(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 851: UKR still limited in striking legitimate military targets in RU territory [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-22 Satellite imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck at least one Russian air defense training center in Krasnodar Krai during recent strikes on June 20 to 21. Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against energy and civilian targets in Ukraine on the night of June 21 to 22. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on June 22 that Russian forces launched 10 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast, two Iskander-K cruise missiles from occupied Crimea, four Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, and 13 Shahed-136/131 drones from Krasnodar Krai and occupied Crimea. [63] Ukrainian forces downed seven Kh-101/555 missiles, four Kalibr missiles, one Iskander-K missile, and all 13 Shahed drones. Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Russian Kalibr missiles have become less effective since Ukrainian forces have learned how to down them. [64] Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo reported that this was the eighth strike of this scale in the past three months and that Russian forces damaged power transmission systems in Zaporizhia and Lviv oblasts. [65] Lviv Oblast Military Administration Head Maksym Kozytskyi stated that Russian missile strikes caused a fire at an energy facility in Lviv Oblast, and Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov confirmed that Russian forces struck energy infrastructure in the oblast. [66] Ukraine's State Service for Emergency Situations reported that Russian rockets partially destroyed an educational institution in Prykarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Military Administration Head Svitlana Onyshchuk stated that Russian missiles damaged the Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, residential buildings, and other civilian infrastructure in the city. [67] This is reportedly the first Russian missile strike against Ivano-Frankivsk City since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. [68] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhii Lysak stated on June 21 that Russian forces struck a food warehouse in Kryvyi Rih with a missile, reportedly an Iskander-M ballistic missile, and injured two civilians. [69] Russian forces also conducted devastating glide bomb strikes against Kharkiv City on June 22. Kharkiv Oblast Police Investigative Department Head Serhii Bolvinov stated that Russian forces struck Kharkiv City with four D-30 glide bombs with universal joint glide munition (UMPB) modifications and that three of the glide bombs struck a production enterprise. [70] Other Kharkiv Oblast officials reported that at least one of the guided glide bombs struck a residential building, wounding at least 42 people and killing three people. [71] Geolocated satellite imagery collected on June 22 shows a destroyed building and scorched fields at an air defense training center west of Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai, and footage shows fires and secondary explosions following the strike. [22] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on June 21 that Ukrainian strikes damaged barracks and injured nine personnel at the 726th Air Defense Training Center in Vorontsovka, Krasnodar Krai (south of Rostov-on-Don). [23] Russian air defenses will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s if the US does not allow Ukrainian forces to use ATACMS to destroy Russian air defense systems in Russian territory. Ukrainian F-16 pilots will have to operate in a dangerous air space if US policy continues to provide a sanctuary in Russia that protects Russian forces from ATACMS. Russian air defenses will be able to cover up to 48 percent of Ukraine’s air space if Russia deploys S-400 air defense launchers within Russia outside of the range of HIMARS armed with GMLRS rockets. Such Russian air defense deployments would complicate Ukraine's ability to use manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas or against areas from which Russian aircraft, drone, and missile threats emanate. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces may be able to combine fixed-wing airpower in support of ground operations if the Ukrainian military receives a sufficient number of fighter jets if Western partners train enough skilled pilots, and if Ukraine succeeds in degrading Russian air defense capabilities. [12] Key Takeaways: Russian forces appear to be intensifying the tempo of their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while decreasing the rate of attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast — consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast are primarily intended to fix and distract Ukrainian forces in order to allow Russian forces to intensify elsewhere in theater. US policy continues to prohibit Ukrainian forces from striking legitimate military targets in Russian territory in range of Ukrainian HIMARS. Russian forces are exploiting the sanctuary that US policy still protects to support Russian combat operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast and elsewhere in Ukraine. Russian air defenses will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s if the US does not allow Ukrainian forces to use ATACMS to destroy Russian air defense systems in Russian territory. The partial removal of the Russian sanctuary has already had a net positive effect, underscoring the powerful latent potential a larger policy change could achieve. