(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . There IS Reason To Worry... [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-26 A lot of this is a bit of a rebuttal to Biden is going to win. Here are 11 reasons why. I don’t necessarily disagree with everything, but I just don’t quite see things as optimistically as is presented. And there are various reasons… Reason One: Both have lost support to the other… This comes predominantly from: Support for Biden/Trump - Pew Research, and there, there are things that are not necessarily great. Note specifically: Among 2020 voters While overwhelming majorities of 2020 Trump and Biden voters say they will support the same candidate again in 2024, those who supported Biden four years ago are slightly more likely to say they would switch their vote if the election were held today. Among those who voted for Biden in 2020, 7% say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today. This compares with 4% of Trump 2020 voters who say they would vote for Biden today. Among registered voters who did not vote in 2020, preferences are divided: 46% back Biden, while 48% back Trump. Support for Biden/Trump - Pew Research They note that both candidates have lost support from 2020 to the other, but more Biden supporters, by a factor of 3 are going to Trump than what Biden is getting from 2020 Trump voters. And among those that didn’t vote in 2020, 2% more prefer Trump. Neither of these are particularly good for Biden, particularly when noting how bad things have looked with regard to the polls. In fact, much of this could actually be driving the polls as they presently stand and is putting Biden in a position where he is playing catchup. And this continues with additional detail… What are 2020 voters’ preferences today? Unsurprisingly, overwhelming shares of those who voted for Trump (94%) and Biden (91%) in 2020 continue to support the same candidate today. Still, small shares have changed their preference, particularly among some subgroups. Currently, 10% of registered voters ages 18 to 49 who supported Biden in 2020 now favor Trump or lean toward Trump. When looking at voters by race and ethnicity, nearly all White voters who voted for Biden in 2020 – 94% – say they’d still support him today. Smaller majorities of Black (88%), Hispanic (84%) and Asian (85%) voters who supported Biden four years ago say the same. There are not differences among 2020 Trump voters in 2024 preferences by race and ethnicity or age. Support for Biden/Trump - Pew Research Now, granted, this section is small, and it would appear that Pew Research either didn’t get or didn’t look for the exact demographic data for Trump’s support. But we can still draw a conclusion that Biden has lost support from 2020 to Trump in general. And while it is plausible that the drop in support among the various minority groups for Biden may not go to Trump, because Biden has been playing from behind, not getting them WILL hurt. Particularly when the graph that they put in the article next to this section shows that the listed group of those who would be going from Trump to Biden is SMALLER than those going from Biden to Trump. In fact, an NPR article does have some of the statistical data that is missing in the Pew Research article… Nonwhite: 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34) Key voting groups are shifting in the race between Biden and Trump - NPR Now, the NPR article doesn’t say that these voters are actually going to Trump, but the fact that they aren’t supporting Biden this go around represents a MASSIVE drop in support, particularly when Biden relied heavily on this nonwhite support to win in 2020. Particularly when a lot of the overall data in the Pew Research article would indicate that a lot of the support among others has not changed. Which all highlights problems for Biden... Reason Two: Incumbency matters This one is rather obvious, but it also highlights pretty much all of the areas where Biden is in a bit of a hole… Note: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Center - Gallup and note specifically the “incumbent job approval” section, though the other sections are also important. But none of these are particularly good for Biden. At present, his approval rating is lower than where Trump’s approval rating stopped being tracked in October 2020. This gives some indication that a lot of what helped Biden in 2020 was not necessarily a lot of support for Biden… but dissatisfaction with Trump, and particularly with how he was handling Covid, as the concern on the economy in 2020 was much lower according to what Gallup presents. They also present that the economy is of MUCH higher concern this time around. There is also plenty that would show that many of the issues in this election are different from 2020. PBS’ Issue List Here, one can see in the linked image on the issues that present in the election, and their importance to each group. One can then note that by far the issue with most concern across all groups is economic in nature, and specifically with regard to inflation. Which then presents a challenge to Biden… as from what is seen in the Gallup polling, that will present a challenge. For as the present President, if issues of the economy are raised or remain as high as they are… Biden will HAVE to take ownership for the concerns, questions, and issues. He cannot just try to push those things onto Trump. Particularly when according to PBS, Trump leads on the economy and the border… 54 percent said Trump on the economy 52 percent said Biden for preserving democracy 54 percent said Trump for immigration 54 percent said Biden on abortion — Here’s how Americans feel about Biden and Trump as election season revs up - PBS News All of this represents a problem. For per what PBS puts out, the economy, and most specifically inflation, is the largest issue of concern for everyone. It isn’t as much of an issue for Democrats as persevering democracy, but it’s still larger than any other issue that PBS provides. And while Biden does hold leads on the issues of abortion and democracy… abortion isn’t even in the top 3 issues that Democrats or Independents or focused on… and it isn’t in the top four for Republicans. And Biden’s lead on the issue of democracy is lower than his lead on abortion, while Trump has the same lead on the economy and on immigration. And all of this remains a point where incumbency matters and where the driving issues will be most shaped by it. For Trump, or someone in his campaign, is bound to bring up issues with inflation and the economy, where Trump has a majority of support and hammer at that, because rightly or wrongly, Biden will be blamed for it as the sitting President. And while we can hope that people