(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Coming Presidential Debate Will Make No Difference, Unless... [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-24 To start with the obvious, 40% of the vote will go to Trump. Seemingly, another 40% would not vote for Trump without a gun at their head. That leaves 20% confused. Although polls this far out are not altogether meaningful, they certainly point to a close election. I would suggest that President Biden has a better chance of getting his 40% to the voting booth, since his campaign is working on this, while the Trump campaign is mostly just being entertained by Trump’s rants. That might make a 3% to 7% difference. That is not quite enough. During the last weeks of campaigning, there is generally a dramatic galvanizing, one way or the other, for a single candidate. Why does this happen? Because, for the most part the 20% of confused/undecided voters tend to vote the way their friends vote. They are voting, not out of conviction, but out of a desire to be part of something, or in many cases, simply to avoid feeling left out of something. The motive is social, not political. These 20% will not be paying attention to any debate scheduled during Summer vacation season. Nor, for the most part will their undecided friends. Further, they are not likely readers of Daily Kos, so we won’t have much influence over them. So, what does have to happen for the debate to have an impact? Lets eliminate the ridiculous. Neither the Donald nor the Joe are likely to fall asleep during the debate. Neither are going to say something likely to alienate their own voters. What does have to happen is one of the candidates has to plant the seeds of an idea for the final campaign. While that seed could be aspirational, (ie. the Audacity of Hope) neither Trump nor Biden are all that inspirational as speakers. This leaves the only option to be to plant the seed that will undermine support for the opposition. We need to have something already building momentum as the election news coverage ramps up after Labor Day. When the election becomes something everyone is talking about, social pressures begin to build as well Trump already has his. “Sleepy Joe is too old to be effective.” It is up to Biden to develop his line. “I am not Trump.” has not moved the needle. Neither has, “I have done more to help Americans that Trump has even considered”. Neither has, “Trump is a danger to Democracy”. Nor has, “Trump is a convicted felon.” Thus, Biden needs something new. May I suggest the following, ‘Are you just lying again, or are you really that ignorant? It can be used with multiple variations and on multiple occasions. Trump will say something outrageous. Count on it. Trump will say many things that are outrageous. Heck, that is a big part of his popularity. Biden, for lack of a better metaphor, has to become the cool kid. And by the cool kid I do not mean the few nerds who sit in the corner during the high school dance and make fun of the others. He needs to be the popular kid the nerds are mocking. Remember, the popular kids are the ones who won high school. (Where they are now is, sadly, completely irrelevant.) So, while Trump is saying something outrageous as, for instance, “Our Southern border is being invaded.” Biden has to watch with a bemused look on his face and, when his turn comes, say, “Are you lying, again, or are you just so out of it you forgot that you, personally, killed the border solution bill?” Then Biden can say whatever he wants about his proposed solution to the problem. None of the 20% will be listening anyway. Or Trump can proclaim that inflation is out of control. “Biden can say, are you ignorant or just lying again? You do know that half of our current inflation is caused by insurance companies trying to cover costs increases due to climate change that you deny exists, right?” The Wall? You didn’t build it. Mexico did not pay for it. Infrastructure? You didn’t’ pass it. Israel? Ukraine? Medical costs? January 6th? All of these are easy targets for someone who does know what has happened, what is happening, and what will happen if he is re-elected. But, the momentum changer is “Are you lying or are you really that stupid?” During the Trump/Clinton campaign, it became obvious that reporting showing an education gap in the polls helped Trump. Repeatedly saying that college educated folks had higher levels of support for Clinton than Trump, combined with Clinton’s, “Basket of deplorables,” quote, fomented a movement away from Clinton among the mostly blue-collar white voter base. Trump’s, “I love the uneducated.” drew them to him. Most folks without college degrees think they have to be smarter than folks with college degrees to have made the life they made. They may well be right. But, whether they are right or not, they believe it. Therefore, the Biden campaign cannot successfully challenge on the issue of education. But, it can challenge successfully on lying and ignorance/stupidity. At some point this can morph into, if you took your job as President seriously, you would know these things. Every good worker knows that it does take effort to be good at a job. So, if the Wall was so important to you, why didn’t you get it built? If peace was so important to you, why did you practically encourage Russia to invade Ukraine? If Israel is so important to you, why haven’t you pointed out to Netanyahu, that his policy hurts not only Palestinians, but also Israelis? “Are you lying, ignorant, or did you just not care enough to make something happen?” The campaign builds itself. 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