets real, many will hold their nose and vote for Joe. Especially those who can remember 2016 and what happened when some liberal voters didn’t think Hillary met their purity standards. Democrats in November will also vote on abortion measures. Polls of voter concerns do not place abortion high on the list. But it has proved galvanizing for liberal and independent voters — and perhaps even some conservatives, when they’ve had the opportunity to vote on the issue. The two most important states where abortion may be on the ballot are Arizona and New Mexico. Other states are either safely Democratic - or so Republican, it is unlikely it will make a difference. Especially as a state’s Electoral College vote in a state is almost always awarded winner-take-all. in addition, the RFK Jr. run, which the political chattering class had assumed would strip support from Biden has proved to be the vanity project of a terminally inept campaigner - who might also be insane. And polls show that what support Kennedy has received has come as much from conservatives as it has from dissatisfied liberals. Trump, who has a feral sense of these things, warned potential MAGA deserters that RFK Jr. Is a snake in the grass Back in April, Trump said in a three-part post on his Truth Social website: RFK Jr. is a Democrat 'Plant,' a Radical Left Liberal. Adding: "A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him." I would be surprised to find a Republican who knew the true story about anything. However, liberals have discovered that RFK Jr. is a Kennedy in name only. In addition, RFK’s relevance has taken a beating as he has failed to qualify for the first presidential debate. Biden is no lock to win in November, especially with the structural advantage the Electoral College gives Trump. Biden, on the other hand, is able to spend most of his donations on the important work of getting out the vote, et cetera. While Trump is using his campaign cash to stay out of jail. The upcoming debate gives Joe an opportunity to beat expectations as he did in his State of the Union address. On the other hand, Trump, having his microphone muted when it is not his turn to speak, may actually work to his advantage. It will reduce his asshole factor. So it is hard to say who will ‘win.’ And how much it will help or hurt each candidate. Trump’s recent felony conviction has turned a small number of voters against him. But there will be no more trials before the election. So, I think his criminality is baked into the electoral equation. As is the fact that Biden is old. I wish I could say Biden will win the election in a walk over, but it is hard to predict what issues like the Israeli/Palestinian war will have on the electorate. The good news is that Biden’s arrow is pointing up. While Trump’s is at best flat and could be pointing down. The message is simple. Vote like American democracy depends on it. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/20/2247469/-The-election-news-improves-for-Democrats?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/