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Morning Digest: Virginia's 2025 race for attorney general just got underway [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2024-06-21  

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● VA-AG, VA-Gov: Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor on Wednesday became the first major candidate from either party to announce a 2025 bid for attorney general of Virginia, a post that Republican Jason Miyares flipped three years ago. Taylor, though, is likely to face a tough primary campaign next year before she can focus on the eventual Republican nominee—who may or may not be Miyares.

While former Del. Jay Jones' team tells the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he'll wait until the end of the presidential election to announce if he'll join the race, prominent Old Dominion Democrats have already backed his long-anticipated campaign. Former Govs. Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam and Fairfax County Commonwealth's Attorney Steve Descano have all publicly called for Jones, who lost the 2021 primary to incumbent Mark Herring 57-43, to run again.

Jones would be Virginia's first Black attorney general, while Taylor would be the second woman elected to this post. (The first was Mary Sue Terry, a Democrat whose 1985 victory made her the first woman elected statewide; Terry later lost the 1993 race for governor to Republican George Allen.)

Miyares himself became the first Latino elected statewide when he narrowly unseated Herring in 2021, and politicos have long expected that he'll run for governor next year. Miyares, however, has yet to confirm he'll enter the race to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term.

The attorney general would likely need to go through a difficult primary against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who also hasn't announced a gubernatorial bid that almost everyone nonetheless anticipates is coming. It's always possible, however, that party leaders will encourage either Miyares or Earle-Sears to seek reelection so they can avoid intra-party acrimony—especially now that Rep. Abigail Spanberger appears to be on a glide path to claim the Democratic nod.

For now, though, Taylor has the contest for attorney general to herself, and the Democrat used her Wednesday kickoff to tout herself as an experienced "progressive prosecutor" who has been tested at the ballot box.

Taylor was a first-time candidate in 2011 when she campaigned to succeed retiring GOP Commonwealth's Attorney Wade Kizer in Henrico County, a longtime conservative bastion in the Richmond suburbs that was still in the midst of a dramatic political transformation. The county, starting with Dwight Eisenhower's 1952 win, backed the Republican nominee in 14 consecutive presidential elections. Strong showings there each helped Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush, and Bob Dole carry Virginia in 1976, 1992, and 1996 respectively.

Henrico County, however, became considerably more competitive during the first decade of the 21st century thanks both to national Democrats' increasing strength in the suburbs and an increasingly diverse electorate in an area that was a destination point for conservative voters in the era of white flight. Barack Obama in 2008 dramatically broke the GOP's long winning streak by carrying the county 56-43, but Republicans still controlled the county's most powerful local offices.

The GOP's campaign to hold Kizer's post, however, took a chaotic turn in the summer of 2011 after the public learned of an extra-marital affair involving nominee Matthew Geary. Geary refused to drop out, and powerful local Republicans like House Majority Leader Eric Cantor responded by recruiting GOP Del. Bill Janis to run as an independent. Taylor soon launched her own campaign 10 weeks before Election Day—coincidently on the same day that an earthquake rattled the area.

Taylor ultimately defeated Janis 46-38 as Geary took 16%, a victory that ended the GOP's 24-year hold on the commonwealth's attorney post. That result coincided with Tyrone Nelson's upset win for a key seat on the five-person Board of Supervisors that, while not enough to end the Republicans' longtime majority, belied claims that Taylor's election was merely "a fluke."

Those skeptics got some unwelcome news the next year when Obama carried Henrico County again, and this onetime GOP stronghold quickly transformed into a reliably Democratic community in statewide races. Biden won it 64-35, and McAuliffe still carried it 59-40 even as he was narrowly losing the 2021 gubernatorial contest to Youngkin. The party finally took control of the Board of Supervisors following last year's elections, and African American officials also made up a majority of its members for the first time ever.

Taylor, who easily won her fourth term in 2023, has argued that all of this, as well as her party's strength across the state, owes its origins to what happened locally in 2011. "I firmly believe that night, with Tyrone Nelson and I winning, was the beginning of the Blue Wave," she told the Times-Dispatch as she announced her bid for statewide office.