will vote primarily on the preservation of democracy, the one issue that is of major concern across the board, even if not as much for Republicans as other issues, that isn’t how people have historically voted. Historically… people around the world, not just the US, have tended to vote more on economic issues than they do all others, and based on the area of concern from the PBS post… 2024 will be no different, and thus presents a point where Biden MUST chip into Trump’s present lead on the issue. Reason Three: The race is tied… but should NOT be And to a great degree, this could well present the biggest issue of worry. For while Biden has climbed in some of the national polls, see: 270 to Win - National Polls, the fact that he’s only ahead by 0.4 points might as well mean the race is tied. Particularly when 4 of the 7 polls they average have a posted margin of error over 3, two polls don’t even post a margin of error, and the one poll that has a relatively large sample size and a margin of error of 1 has Trump and Biden tied. So, based on national polling, we can call the race at present a tie… But it SHOULDN’T be a tie. It really SHOULDN’T be anywhere near that close. Particularly when we consider on how Trump’s first term ended. Where he grossly underestimated the effects of Covid and downplayed it to the point where the US suffered more from Covid than China did, regardless of whether or not the disease developed naturally or came from a lab leak. The exact origins don’t matter when it gets out of control and Trump as President urged people to take bleach to treat it. This in turn wrecked the economy and accelerated the arrival of a recession that some experts expected to happen at some point after 2020, even without Covid. That’s not something that should be giving people confidence in Trump on things like the economy that the PBS article presents. The US economy faced at least the potential for a recession even without Covid… And according to one Fox Business article, the US actually entered a recession in February 2020, BEFORE many of the Covid responses took place… Note: Recession officially started in February, researchers say - Fox Business. And one may argue that Fox is known for its lies, and particularly lies to help or pander to conservatives, but one would then think that they wouldn’t mark the start of a recession in the US until after the main effects of Covid began to hit, which would then reflect on Trump’s management of the economy prior to Covid hitting and making it worse… But the Fox Business article wasn’t the only one, a different source also presented the same report. I simply used the Fox Business article for the irony… Yet the race is presently tied, and most Americans see Trump as the better steward of the economy. Despite the fact that Fox reported a recession BEFORE Covid hit. That would imply that Trump’s management of the economy from 2017 to 2021 was NOT good, and Covid only made it worse. And whole books have been written on how bad Trump’s response to Covid was. And yet the race is tied… This is all BEFORE the issue of Trump’s felony conviction comes into play and relates to issues that came before he became President and could also contain references to things he did from November 2020 to January 2021 to stay President. For before he ran in 2016, Trump had involved himself in an affair with a porn star and when he decided to run for President, he did all he could to try and keep that affair hidden. This included falsifying business records, records that people under Trump, like Michael Cohen, went to prison for before being released in 2021. See: Michael Cohen completes prison term after Trump-related crimes - LA Times. Cohen had participated in Trump’s scheme to protect his image from the voters, as the Republicans are the party of family values and obviously can’t have a candidate cheat on his wife be the head of the ticket in 2015-2016. And in 2016 the scheme worked, Trump became President and was then able to use his position as President to block any attempt at enforcing the law that he had broken. To add to it… the Federal government then largely ignored Trump’s actions once Trump left office. They only resurfaced when the STATE of New York brought these charges back, which Trump was found guilty of… And yet the race is still TIED. How the Republicans see the political spectrum... All of that brings me the interpretation of politics that the Republicans have used quite successfully to excuse anything and everything they do. Having everything be a line between tyranny on the Left and liberty on the Right and providing no explanation on policy positions and why the Republican Party is kept so close to the Right, despite the fact that many of their policies either rely on state power or increase the size of government. Thus, people see the model… or the Republican presentation of it in their ads and reflexively vote for a Republican, because “the Democrats are ¾ of the way to Socialism and tyranny.” Preserving a tie in a race that should NOT be tied. Reason Four: National polls are one thing, the Electoral College is another The national polls have shown Biden return to a lead over Trump, but we need to remember that would only apply to the popular vote, which ISN’T how the US President is selected. The President is How the electoral map looks based on present polling by state elected by the Electoral College. In this, the election is more 50 separate elections, not one big one. In this, Trump doesn’t need 51% of the American people to vote for him. He just needs to win more states than Biden, which is what he did in 2016. In that election, Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes and lost the election because Trump won 30 states to her 20. This then makes the polls by state far more important than the national polls and based on 270 to Win - Presidential Election Polls, the above map would be the result. That Biden would lose all of the rust-belt states in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania… the sunbelt in Nevada and Arizona… Georgia and would only win one district in Maine and would lose the state as a whole. In this, so far as the Electoral College is concerned, Trump stands to do better than he did in 2016. He probably won’t get the popular vote, but he also doesn’t NEED the popular vote. And in some of these state polls, Trump’s lead is relatively healthy… Note: 270 to Win - Presidential Polls, Arizona, where the head-to-head lead is about five, and in one specific poll when the independent candidates are added, Trump’s lead jumps to 10 points, even with the percentage level going down in that poll by about 6 points from the head-to-head. One could argue that the 4-point margin of error is