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Dunning (of Dunning-Kruger) Talks Debate [1]

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Date: 2024-06-29  

On a special edition of the “Shrinking Trump” YouTube show, co-hosts John Gartner and Harry Segal analyze the Biden-Trump debate in terms of psychological issues and then bring in David Dunning (one of the namesakes of the Dunning-Kruger Effect) to bring in a third perspective.

The hosts start out by talking about their own reactions to Biden’s performance. In a nutshell: Both agree that Biden performed terribly. At about the two minute mark, they each describe their visceral reactions to the debate. Basically they were shocked and horrified.

At around the five minute mark, they define the word trauma and talk about how it is overused, but in this case they believe that Biden supporters can genuinely speak of this debate as traumatizing, because trauma involves an event that drastically and suddenly shifts the world view of an individual or group experiencing it.

Then they go through several clips and analyze them individually. In general, Dr. Gartner argues that Psychologists tend to ascribe symptoms to a known underlying condition. Joe Biden has a stutter and Dr. Gartner has identified a “tell” that indicates Biden is experiencing a bout of stuttering.

Dr. Segal agrees that stuttering is a problem here but seems more concerned about Biden’s inability to decide what answers he should give. He points out that there is at least one moment when cognitive decline (in other words, the type of decline that leads to dementia) may be the culprit behind what is happening. Even if normal aging is the cause of Biden’s issues, he points out that sometimes the symptoms of aging can accelerate rapidly. He speaks of how well Biden did while debating Paul Ryan (which to me is a totally different situation, because Ryan was cordial throughout, but Biden perform well.)

Dr. David Dunning’s segment begins at the 56:41 minute mark. Even if you skip the beginning of the video, Dunning’s interview is worth the watch. Dunning points out that in science it is important to base conclusions on multiple data points, and that the debate is only one data point. He then shows a clip of Biden’s vigorous performance the following day at a rally in North Carolina. He says it is important to continue to monitor Biden’s appearances going forward to collect more data before drawing a conclusion.

At 1:14:41 in the video, the hosts make their final remarks. They both have strong criticism for the Biden campaign, especially the folks who prepped Biden for the debate. They point out that it is important for someone who stutters not to try and speed through remarks, but rather to slow down speech. They also suggest a schedule of daily campaign appearances with people (both rallies and informal meet and greet type appearances), because Biden excels in these appearances. And they say they will monitor President Biden more closely for possible symptoms of cognitive decline.

As someone who does regular public speaking as part of my job, I want to add my own two cents to the matter. Public speakers do get “the yips.” Sometimes (usually because of exhaustion or emotion), I have been verklempt, getting lost in my own head or saying something I didn’t intend to say. This has happened since my 30s (a few decades back for me). Self-care is important for those who put themselves out there in a very public way. Emotions can derail public speakers. Sociopaths like Trump instinctively sense weakness (Joe was clearly under the weather) and know how to needle someone in their weak moments and weak spots. Trump learned how to play to the camera even without a crowd during his tenure on “The Apprentice.” This is not Biden’s wheelhouse.

Joe Biden has aged significantly, as Presidents tend to, and he and his team need to make concessions for that in his debate prep. Managing a stutter is probably much harder for him than it was a decade ago, and he needs to create better strategies rather than relying on his time-worn ones for the next debate.

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