Senate

● MI-Sen: Former Rep. Mike Rogers on Wednesday earned an endorsement from Rep. John Moolenaar, who represents the rural west-central part of Michigan, for the Aug. 6 Republican primary. Rogers, who has the support of Donald Trump and the NRSC, already had the backing of three other members of the state's House delegation: Reps. Jack Bergman, Lisa McClain, and Tim Walberg.

● MN-Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll for local media stations finds Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar with similarly wide advantages against both former NBA player Royce White, a far-right conspiracy theorist who has attracted national attention, and banker Joe Fraser, who is arguing he'd be a more electable alternative.

Klobuchar leads White and Fraser 49-35 and 49-36, respectively, as respondents favor Joe Biden 47-41 over Donald Trump. Klobuchar's edge against Fraser is very similar to her 48-34 advantage in SurveyUSA's previous poll from May, while this is the first time it's tested her against White.

The state Republican Party stunned political observers at its convention last month by endorsing White, who has a long record of offensive and profane statements about women, LGBTQ people, Jews, and other groups. However, White still has to get past Fraser in the Aug. 13 primary before he can secure the GOP nomination.

● NM-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling has conducted a survey for NM Political Report that shows Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich with a 47-40 lead against Republican Nella Domenici, a former finance executive whose father was the late longtime Sen. Pete Domenici. PPP also finds Biden defeating Trump 48-41 in a state that the president won 54-43 in 2020.

The only other poll we've seen here was a Red Oak Strategic internal for the NRSC and Domenici from last month that showed Heinrich ahead by a smaller 41-38. However, national party groups on both sides aren't acting like they expect the race to be competitive and haven't booked major TV ad reservations for this fall.

● Senate: Politico reports that the NRSC will soon book TV and digital ad time in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio as part of a "multimillion dollar" reservation, though the committee did not disclose how much it will commit to each contest. This would represent the first major conservative independent expenditure to help Arizona's Kari Lake, who last month was the subject of an unwelcome Politico piece titled, "Kari Lake keeps giving Republicans new reasons to worry."

Governors

● DE-Gov: A WHYY News investigation by Cris Barrish revealed that Democratic Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long's campaign has accepted $25,000 from donors who contributed more than the legal limit, including from PACs that failed to register with state election officials as required. The news comes months after Hall-Long drew unfavorable coverage when she paused her fundraising for most of October as her campaign conducted an internal audit.

Delaware limits individual and PAC donations to just $1,200, but Barrish discovered excessive donations from more than 30 contributors in reports spanning 2021 through 2023. Hall-Long's campaign responded by stating it would refund the excess amounts, but Barrish notes that some of these donations occurred after the candidate said she would more strictly adhere to campaign finance regulations in response to her campaign's previous issues.

Those issues became public less than a month after Hall-Long joined the primary in September with term-limited Gov. John Carney's support. Top campaign staffers soon quit over the news that she had failed to disclose more than $200,000 in payments to her husband Dana Long, who was her campaign treasurer, over several previous years. In response, Hall-Long she said she was suspending her fundraising and hiring an outside firm to conduct an audit.

Her campaign announced about a month later that it was resuming its activities. It also blamed poor record-keeping and claimed in amended reports that the $200,000 in payments had actually gone to her to reimburse part of the roughly $300,000 she had loaned her past campaigns for lieutenant governor, stating that she had "no plans to repay herself" the remaining $100,000. However, she still has not released the full results of that audit.

Hall-Long faces former state environmental official Collin O'Mara and New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer in the Sept. 10 primary.

● NH-Gov: Former state Senate President Chuck Morse avoided filing updated campaign finance reports this week thanks to what the Republican says is an exemption in state law, a move that means he won't have to disclose any fundraising from 2024 until Aug. 21—a mere three weeks before the Sept. 10 primary.

The New Hampshire Journal's Michael Graham notes that Morse has long faced unwelcome questions about his ability to compete financially against former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who is the frontrunner to claim the GOP nomination for governor, and that this delay isn't going to dispel that chatter. One unnamed Granite State Republican, though, insisted Morse was better off "attacking Ayotte on not being conservative" rather than revealing his numbers.