bad, but then, Trump exceeds the margin of error in both cases. Thus, the best-case Biden can make, based on that margin, is a narrow defeat rather than a blowout. And: 270 to Win, Presidential Polls - Nevada, where Trump has a 5-point lead and one that holds pretty consistent even after the Independents are added in. About the only thing we can really hope for here… is that the pollsters have overcorrected from the mistakes made in 2016 and 2020 where Trump’s support was underestimated or underrepresented. For there have also been polls conducted across the swing states that would favor Trump on the issue of preserving democracy, which has been Biden’s strongest issue in the country as a whole. See: Trump trusted more than Biden on democracy among key swing-state voters - Washington Post, and further showing that it’s not going to be the national polls that matter but the individual states. And while there may be errors… one can’t just count on them. Reason Five: The Democrats may have overperformed against “polls” in some special elections, but they also didn’t include Biden This is something I’ve seen a lot where people have been trying to argue against what has been going on with so much of the polling favoring Trump. And to a degree, some of those numbers would look surprisingly good. But they’re also deceptive. For many of them were things like constitutional amendments and ballot initiatives on things like abortion which are inherently special and focus solely on the primary issue at hand. Note: Public Opinion on Abortion - Pew Research and note that across the board, a massive number of Americans, including a sizeable number of Republicans support there being legal abortion access nation-wide. And while more Democrats support it than Republicans, 41% of all Republicans is not a small number. And most members of white non-Evangelical Church members, Black Protestants, and Catholics shows that even among the religious, there is support for abortion access. It’s really only among white Evangelical Church members or firm conservative Republicans that you begin to see a major swing the other way. But those small groups can’t overcome everyone else when they can all vote on the issue and are not being drawn into the battles on people or party. In this, with many of those special elections… particularly with the amendment and ballot initiative elections on abortion… the Democrats didn’t exceed expectations, they lived up to the base expectations. Because when it comes down solely to the issue itself, the vast majority, and perhaps even a supermajority of America supports the right to abortion access. It’s when dealing with people and tribalism where things get different. Which is another thing that ties things back to things in Point Three. For because Republicans campaign in such a way that would leave people thinking that the Republicans are the ONLY ones in this country that believe in freedom, they’ve assured that there will be sizeable numbers of people who just unthinkingly vote for Republicans because they think the Republican will preserve their individual freedom. The Republican Party has campaigned to END abortion nationwide since the moment Roe vs. Wade was decided, and most of them have offered NO exceptions to it. And the actions that lead up to the Dobbs decision weren’t even the first one to show up. Take South Dakota which has a bit of a history with this. In 2006 and 2008, the Republican controlled state legislature passed near total abortion bans on the hope that they would go to the US Supreme Court and then overturn Roe vs. Wade. However, both times saw the state raise ballot initiatives that then overturned the law and prevented the need for the lawsuit. See: South Dakota’s history on abortion bans - Keloland News. And yet… at the same time, South Dakota has also continually elected Republicans who support these positions to state offices. The governor who signed the two abortion ban bills in 2006 and 2008, Mike Rounds, is now the state’s Senator. And it’s another safe red state that will surely go to Trump. See: 270 to Win, Presidential Election Polls, South Dakota. In this, people have a nasty habit of voting for people that don’t support the issues they do. That is going to be a big part of what ultimately decides the election between Trump and Biden is where do the people ultimately fall. Because when looking to many of these races where Democratic politicians have won, they’ve often done so because they’ve moved away from Biden or have asked that he not come and try to support them. And that’s ultimately been something that’s related to thins in Point Two. We cannot deny that Biden’s approval ratings are low, and that people are blaming Biden for the hardships that they face… or the perceived hardships that they face, regardless of whether it is right or wrong to do so. That’s something that comes with incumbency, and where many Democratic candidates have had to ask serious questions on where they stand in relation to an unpopular President. And some of that was a big part of the past midterms in 2022. See: Democrats’ big dilemma: Avoid Biden or embrace him? - Washington Post and Democratic candidates are hesitant to campaign with Biden despite recent win streak -NBC News. In this, a lot of the success that Democratic politicians had in 2022 had more to do with avoiding a lot of association with Biden and keeping him OUT of their races and thus avoiding a lot of the low approval rating that Biden has and the negative association with him that would come of it. It would then stand to reason that many of the other people that have won, and won in some red areas, have also managed to avoid association with Biden and have managed to have a good enough messaging campaign that the focus was more on the issues… which would actually be cases where they would actually gain a polling advantage. Biden, however, can’t do that as he runs for reelection. Biden will have to find a way to defend his record and provide a convincing argument that would overcome many of the concerns that have been plaguing him. Be it the attacks on the economy or inflation, his age, or anything else. Special elections that are issue specific and elections where the Democratic candidate either asked not to have Biden come or was in a small enough race that Biden didn’t come do NOT relate to where things stand with Biden. Reason Six: People haven’t been turning out for Biden in the primaries, either While it is true that Trump has been losing voters post-conviction, and the fact that he’s been continuing to lose Republican voters to Haley even AFTER Haley dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump hurts… But making the argument focus solely on that would make it seem like