(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine war Possible Outcomes [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-21 Also available on Substack: open.substack.com/… Below are three possible outcomes of the Ukraine war, with likely subsequent events (IMO). Considering how badly things could turn out, it seems that political leaders are trying hard to avoid talking about this. 1. Ukraine allies make a deal with Putin in return for peace Russia keeps the territory it controls (or some compromise). Ukraine must accept, because Western support is now gone. Ukraine will be in chaos, waiting for Russia to finish the job. Most Ukrainians under 50 will flee into Western Europe. Russian neighbors will no longer trust NATO to protect them. Georgia and Moldova will come under Russian control. Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia will more closely align with Russia (their Putinist leaders can remain comfortably in power). The Baltic states will accept Russian domination or takeover. The rest of Europe will live in fear of Russian aggression and will adopt appeasement policies. China will feel free to take Taiwan and other disputed islands. 2. Allied support remains adequate to prevent Russian victory Military experts believe current stalemate can hold indefinitely. Ukraine’s arsenal will become stronger, e.g. F16s. Russia is depleting its supply of old weapons in storage. Russia will continue to lose 20K soldiers per month. Pressure from relatives of soldiers (current and dead) will increase. Greater forced recruitment will be needed to replace losses. Endless war will become a major political problem for Putin. Population is aging and declining, birth rate is very low. Brain drain: 900K young and educated have fled since 2022. Russian war economy will continue to reduce living standards. Deficits and inflation (now 20%) will get worse. Russian oil and gas revenue will continue a downward trend (China is reducing oil and gas and expanding solar power). Russian assets in Europe ($250 billion) are effectively confiscated (will likely be used for reparations and rebuilding Ukraine cities). Oligarchs have lost their "safe" assets in Europe. Oligarchs already hate Putin and only pretend loyalty. All these factors should lead to a collapse of Russian support for the war, and a likely collapse of Putin. 3. Trump wins and becomes president in Jan. 2025 US weapons deliveries for Ukraine will stop. Europe cannot make up the difference fast enough Years are needed to reach needed production level. Europe does not make advanced air defense systems. European leaders may not agree on any course of action. Faith in NATO will collapse (no faith in USA). The will to save Ukraine will collapse. The events listed in scenario #1 will happen. Nuclear Weapon Threats Russian nuclear threats and "red lines" make Western leaders fearful and reluctant to give more effective help to Ukraine. They actually fear causing Putin to lose his pet war. They prefer half-measures that result in a stalemate. This fear is killing Ukrainian soldiers, wearing away political will, and can only lead to a Russian victory. There is almost no chance that Putin would actually use nuclear weapons, but his threats will help him win the conventional war. If a desperate Putin actually did use nuclear weapons, NATO's stated policy is to enter the war. If NATO did nothing, the consequences would be severe and unacceptable: NATO would become a joke and lose all trust. The Baltic states would rapidly surrender to Russian threats. The rest of Europe would live in fear and adopt appeasement policies. Therefore, I believe, NATO would do what it says it would do, and Putin understands this. His threats are empty. If Trump becomes US president, Putin will win anyway with conventional warfare, so nuclear threats mean nothing in this case. European Leadership European leaders are doing little to make the public aware of the possible horrible outcomes if Russia wins. It is easier to keep quiet about the risks, avoid making hard choices, and reassure voters that everything is under control. The German Chancellor is loudly promising "peace" without explaining how his policies (wait and hope) will achieve this. Europeans do not sufficiently understand that Ukraine is fighting and dying for Europe as well as Ukraine. Europe should be grateful that Ukraine is the only country with soldiers getting killed and cities being destroyed. Europe has a moral obligation, as well as a practical (selfish) obligation, to help Ukraine win this war. If Russia presented no threat to the rest of Europe, would that justify letting Ukraine be slaughtered? The main justification for helping Ukraine that one commonly hears: if Russia wins, then “we are next”. European leaders seem to be waiting for some solution that will somehow come around, without asking their people to make sacrifices or accept risks. They also seem to be waiting for the USA to fix the problem. They should commit as much as needed, as soon as possible, and explain to the people why this is necessary. Putin sympathizers should be scorned as fools or traitors (some openly defend Putin). European leaders should be pushing Biden to supply more and better weapons faster, which is indeed possible. The $250 billion Russian assets in Europe should be confiscated and used for Ukraine weapons and infrastructure repair. Financial assets of criminal nations do not need to be protected. The recent G7 meeting is encouraging: Ukraine is getting more money and weapons, and European members of NATO are taking more responsibility for acquiring more weapons (fearing a Trump presidency). American Leadership Biden's self-imposed limits of support for Ukraine are a result of his stated fear of a direct confrontation with Russia. Critics have long accused him of only offering the means to avoid losing the war, but not the means to win it, which is within his power. There is some sign that Biden is becoming more aggressive, e.g. allowing US weapons to be used against military targets in parts of Russia near Ukraine. He needs to get serious. Perhaps he is trying not to worry American voters before the coming election, and will do more if he wins. What will happen? If Trump wins, scenario #3 happens automatically. If Biden wins, then scenario #2 seems likely for at least another two years (IMO), and that may be long enough to collapse the Russian will to continue the war. Scenario #1 seems more likely after another two years of half-measures and stalemate, even if the implications are catastrophic. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/21/2247770/-Ukraine-war-Possible-Outcomes?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/