Morse said he wasn't subject to Wednesday's reporting deadline because of a provision in what Graham characterized as "New Hampshire’s less-than-definitive election laws." The secretary of state requires "[a]ny political committee" that raised or spent at least $1,000 to file fundraising reports, though it says this week's document "is not required to be filed by candidates."

Graham says that in past years this has only been interpreted to apply to "individual candidates," not gubernatorial committees like "Friends of Chuck Morse." Republican Secretary of State David Scanlan said that he couldn't recall a notable contender making this distinction before and that he hadn't yet examined the matter enough to decide if it pertains to Morse.

Ayotte and the two notable Democrats, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, all did disclose their numbers from the period from Dec. 5 to June 17. Ayotte took in $1.5 million and finished with $3.3 million in the bank in her quest to succeed her fellow Republican, retiring Gov. Chris Sununu. Craig, meanwhile, outraised Warmington $1.1 million to $750,000 and enjoys a $1.3 million to $500,000 cash on hand advantage.

House

● NY-22: Just one week before Tuesday's Democratic primary, former staffers for state Sen. John Mannion published an open letter accusing the candidate of abusing his legislative staff and fostering a hostile work environment. The Auburn Citizen reported that the accusers told their stories to local media but remained anonymous to avoid retaliation.

The letter charged Mannion with using "out of control yelling" and profanity to intimidate aides, claiming that one episode made an aide physically ill and another involved shouting at a young woman alone in a room for "nearly an hour." These tirades reportedly included phrases such as "I am the Senator" and "I am the king."

The letter further alleges that Mannion retaliated against a staffer who reported another employee for sexually harassing a constituent, telling other aides that he didn't trust that staffer even though their report itself was "handled appropriately through official channels." They also contend that the senator told a top staffer that he had to avoid hiring attractive women so his wife wouldn't become jealous.

They additionally accused the senator of defending inappropriate behavior by his spouse, Jen Mannion, who was allegedly "involved in work situations" that "crossed the line into harassment." The ex-staffers charged that she had made derogatory comments directed at LGBTQ+ people, including a staffer and a reporter, along with sending aides threatening text messages late at night.

Mannion has denied the allegations, calling them "a false political attack and it is the type of dirty politics that I reject." He further claimed that no complaints against him had been filed against him with human resources or other state officials, and he said he would cooperate after the state Senate opened an investigation.

Mannion faces DeWitt Town Board member Sarah Klee Hood in Tuesday's primary. The winner will take on Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in a revamped 55-43 Biden district that is one of the top offensive opportunities nationwide for Democrats.

Attorneys General

● MO-AG: The Club for Growth has released an early June poll from WPA Intelligence that shows appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey decisively leading its endorsed candidate, Trump lawyer Will Scharf, 37-17 ahead of the Aug. 6 Republican primary. The memo says that an unreleased poll from March showed Bailey similarly situated with a 29-10 advantage.

So why would the Club showcase such disheartening numbers for its side? The Missouri Scout, which first reported the results, notes that the poll goes on to find Scharf pulling ahead 40-21 after respondents hear several attacks on Bailey, information the Club is hoping its well-funded allies will use to weaken the incumbent. The memo even includes a graph comparing the effectiveness of each anti-Bailey talking point.

The Scout, though, notes that Scharf once again craters once respondents are asked how they'd react if they learned he "worked in Joe Biden’s corrupt Department of Justice." Still, thanks to massive donations from powerful conservative Leonard Leo and his network, Scharf's backers have considerably more money to broadcast their preferred narrative than Bailey's side.

Ballot Measures

● NY Ballot: A state appeals court has put a constitutional amendment related to abortion rights back on the November ballot, reversing a lower court ruling against the Democratic-backed amendment because Republican challengers had failed to file their lawsuit by the legal deadline. The state GOP announced it will appeal to the Court of Appeals, which is New York's highest court.

Supporters claim this Equal Rights Amendment would enshrine abortion rights. However, as state constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain has noted, its abortion-related language is much less specific compared to measures from other states this cycle. Instead, it more broadly bans discrimination based on numerous related categories such as "sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy."