these issues are all happening in a vacuum and that Biden hasn’t been wrestling with similar issues on the Democratic side. In this, a lot of what is going on is happening across the board and some of it was even predicted to a degree… See: Predicting Turnout in 2024 - Campaigns and Elections. They were expecting lower turnout than 2020 even in 2023 before the real campaigning began. And then some of these earlier primaries came out, and turnout was lower, and lower across the board. And in some cases, it is probably lower than what was predicted in the Campaigns and Elections article… 'Shockingly low turnout' during Tuesday's primary election in Chicago - Chicago Sun Times. Now, granted the Campaigns and Elections article is likely looking more to the general election while the Chicago Sun Times article is looking specifically at a primary election in one city… and they note that the fact that it’s been a relatively non-competitive primary race, particularly on the Democratic side, would add to that. But it’s also something that doesn’t necessarily inspire much confidence in there being a major jump in enthusiasm or turnout by the time the general election arrives. Much of this has also related to the relative “enthusiasm” that is there for the likely rematch between Trump and Biden, and one that Trump’s voters have been looking for. And where voters that were key to Biden’s win in 2020 are NOT as enthusiastic. See: New IOP poll finds younger voters unenthusiastic on Biden-Trump rematch - The Harvard Gazette and Enthusiasm for Biden-Trump rematch ticks up: Survey - The Hill. Note the first of the two notes the drop of support in younger voters for either candidate, which can hurt Trump… but would hurt Biden more because of how much Biden, and the Democrats in general, have depended on the youth vote in recent years. The Hill article notes an uptick in “enthusiasm” at the time the article was printed, but they break that enthusiasm down by party… Excitement has increased across party lines, though the uptick is higher among Republicans. About 63 percent of Republicans are eager about the rematch, compared to about 36 percent of Democrats and only 27 percent of independents, Monmouth said. Enthusiasm for Biden-Trump rematch ticks up: Survey - The Hill At the time the Hill article was published, Republican enthusiasm was double that of Democrats. They were looking forward to the rematch more than Democratic voters were. All of which notes a problem, that played out in many of the early primaries. And Michigan was a good example of this… See: Presidential Primary: Michigan Results 2024 - CNN. Trump may have had lower turnout than what one would expect from him in a primary, particularly given that he’s claiming to run as the “incumbent” Republican, but he still got nearly 136,000 more raw votes than Biden did. So, saying that Biden has won a higher percentage of the Democrats’ votes in the primaries can be irrelevant if Trump keeps getting more raw votes. And Haley got nearly 152,000 more votes than all of the anti-Biden Democratic votes in the same primary. The one major point of context that may change some aspects of this would be that Biden is actually in an uncontested race where his only consistent opponent is an unnamed “unaligned Democrat” while Trump has had a far more contested primary on the GOP side. In this, there could be a legitimate case to say that some of Biden’s numbers, particularly in the early primaries was a result of that factor, which in turn means things could well change as the general election campaign season begins. This is something that often reflects the nature of change in politics where low enthusiasm early in 2024 could grow as the picture becomes clearer on who the matchup will be. Note: Voter enthusiasm for Biden-Trump rematch increases: Poll - The Hill. As we now move into June… more people are now looking more enthusiastic about the rematch… But it’s also still a Republican lead on that issue. The survey found an increase in enthusiasm across all partisan groups, but Republicans are more eager than Democrats. Seventy-one percent of Republican respondents said they were enthusiastic about the rematch compared to 46 percent of Democrats. Independents were the least enthusiastic respondents, with only 34 percent saying they are ready for another Biden and Trump battle at the polls. “Voter enthusiasm has a limited impact on actual turnout. But it is interesting how the partisan gap on this metric continues to favor Republicans as enthusiasm increases the closer we get to Election Day,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. — Voter enthusiasm for Biden-Trump rematch increases: Poll - The Hill Things have changed and to a degree have gotten better for the Democrats, but they are also still trailing with regard to the eagerness for the election, and what the Hill notes has limited turnout. Much of which is hurting Biden, who is still battling uphill so far as the polls are concerned. Reason Seven: Trump is losing support, but most of it is from the “RINO” Republicans and Libertarians that are technically outside his core MAGA base… but that doesn’t make them friendly to Biden. It is true that Trump has been losing support, but we generally need to remember on WHO Trump has lost. Much of this comes back to issues in point three, and how the Republican Party has played to things over the better part of the last 40 years. Making excuses for their unpopular policies and getting voters to vote for things they don’t want under the pretext that the Republicans are the ONLY ones who believe in freedom. It’s created a highly partisan system that has been there LONG before Trump and has been highlighted by the likes of men like McConnell… The GOP’s no-compromise pledge - Politico, and this goes back to Obama’s first term. This shows that Trump didn’t create the partisanship that rules the Republican Party, but he did play heavily to it and in 2016 won on it, and probably would have won in 2020 on it if not for Covid and his bad response to it. Now, his response to his defeat in 2020 may have created some of the drop in support among some Republicans, and that has been seen through the actions of people like Liz Chaney and Adam Kinzinger who turned hard on Trump following the January 6, 2021 Capitol Riot. Actions that saw both Republicans censored by the rest of their party for not standing up FOR Trump. See: RNC votes to censure Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger over work with Jan. 6 panel - NPR. Trump has gone after both in social media and effectively calling both “Republicans in Name Only” for not supporting him, and to which his loyal followers turned on both… with Chaney losing her seat in Wyoming to a decidedly