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Everyone. Calm. Down. [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-06-28  

This is my first diary for Daily Kos. It may well be my last and my only. I’m not someone who revels in attention and likes to grind people’s gears. It’s bad for my anxiety and causes me to waste time checking for constant updates. But there is something I feel I must absolutely say.

Everybody calm down.

Biden had a debate last night with Trump. It was, if you believe the headlines, an unmitigated disaster for Biden. Trump was “poised” and “polished” and “confident” while he spurted out a torrent of bullshit that made the Johnstown flood look like a fun romp through a backyard sprinkler. Meanwhile, Biden was old, doddering, froze up, couldn’t remember his lines, and generally seemed like a senile old man. And, as a result, predictably, all the usual people are acting as though the world is ending. The MAGAs are gleefully crowing about how Donald Trump mopped the floor with Biden last night. The media is treating this as the turning point in which Biden lost the election. And the usual liberal/leftist/progressive talking heads are furiously wasting reams of paper explaining why now is the time to replace Biden at the top of the ticket if we want to avoid a full-on Nazi takeover of America in 2025. I believe this rhetoric is misguided defeatism at best. At worst, it is an excuse for concern trolls to chastise establishment Democrats, advertise their Substack, and otherwise stake out a claim in the landscape of leftist media as the ones who “got it right” in 2024. Before we go any further, here are a few facts.

This Was One Debate

I am disappointed in Biden’s performance last night. He should have been ready for Trump to spew his litany of falsehoods, insults and lies. He should have had a few points and hammered them home. But he didn’t. The good news here is that Biden can learn from this mistake and go into the second debate better prepared. With the media constantly harping on what a disaster this was for Biden, it sets very low expectations for the second debate. Had Biden been a rip-roaring monster throughout his presidency, a performance like last night’s would be setting off major alarm bells. As it is, all last night did was simply remind voters of what they already believe: Biden is old. If Biden chokes at the second debate, well, it’s not like things will be any worse than they are now. If, on the other hand, he comes out looking like he’s been mainlining Mountain Dew and tears Trump’s throat out, the same folks today who are proclaiming the election over will be talking about what a close election it will be.

Debates Have Virtually No Impact On Elections

There’s this quaint idea that the average undecided American voter tunes into the presidential debates to hear a thoughtful discussion of the issues and help make up their mind about who they will vote for. This is simply not true. People who watch the debates are politically informed, motivated, and have already chosen their side. It’s a gladiatorial match between candidates at which partizans of one candidate or the other can cheer and boo as their preferred leader inflicts zingers on his opponent or turtles up defensively. Do you remember who won the 2004 presidential debates between Bush and Kerry? You might. But I guarantee you most undecided voters don’t even remember who John Kerry is or that he debated Bush at all.

The Election is Four Months Away

In politics, time stretches out forever. In 2021 I remember people freaking out that Biden’s withdraw from Afghanistan was the moment at which he became a one-term president. Really? Do we honestly believe that there are a lot of undecided voters who are sitting at home still fuming over that incident? The news cycle moves fast. In a couple days the media will be back to talking about Taylor Swift, the Olympics, and whatever else the media decides is good fodder for keeping people glued to their TV screens.

Replacing Biden on the Ticket is Wishful Thinking

This is really the crux of what I mean. Like it or not, Biden is our candidate. He enjoys tremendous advantages that are easy to overlook. He has name recognition. He has the very, very real advantage of incumbency. He has a massive re-election apparatus. He is surrounded by experts, advisors, and staffers who know him, know his peculiarities, and have been working on a strategy to get him re-elected for years. He is a savvy politician. And because he had a single bad night people are already scrambling to obtain residency permits in Canada and coming up with grand schemes by which Joe Biden is magically replaced with JFK 2.0 at the top of the ticket with all the ease of “ctr+v.” Replacing Joe Biden now would be a disaster.

Who is going to replace him? The obvious heir apparent is Kamala Harris. If you’re worried about Biden’s approval ratings, I have news for you: hers are even lower. But you would have to go with her unless you were prepared for a massive inter-party fight between those who would say that it’s high time for a woman of color to lead a major party ticket and those who would argue that she is historically weak. If you thought the fight between the Clinton Bots and Bernie Bros was bad, this would be a re-run of that. Who else would potentially be at the top of the ticket? Gavin Newsom? Gretchen Wittmer? J.B. Pritzker? No one has any idea who those people are. Even in a best-case scenario in which Biden bows out, Harris stays on as VP, and our new candidate slots perfectly into Biden’s place, there’s still the issue of getting the delegates on board, realigning campaign strategies and teams, getting the candidate out there and, most importantly, convincing the American public that some person they’ve never heard of would be better than Donald Trump. No one is coming to save us and no amount of wishful thinking can conjure a deus ex machina from thin air.

Worst of all, it would play directly into the GOP’s hands. With Biden off the ticket, not only would we get the standard “Democrats in Disarray” headline which is a media staple every time someone to the left of Tucker Carlson mentions that their personal preferences are different than the party’s, it would sacrifice the immense benefits of incumbency. It would throw everything into chaos. It would give us a bare four months to bring everyone on board. And, most of all, it would give the GOP plenty of fodder to argue that “Biden was so bad, even the Democrats themselves couldn’t stand to have him on the ticket.” It would be conceding the argument that everything Biden did was terrible and that the only way out of the mess would be a return to the tried-and-true formula of Trump and the GOP with their low inflation, low gas prices, isolationism, and repression of minorities. It would dominate the headlines for months leading up to the election, and would hand Donald Trump the presidency. All this over a single bad night on the debate floor.

In conclusion: I understand that you’re upset. I am too. I understand that given the apocalyptic rhetoric coming out of both sides of the political spectrum, it’s easy to despair. We see Biden bumbling on stage and read the headlines. We read nauseating peans to Trump about his poise and confidence and poll leads. But take heart. This was a single battle in a very long war. So do what you must to get over this. Eat chocolate. Go for a hike. Scream into a pillow. But when you’re done, remember this. The election depends on YOU. What YOU do, what YOU say, what YOU believe matters. Defeatism is a self-reinforcing circle which, left unchecked, rots away the foundations of a system and saps the will to resist. The campaign is not over. Not by a long shot. This is just a prelude to the real fight: the one which comes on November 5. And I care enough about this country that I will fight every step of the way. Please join me. And together, we can make last night a minor footnote in Biden’s long and successful career.

Thank you for your time.

EDIT: I’m going to sign off now as I really need to get back to work. For those who agree with me, I am glad to hear it. For those who are upset at my tone, I am sorry, it was not my intention. For those who disagree with me, well, I still hope that you plan on getting out the vote, donating, and, most importantly, VOTING in November. And thank you to everyone who took the time to encourage me and compliment me on this piece that I cobbled together in about 15 minutes this morning to help arrange my thoughts after a poor night’s sleep. God bless.

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