Meanwhile, a new Siena College poll finds the amendment passing 59-27 even though the poll's respondents support Joe Biden by just 47-39, a large drop from his 61-38 victory in 2020. The college's previous poll in May found the amendment passing by a very similar 59-26.

Legislatures

● OK State Senate: State Senate Majority Leader Greg McCortney on Tuesday became the latest powerful legislative leader to lose renomination in a Republican primary, a defeat that came four months after his colleagues picked him to become the chamber's leader in 2025. McCortney's planned ascension to Senate pro tem, though, ended with his 52-48 defeat against Jonathan Wingard, a snake breeder who says he and his wife "currently specialize in Red Tail Boas and Ball Pythons."

Wingard had the support of Gov. Kevin Stitt, who has been locked in a bitter feud with McCortney and his top ally, outgoing Senate Pro Tem Greg Treat. The Oklahoman's M. Scott Carter wrote last month that Stitt unsuccessfully urged McCortney's colleagues to reject his bid to replace the termed-out Treat, and tensions only escalated after the Senate rejected Stitt's tax cut plan.

It remains to be seen who will take McCortney's place as the next Senate leader following his surprise loss, though Oklahoma Republicans are hardly the only group that has had to wrestle with this dilemma. The top Senate leaders in Idaho and West Virginia, Chuck Winder and Craig Blair, both lost renomination in May. Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, however, fended off a Trump-backed opponent last month, though he still faces a leadership fight to remain his chamber's most powerful member.

Mayors & County Leaders

● Oakland, CA Mayor: Election officials in Alameda County, California announced Tuesday that the campaign to recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao had turned in enough signatures to force a vote, a development that came two days before the FBI raided the mayor's home.

Law enforcement officials, who also conducted raids on three other local sites, did not provide any details into what they were investigating, though ABC 7's Lena Howland reports it "involves the IRS and the US Postal Service." The East Bay Times also says that one of the other locations is the home of businessman Andy Duong, whom the Public Ethics Commission has been investigating since 2020. Duong has been accused of using "straw donors" to help multiple candidates for the City Council, including Thao.

Thao was elected mayor in 2022 by defeating Loren Taylor, a fellow council member who ran to her right, 50.3-49.7 in an instant-runoff contest. Thao, though, has faced a difficult term as the city continues to recover from the COVID pandemic and the Oakland A's looming relocation to Las Vegas. The campaign to recall the mayor has faulted her handling of crime, while Thao has defended her record.

The City Council is set to meet on July 2 to schedule the recall, and the East Bay Times says they're likely to place it on the Nov. 5 general election ballot; Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, whose jurisdiction includes Oakland, is also fighting to avoid being recalled that same day.

Recall elections expert Joshua Spivak writes that, should a majority vote to remove Thao, a special election would take place in the coming months. The president of the City Council would become mayor for the ensuing time, though that adds another complication. The current leader, Nikki Fortunato Bas, is the frontrunner for a seat on the county Board of Supervisors, so Thao's defeat could require a second person to serve as interim mayor in the lead-up to a special election.

Spivak also notes that Oakland will be the largest municipality in the country to hold a mayoral recall election since 2011, when incumbents in both Omaha, Nebraska, and Miami-Dade County, Florida faced the voters. Nebraska conservatives hoped that a backlash over taxes would allow them to cut Democratic Mayor Jim Suttle's term short: Suttle held on 51-49, but he badly lost reelection two years later against Republican Jean Stothert.

Republican Carlos Álvarez, though, was on the losing side of an 88-12 drubbing, a result that made Miami-Dade County the second-most populous community in America to recall its leader. (The largest remains the state of California, which replaced Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.)

Taxes also played a key role in Álvarez's recall, though unlike Suttle, he was unable to convincingly argue his actions were vital to protecting the local economy. As one source told the Swing State Project, the predecessor site to Daily Kos Elections, Álvarez "raised taxes, then raised his staff’s salary, then got himself a luxury car at government expense when they already provide him two SUVs."

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