more pro-Trump candidate. And many of the Republican voters that have fallen away from Trump since 2020 likely fit into the same sort of category as Kinzinger and Chaney. Policy wise, they have very little, if anything, to agree with Democrats on, and about the only thing they can agree on is that they don’t like Trump or don’t want Trump to get back into office. And when the 2024 GOP primaries began, it was thought that Nikki Haley might ultimately go down a similar road and line of attack as Kinzinger and Chaney did in the past… to turn on Trump. That’s in part fed the number of votes that Haley got in the primaries, more than any of the other Republicans running against Trump. And Haley has continued to get a surprising number of votes despite having dropped out of the race. On the surface, that would appear good for Biden, and he has made efforts to try and appeal to the Nikki Haley voters that won’t have her on the general election ballot in November. But they are still largely Republican voters. They don’t agree with Biden on taxes, they don’t agree with Biden on the border, they don’t agree with Biden on economics, they don’t agree with Biden on just about anything. The list of things that they would agree with Biden on are smaller than the list of things they disagree with Biden on. And this puts Biden in an uphill battle to appeal to these voters, which probably won’t work out all that well… Note: Once underdogs in the presidential race, Haley voters could now be kingmakers - NPR. As while the article here notes that many Haley voters are more likely to vote for Biden than Trump, a large number WILL vote for Trump, because “team Republican” and it would seem that the largest group is more inclined to either writing in Nikki Haley, voting for one of the other independent candidates, or simply not voting. That continues to put Biden in an uphill climb with these voters, as while some may vote for him, it doesn’t appear that most will vote him, which will hurt, given his present standing in the polls and the fact that his approval rating is as low as it is. Reason Eight: Biden has lost core elements of his 2020 base Trump has indeed lost parts of the Republican Party following both his actions post defeat in 2020 and post criminal conviction, but he isn’t the only one to lose supporters. Biden has ALSO lost supporters. And unlike Trump, who’s core base has held relatively firm, Biden has lost FROM the Democratic Party’s core base. The Democratic Party has typically always done better with minorities and non-Christian religious groups, but since the turn of the 21st Century, their reliance on these groups has become even bigger. In fact, that was a big part of how Biden won in 2020, see: New 2020 voter data: How Biden won, how Trump kept the race close, and what it tells us about the future -Brookings. However, since 2020, Biden’s support among these sorts of groups has declined… and with Hispanics, that decline has continued since 2020. Now, this decline may not be dramatic and in fact most minority voters may still prefer Biden to Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Note both An Early Look at Black Voters’ Views on Biden, Trump and Election 2024 - Pew Research and Are Black voters deserting Biden? - Brookings. On the surface, these reports would indicate that much of the reports on the claims that minority voters are flocking to Trump have been exaggerated by Republicans and the Trump campaign. In general, that is a good thing and would make some things easier for Biden when it comes to working to win these votes. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that while many of these voters haven’t left the Democrats for other reasons. One interview on MSBNC had a group of African American voters that effectively said they’re undecided and said that Biden had done nothing for them. That represents a problem. And African Americans aren’t the only ones that may be moving away into a non-voting position. Note: Arab-American mayor warns Biden has not ‘earned my vote’ - Jordan Times. And note that that this report has come from more than just the Jordan Times, but it does still point to issues where groups that are typically solid Democratic voters saying they have no intent of voting for the Democratic candidate. And in this case, with Abdullah Hammoud being a local mayor, the fact that he has said he is not voting for Biden quite publicly… he’s telling his community “Don’t vote for Biden.” And in Michigan, where Biden’s deficit is quite narrow, and depending on the poll would be his lead, see: 270 to Win, Presidential Polls, Michigan, this public selling of not voting for Biden can well be the tipping point that effectively hands Trump the election. It then gets worse when Hammoud also states that he is not responsible for Biden losing, despite telling people NOT to vote for him. In this, Biden is not only going to have to work hard to get Republican voters who disagree with him on virtually everything but also to get people that should be in his corner with relative ease. That is troublesome and one that could well cost Biden the election. Reason Nine: Trump has overperformed in the general elections he’s been in A lot has been made on how Trump has underperformed in the GOP primaries… that he hasn’t gotten the sort of results that one would expect from a guy running as the incumbent. And on the surface, there is some truth to that. However, as the general election approaches, we cannot rely on just primary numbers. For as per the nature of Republican politics in point three, they get a lot of advantages in being allowed to be highly partisan that Democrats don’t get. It’s something that just raises the likelihood that a large number of Republicans will go back to “team Republican,” even if they personally do not like or support Trump. And we’ve already seen a lot of that as figures who have been highly critical of Trump endorse him in 2024. See: Barr, who said Trump shouldn’t be near Oval Office, says he will vote for him in 2024 - CNN, McConnell endorses Trump for president. He once blamed Trump for ‘disgraceful’ Jan. 6, 2021, attack - AP News, and even Nikki Haley and the End of the Anti-Trump Republican Fantasy - New York Intelligencer. In this, we can only know that it’s okay for Republicans to be partisan and solely focused on “team sports” in such a way that if Democrats did the same with similar issues to Trump, they’d be voted out en masse. And because the leading party members do it, we can expect the voters to do it as well, and which played out in how Trump did in the last two general elections he was in in 2016 and 2020. For we need to note that in both elections… the polls didn’t favor Trump. He was behind Clinton for most of 2016 