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on June 21 that the Netherlands and another unspecified country will supply Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on a series of leadership changes within the Russian Federal Security Service's (FSB) Fifth Service, which reportedly specializes in collecting intelligence within Russia and the former Soviet Union. Western countries have reportedly provided Ukraine with roughly 800 million euros ($855.4 million) worth of Serbian-produced ammunition despite Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's ongoing efforts to balance favor between Russia and the West. Satellite imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck at least one Russian air defense training center in Krasnodar Krai during recent strikes on June 20 to 21. Select Russian milbloggers claimed that unnamed actors, implied to be Ukrainians, conducted a strike using ATACMS against Rostov Oblast, although ISW cannot independently confirm these reports. Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. Russian law enforcement and security agencies continue working with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit those accused of criminal offenses into the Russian military, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts. x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 22, 2024 ■ Engagements stay on a high level, casualties roughly 1.1k ■ Relatively few equipment losses ■ Unfavorable strike ratio (more 🇷🇺 strikes, fewer 🇺🇦 ones) ■ KIU: +27 🇷🇺 officers; 4.6 per day for last four batches Note: 28 artillery losses… pic.twitter.com/RJ98m1ZPRn — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) June 22, 2024 Russian forces appear to be intensifying the tempo of their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while decreasing the rate of attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast — consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast are primarily intended to fix and distract Ukrainian forces in order to allow Russian forces to intensify elsewhere in theater. Russian forces increased the intensity of assaults in the Toretsk-Horlivka direction (southwest of Chasiv Yar and northeast of Avdiivka) on the night of June 18 and maintained a relatively high rate of attacks in this area between June 19 to June 22, reportedly making several tactical gains in the area. [1] Russian forces have been generally inactive on this sector of the front throughout the course of 2024, so their activation and intensification are noteworthy. By contrast, the tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast has drastically decreased in recent days, particularly in comparison with the start of Russian offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City in mid-May 2024. [2] ISW has long assessed that the Russian command intended its offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast to fix Ukrainian manpower and scarce materiel along the northern border to grant Russian forces opportunities to re-intensify offensive operations in other more critical areas of the theater, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. [3] Ukrainian sources have confirmed that some Ukrainian forces have redeployed units to the Kharkiv direction from Donetsk Oblast, so Russian forces may be exploiting this perceived weakness of Ukrainian lines to intensify attacks, particularly in the Toretsk-Horlivka direction. [4] Russian forces have additionally maintained a high rate of attacks in the Chasiv Yar direction and around Avdiivka since decreasing the tempo in Kharkiv Oblast, and may soon intensify attacks in this area if the Russian command identifies the coming weeks as an advantageous time to push in these areas before Ukrainian forces re-allocate reserves back to Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian sources have warned that Russia will conduct a summer offensive that will likely focus on Ukraine's east after pursuing offensive operations in the north intended to stretch Ukraine's scarce resources, and recent intensifications in Donetsk Oblast may indicate preparations for such a summer offensive, assuming it has not already begun. [5] x #ATESH has been successfully infiltrated into the 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment at Baltimore Airfield in Voronezh. Su-34 fighter-bombers are based here and used in operations against Ukraine. Expect further developments soon.#UkraineConflict pic.twitter.com/YP9qzxYWxL — ATESH_eng (@atesh_eng) June 22, 2024 The Ukrainian partisan group ATESH has claimed one of its agents successfully infiltrated a Russian air base and hinted at carrying out sabotage operations. In a post on Telegram on June 22, the group said it had scouted the Baltimore airfield in Voronezh, around 220 kilometers north-east from the border with Kharkiv Oblast and home to Russia's 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment. kyivindependent.com/... x When Hitler invaded Poland it was their fault. 🙄 https://t.co/we3VVgPcNl — Rachel Bitecofer 🗽💡🔭🦆 (@RachelBitecofer) June 23, 2024 [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/22/2248118/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-851-UKR-still-limited-in-striking-legitimate-military-targets-in-RU-territory?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/