(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Why President Biden's polls aren't good and the three goals he must achieve in the debate to win [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-27 In this diary I am going to explain what I believe is the main reason President Biden is struggling in the polls and the three things that he needs to do in the debate for it to be a successful debate that will put him on a trajectory to win the 2024 presidential election. I have said the same thing as Mark Sumner previously, namely that Republicans have been quicker to back Donald Trump than Democrats and independents have been to embrace President Biden, but got pushback from a nontrivial number of active users here. This is the asymmetry that I am talking about. I don't believe that it's the Israel Hamas conflict, not is it the economy or inflation or even price levels. President Biden is where the majority of Americans are. He supports Israel over Hamas and Iran, but he has been concerned about the estate of Palestinian civilians from the beginning and he is opposed to the way that Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has been prosecuting this conflict. Most people here are upset to some degree that President Biden didn't cut off offensive weapons before although Israel remains surrounded by enemies and the risk that a wider war could emerge is not trivial. Therefore, I'm not sure that expecting the president to abandon Israel relatively quickly after a major terrorist attack and after seven decades of close friendship when they remain surrounded by enemies was realistic. In any event, supporting the nation of Israel while opposing how they are engaging in this conflict is undeniably where most Americans are. It's not the economy or inflation. The goal of the Federal Reserve Board for the rate of inflation is two percent. It is now 3.3%, a little over a third of what it was at its peak. Inflation has been lower here than in other similarly situated nations in the G7. Our economy after the pandemic is "the envy of the world". The unemployment rate is historically low. More than 15 million jobs have been created since President Biden took office. The unemployment rate has been below four percent for 29 consecutive months. Price levels are significantly higher than they were before the pandemic. However, consumer spending remains strong and more and more Americans recognize that the economy is improving and/or good. I am using good to summarize the economy as a whole while taking higher prices and inflation into account. Outside of higher prices and higher than normal inflation, one would say compared to recent history the economy is outstanding. The reality is that this is a good economy even though the increase in price levels has been hard for many people. When this is reality, then it's difficult to believe that the American people are angry at President Biden over the economy. There is no precedent for seething anger at an American president because of the economy when the economy is actually good. I can't come up with a single example of an incumbent president losing reelection when the unemployment rate is below four percent in more than one hundred years if ever. If you disagree, then give me a counterexample when the unemployment rate was below four percent and the incumbent American president sought reelection and lost. I don't believe that you can give me a single example in the 235 year history of this country. After the state of the Union speech, a number of Democratic Party politicians showed that they were relieved that our president is mentally sharp and healthy. I am an active user here and I didn't believe that President Biden was in significant cognitive decline, but I was relieved that he showed that he was mentally fit. If that's true for me and for Democratic Party politicians, then it's even more true for normal Americans not following politics closely. President Biden has done a very good job as president. However, communication is a serious weakness for him. He was not visible enough and did not sell his accomplishments frequently enough or well enough to reassure voters that he was mentally healthy. Then we add in the uneven coverage of President Biden's gaffes and age and this campaign against him that he is in cognitive decline and his chronological age and inflation and the American people largely began to embrace the view that he is in cognitive decline. He is now much more visible, but the right wing Trumpers have deceptively altered videos of President Biden to reinforce this false narrative because they have absolutely zero morals or ethics. Once people have embraced a view reinforced by media coverage, then it's very very difficult to get them to change that view. That's why President Biden had to get a debate with Donald Trump. I said a while back that what was going to determine if President Biden wins reelection is if he is sufficiently visible and in the public eye enough to reassure those who don't follow politics to show the voters that he is mentally healthy, significantly more so than Donald Trump who actually is in cognitive decline. He had to be out of the public eye to prepare for the debate because of how tricky it is to debate such a prolific liar with no conscience or moral compass. In this debate there should be three goals: (1) President Biden must show that he is mentally healthy (2) While acknowledging that prices are higher and inflation is slightly higher than normal, the economy is good (3) Donald Trump is disqualified as a candidate for president. If President Biden can accomplish this or begin to move the needle on these three truths, then he will go a long way to winning re-election. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/27/2249066/-Why-President-Biden-s-polls-aren-t-good-and-the-three-goals-he-must-achieve-in-the-debate-to-win?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/