and particularly on, the margins seemed rather wide, though they began narrowing as things got closer to November. By the time the election rolled around, Trump had actually climbed within the margin of error… but was STILL behind in the polls. The end result then filled all sorts of studies when Trump won in 2016… and some of this continued into 2020. See: How U.S. polls got it wrong in 2016 — and why they're more likely to get it right this time - CBC News. They note all sorts of errors in which critical support for Trump, particularly in the swing states was undervalued, even as the election loomed. But they also go on to say on how Biden’s lead was bigger, and Trump couldn’t overcome those numbers… But while Trump couldn’t overcome the disadvantage he had at the polls in 2020, he DID overperform the expectations. Now, Biden won both states, but margin was closer to 2 than the 5 or 6 points that the 2020 polls expected Biden to win by, and in Wisconsin, the margin was by less than one. Pennsylvania, however, is a bit of a different story. FiveThirtyEight places Biden’s lead there at 4.7 percentage points, while it has dropped in the RealClearPolitics average to 1.2 percentage points (including some less well-known and partisan pollsters). The point is, Pennsylvania appears to be closer than Michigan or Wisconsin. It’s also the biggest of the three states, with 20 electoral votes at stake. Where Biden and Trump stand in the final presidential polls -Vox Here the polls were pretty accurate on the low-end expectations, but that’s also still well below the high-end expectations for Biden in the 2020 election. And this is where things move ever more in Trump’s favor. Of the listed states by polling, Biden was ahead in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina with margins as high as 2 ½. And in the states he was behind, Trump was up by no more than 2. In the actual results, while Biden did win Georgia, it was by less than 1 point. Trump won all the remaining states. He won Texas by nearly 6 points He won Florida by over 3 points. He won Ohio by more than 8 points. He won Iowa by just under 9 points. Arizona is another traditionally Republican state, but it’s been one of the strongest of this group of swing states for Biden (though it’s still quite close) — Biden leads by 2.6 percentage points there per FiveThirtyEight, and by 0.9 per RealClearPolitics. — Where Biden and Trump stand in the final presidential election polls - Vox Here once again, the polls give Biden a high-end result of just under 3 in the polls and a low-end estimate of just under one. The actual end result was that Biden won Arizona by 0.4. In this, the CBC article is correct was that Biden’s lead in 2020 was too big to outright overcome the way Trump had overcome the polls in 2016… BUT in nearly every case, Trump exceeded the polling expectations. Yes, he lost, but within the states that he lost, they were by MUCH narrower margins than what the polls suggested. And one can check with PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 2020 - CNN if they think my math is wrong in looking at the difference between the results and the polls in that election. All of this, however, shows that Trump has exceeded the polling expectations in both general elections he’s been in. It’s only the fact that the polls were significantly worse for Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016. Much of this likely comes for the same reasons as why the 2016 polls were wrong in that support for Trump was either underreported or underrepresented. One can argue that the pollsters have overcorrected for these past mistakes, and to a degree that is possible. But a lot of that specifically cannot or will not be confirmed until November… and while Trump has underperformed in the Republican primary, having that translate into a win for Biden in the general election would mean that a large number of Republican voters will have to vote for Biden, and specifically in the swing states where the margins are the narrowest. And there, the actions among Republican Party leaders, including those that have criticized Trump in the past, and the culture that the Republican Party has successfully created where they are felt by their party members as the only ones that believe in freedom… as noted in point three, it is unlikely Biden is going to get a lot of votes from dissatisfied Republicans. I’d actually find it more likely that most of Republican voters, if they vote, will vote for Trump as part of their whole partisan party loyalty. Reason Ten: The independent candidates are going to draw away voters from both Trump and Biden… and exactly which isn’t certain The present election looks to be one akin to the 1992 election, where Ross Perot is widely credited with drawing voters away from HW Bush and thus handing that election to Bill Clinton. Some of the details are a bit complicated, as Perot held certain advantages in areas that the Democrats typically did well in and with some voters that would be thought of as Democratic voters, while as a Texas businessman and appealing to many Reagan voters from the 80s he would also hold some measure of attention to Republican voters. One article makes the case that if Perot did cost HW Bush reelection, it wasn’t necessarily based on what has been attributed to Perot on the surface. See: We Don't Know Whether Perot Cost Bush in 1992 - Real Clear Politics for reference to the article. The present election is likely to play out in much the same way, but to a greater extreme as there are at least four other candidates other than Trump and Biden. That’s not including figures like the Libertarian candidate or the other independents that end up on the ballot. Most, if not all of them, including RFK Junior have held positions that would be held as pretty liberal, and it was clear that Trump and many Republican groups knew this and began hyping these candidates up. They saw it as a means to draw voters away from Biden and thus help Trump, given that it is improbable for Trump to win a majority of Americans to him. If things change favorably for the Democrats, Biden might be able to do so… particularly if the race was limited to just him and Trump. But at first, this strategy did not appear to work all that well for Republicans, and that’s been something that many may want to reference. Note: RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds - NBC News. In this April poll, Trump’s 2-point lead in the head-to-head became a two-point deficit when the independent candidates were factored in. And this did garner attention and worried Trump when some of these sorts of poll results came out. Note: Trump Freaks Out Over RFK Jr. - MSN. Clearly the results that came out in April were