(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Renewable Tuesday: Peak Oil [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-25 We can all cut off slices of the oil market in the Death of Carbon by a Billion Cuts, maybe with an EV, but definitely with a local political campaign for electric school buses and such, or a college or pension fund divestment campaign, or zoning requirements, or an occasional boycott. Bigger slices are coming off all the time as we approach Peak Oil in a few years. This is not the old Hubbert idea that we would run out of oil, but the new idea of leaving it in the ground. x What IEA’s 2029 peak oil forecast means for the tanker trades https://t.co/F9us4ftVLG pic.twitter.com/XGMP5DISNu — Splash (@Splash_247) June 17, 2024 The IEA forecasts global oil demand will peak in 2029 at 105.6m barrels per day, up a modest 2.4m barrels per day from this years’ estimate of 103.2m barrels per day, Over five years, this represents what analysts at brokers Poten & Partners described as “anaemic” annual average growth of 500,000 barrels per day. The bulk of this demand growth, as expected will come from India and China, and other emerging Asian nations, The key drivers behind the decline in oil demand are the shift towards electric vehicles and the substitution of oil with gas or renewables in the power sector. According to the IEA, the growing penetration of electric vehicles will displace 6m barrels per day of gasoline and diesel demand by 2030. All in all, I wish we had discovered water instead. Attributed to Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani EVs See also IRA subsidies. Cars, vans, trucks, police cars, ambulances, garbage trucks, recycling trucks, school buses, military tanks… The public did a great job of pushing the USPS to buy lots of electric mail delivery vans. The Tipping Point In Global Oil Demand 60% of oil is used in transportation. Fuel savings by 2040 are expected to be 21.42 MMBD compared to the 100 MMBD global oil demand in 2022. The article cites a variety of sources suggesting that Peak Oil could occur anywhere from 2025 (Statista) to 2045 (OPEC). I don’t care about the exact date, just as long as we can be sure that it is coming, and think of ways to speed it up, like a carbon tax, so that our current benighted market analysts and politicians don’t get to say when. Replacing Oil Heaters See also IRA subsidies. Canada x NEW - The federal government announcing additional funding to support moving to a heat pump. Income-qualified applicants could receive a rebate of as much as $16,000 to switch to heat pumps in homes currently heated with oil. #bcpoli pic.twitter.com/XuSImyySIB — Richard Zussman (@richardzussman) May 13, 2024 USA x Heat pumps offer a more efficient, cleaner option for heating homes. With winter beginning, @ENERGY should not allow a fuel oil trade group to use consumers’ money to mislead them on highly efficient heat pumps. pic.twitter.com/ktBNyU5nls — Ed Markey (@SenMarkey) December 22, 2023 The National Oilheat Research Alliance aggressively pushes biofuels for home heating, and lies about heat pumps, among other things. Plastics There is a lot of ferment in the world of bio-degradable and compostable plastics, but beware. When you hear from corporations about how wonderful their products are, demand to see the tests. When scientists make broad claims, demand peer-reviewed data. Is biodegradable plastic compostable plastic? Generally speaking, not in your home compost pile. x In one study, compostable plastic bags buried in soil for three years were so sturdy they could still hold a full load of groceries. A scientist submerged a type of compostable plastic in seawater and could not find any signs of degradation 428 days later. -The Atlantic pic.twitter.com/TCGmKHDJW7 — Cat, Reigning Typo Queen👑NO DMs (@typocatCA) May 21, 2024 Ships Tugboats, ferries, short-haul freight carriers, megayachts… Electrek: Electric ships Aircraft BuiltIn: What Are Electric Planes? Startups are piloting battery-powered aircraft for a variety of use cases Training craft, air taxis, regional aircraft first, then longer range as weight comes down and power density increases. Batteries currently weight about 40 times as much as jet fuel. US Air Force Testing Brand New $4 Million Fully Electric Aircraft x Leaders flying to the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference #COP26 in private planes raised some eyebrows. What's our CO₂ footprint for flying to scientific conferences? Here's a study we run by geolocating author and conference locations. https://t.co/aZ5yZsFehZ pic.twitter.com/SWzcINmEZ3 — Diomidis Spinellis (@CoolSWEng) November 13, 2021 The paper: The Carbon Footprint of Conference Papers The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO 2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO 2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO 2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total. Next question: How much carbon reduction do we get from such papers? What’s the ROI? Denial x #Opec’s Secretary General Haitham al Ghais hits back at the @IEA’s report published yesterday. Al Ghais says peak oil demand is not on the horizon & calls the IEA’s narrative for oil “dangerous” & could lead to “unprecedented volatility”.#oott https://t.co/YNr1hBClep pic.twitter.com/tEDimuviu8 — Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي (@Bacharelhalabi) June 13, 2024 x Heating oil companies asked New England gov.s to stop incentives for heat pumps and natural gas to avoid (*checks notes*) an energy/health crisis. "We cannot stand idly by while dangerous electrification policies and system conversions put our neighbors and communities at risk." https://t.co/OJ0YPtOTX7 — Sabrina Shankman (@shankman) December 16, 2021 x .@ChristianForTX is in charge of oil in Texas. He is repeating conspiracy theories and denying the climate emergency. When we say vote like your life depends on it, it's because it does. This man is happy to kill you to fatten his pockets until he kicks the bucket #txlege pic.twitter.com/4SzrudhT5c — Michelle (@LoneStarLeft) June 20, 2024 Greenwashing x A new report by Corporate Accountability has found that Chevron has been doing some serious greenwashing. Of the carbon offsets the oil company purchased to make up for its own emissions, more than 90% haven’t proved to be effective, with the report saying that they’re worthless… pic.twitter.com/BM7E4OHwzB — NowThis Impact (@nowthisimpact) May 25, 2023 Greenwashing optics? Exxon Mobil TV Commercial, 'Carbon Capture'. ExxonMobil runs an amazing quantity of greenwashing ads at the beginning of YouTube videos, cementing the hatred for the company among informed users. I am considering a message I might put into comments on such videos, explaining why I won’t share them. 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