not expected by Trump and Republicans when they paraded RFK Junior around Fox News and other news outlets. And at the same time, given some of the positions that these independents hold, one would also expect them to hurt Biden more than Trump… even RFK Junior and his anti-vaccine nonsense. And in most of his present supporters have stated they voted for Biden in 2020… About 32% of Kennedy’s supporters said they had voted for Biden in 2020, while 24% voted for Trump. RFK Jr could act as a disrupter in the presidential election – taking votes from both sides - The Conversation And this could be a worrying sign for Biden, even though the Conversation article also adds that per the polling they’ve used, it would seem that RFK Junior is at least marginally drawing away more support from Trump than from Biden. If that holds, that could save Biden in the election despite the fact that RFK Junior is also supposedly drawing attention and support from demographics that also generally lean to the Democrats. Now, things could go more the way that Ross Perot’s run did… where the people he drew that would seem like Democratic supporters never actually were Democratic supporters, but that’s also an unknown at this point. And there are certain aspects of this race that can change or would at least be seeming to go the other way. Possibly a reverse of Trump then freaking out and attacking RFK Junior. SURPRISING FACT In a race this close, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to sway the election with his independent run—though it’s unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widens his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., independent Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump’s lead increases two points with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. draws votes from key Biden supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support grows to 18% for voters between the ages of 18 and 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead is unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. — Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Trump Leads By 1 Point In Latest Survey, Days Before Debate - Forbes Here, from much of the polling that Forbes is using, RFK Junior and the other independents either have not affected Trump’s lead over Biden or have widened it. They do mention the NBC poll showing RFK Junior hurting Trump more… but since I’ve linked that article, I’m not including Forbes’ mention of it. Though it would be noted that much of the information that Forbes has may be newer and involving reactions to Trump’s proverbial meltdown over the support that RFK Junior drew from him. And at the same time, from one of the state polls in Arizona, which can be found linked in point four, the presence of these independents, while they do take some votes from Trump, they actually increase Trump’s lead in Arizona from 5 to 10. All of this would indicate that RFK Junior and the other independent candidates would represent a wildcard that cannot be fully predicted with a lot of accuracy. Some polls would indicate that they’re hurting Biden more than Trump and at least one shows they’re hurting Trump more than Biden. Nothing in that is completely definitive on its own. Trying to do so is going to be quite selective with the information one is using. For the moment, both Biden and Trump have reason to be worried over RFK Junior and the other independent candidates. Now, all hope is not lost Now, I suspect I’ll take a lot of flak for this, and I’ll even admit that a lot of this could well be a lot of pessimism on my part. For as I’ve said here… this is a race that should NOT be tied, or at least not tied between Biden and Trump. Maybe tied between Biden and one of the independents, but not Biden and Trump… And yet, it is, and that pessimism is coming out to where I’m essentially arguing with a decent, if overly optimistic article… But this doesn’t necessarily mean that all hope is lost. And here there are a few reasons why I think so… First: Trump has benefitted from almost four years of non-stop campaigning: And that much should be obvious. He didn’t announce it when he got to Florida after leaving the White House, but based on his actions, it was going to be painfully obvious that Trump was going to run for President again. He gave campaign style interviews and statements and spent the last four years attacking Joe Biden for just about anything. If Biden so much as sneezed, Trump attacked him for it. In some ways, Trump’s post presidency mirrored much of what he did while as president. Sending out a near endless stream of campaign style messages. In contrast, Biden really didn’t engage in any sort of campaign rhetoric until this year when the actual campaign season started. In this, it’s no surprise that Trump has gained and held a lead in the polls for so long over Biden. Trump has essentially been running unopposed for about four years. And since he wasn’t in office anymore, his lies weren’t challenged or countered as much. But Trump is essentially the same liar he always was and still the same greedy charlatan he always was, and many people know that. They just haven’t paid attention to it. I suspect that as Biden begins to actually campaign, a lot of the advantages that Trump has built will actually begin to fall away. Particularly as Trump has seemed to have more “senior moments” than Biden has had. Second: The criminal conviction will likely hurt Trump: And there, I agree with a lot of what was said in Kos’s article on that point. From the 270 to Win site’s tracking of the polling, it should be noted that Trump was actually ahead in the national polls, and by fairly healthy margins, before the criminal conviction. After that happened, Trump’s lead began to gown down and then seeing Biden go ahead nationally in the national polls. And even a few state polls, where Trump does still lead, have also seen those leads narrow. In this, while I’d argue that Biden will need to do more than say, “I’m not a crook,” as if that were really all that were needed… the race wouldn’t be tied between Biden and Trump, I would say that drawing attention to this criminal conviction as part of a line of attack would do well. Particularly when the facts would show that the hush money before the 2016 election was not the ONLY crime Trump has committed. Biden can’t and shouldn’t rely on that alone, but it may be something to get things started. Third: It will be easier for Biden to win back voters from his base: The loss of support from the key elements that make up the Democratic Party’s base hurts, and if unchanged could lead to defeat. However, there are various pieces of information, some of which sourced earlier, that would indicate that while there has been dissatisfaction with elements of Biden’s policies, he would remain personably likeable. While a lot of that would have seemed to go out the door in the face of Trump’s vulgarity as a political figure… it did play a role in Biden’s win in 2020 and thus can play a role in the 2024 campaign. It would also be something that Trump really can’t match. For while Trump is likely to gain most Republican voters back… that’s going to be entirely due to the partisan nature of how the Republican Party and its voters operate. Things have always been a sort of “team sports” challenge for Republicans and their voters will simply vote for anyone with an R by their name until things reach a point where that Republican’s actions hit “critical mass.” And some of that has already played out in Lauren Boebert’s district where her own antics nearly cost the Republicans a seat in what should be a SAFE Republican district in Colorado in 2022 and lead to her switching districts to avoid a repetition of that. Trump has been no different and has often attacked enemies and rivals quite aggressively, sometimes even after the person he’s attacked has endorsed him. A lot of that has led to the creation of groups like the Lincoln Project which in a normal world would never think to campaign for a Democrat like Biden and various other anti-Trump Republican groups that have made their displeasure with Trump and his antics quite clear. In a normal world… a normal politician would do their best to make compromises and work out ideas to bring things together, as Biden did with Bernie Sanders in 2020. Not only has Trump not done that, but he’s also made no effort to do that and would simply be relying on partisan blinders to bring the Republicans he’s attacked back. Now, it’s probable that few of these dissatisfied Republicans will actually vote for Biden… but if they don’t vote for Trump or don’t vote at all, that could indirectly help Biden a little. It leaves Biden with working to rebuild and repair his coalition and win back support from those that have left him. Being able to listen and be personable sets things up to converse with and win back support in ways that Trump’s style does not. It’s something that will ultimately be easier for Biden to do than for Trump to do with the Republicans that have left him. Fourth: Things like the debates will give Biden a better shot to reach independent voters: The coming debates probably will not do much to shape things going forward with regard to the main Democratic and Republican bases, they’re going to be pretty set in stone, regardless of the outcome. It’s also these groups that have likely shaped many of the present polls. They haven’t focused much on the details, which have actually shown that Biden has done a FAR better job than he’s been given credit for and then accepted the “headlines” that the media has gushed over concerning Biden’s age, the minor mistakes at first regarding inflation, and everything else… which has created the climate of a recession, even though one isn’t there… Note: Most Americans falsely think the U.S. is in recession, poll shows - NBC News. On the surface, this poll is horrible… and it is, because it FEEDS the lies the Republicans have been spreading about Biden’s handling of the economy since Biden was elected. The facts would show that America entered a recession while Trump was in office and coming largely from Trump’s poor handling of the pandemic. Fox News would have you believe the economy didn’t tank until November 2020, conveniently with Biden’s election. And they’ve used the miscalculation on how fast demand would come back after the pandemic, leading to the inflation of prices, as proof of that… It has on the surface created a very negative image, particularly to people who are NOT paying close attention to things. Biden did underestimate how bad inflation would be and he articulated things poorly… but overall, he’s actually done a fairly decent job with the economy. The biggest thing he could have done was out on the campaign trail more and earlier to try and boost confidence in things… As this would relate point one in the all hope is not lost section. But he is starting to go out now and has the opportunity to show where the economy has done well and that despite the initial miscalculations, inflation HAS been getting better. The debate will be an excellent chance to do that, as more people will see it… and specifically more of the people who paid little attention to things earlier will be paying attention. It’s also something where Trump would be likely to undermine his own case with regard to his competency when compared to Biden on the whole “age” issue. As Trump and Republicans have flooded the media with headlines on Biden’s age and cognitive decline to mask Trump’s issues. Issues that for Trump have been worrying those that study these things and without the need for creative editing to suit a given conclusion. Note: Donald Trump's Mind 'Faltering,' Top Psychologist Warns - Newsweek. There’s even a recent letter to the editor in the Wall Street Journal that has some one voicing greater worry about Trump’s issues than Biden’s… But to the average person who isn’t playing close attention, one would think that Biden is suffering more than Trump, because that is where the flood of headlines has said. A strong debate by Biden would put a lot of that rest, and if Trump rambles or makes the sorts of mistakes that the Newsweek article points to, a lot of the attacks on Biden’s age may end up falling on deaf ears and undermining Trump’s line of attack. And even if Trump doesn’t have one of these issues in the debate… because Trump isn’t a good debater, that would still give Biden a good chance to show independents and those who haven’t been paying close attention where he stands… giving Biden a chance to eat into Trump’s present lead… particularly in the state polls. All of this would also assume that Trump even shows up… If Trump chickens out, as he did with the second scheduled debate in 2020, he’d give Biden a chance to campaign unopposed opportunity to show that it is Biden, not Trump, who is still mentally capable. And these are all the points that we know Biden can control and what could all ultimately reinforce each other as they go forward. Biden will have to work hard, and I would still hold that there is legitimate reason to worry about Trump winning in 2024, but if Biden does work hard, the four areas where there is hope for him should reinforce each other and improve the odds going forward… The rest may end up being left to dumb luck. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/26/2248402/-There-IS-Reason-To-Worry?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/