(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . OK, So.... What Now? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-29 So, once again the Curse of the Incumbent President’s First Debate has struck. The only problem is that this time it hit the guy who was 81. And — of course — Democrats are panicking (okay, maybe some super-progressive Machiavelli wannabes might see an opportunity, too). I’m just going to point out here that this may not even be about Biden’s age in total. The reason all incumbent presidents suck in their first campaign debate is that they spend absolutely no time on debating or debate prep while being president. And then — all of the sudden — instead of dealing with deep issues one at a time and decision making about each one separately (which is how management anything works), they start cramming for an attack barrage from some other candidate and moderators, who both expect them to be armed to the teeth like you need to pass the astro-physics AP exam. So you start memorizing one-liners and cramming your head full of data and numbers. Honestly, if you took the week voice and the look of an elder guy out of it, he looked just the same as Obama, W, and even the vaunted Ronald Reagan did in their first debates. He bombed. But he’s 81 and he bombed, and that’s the problem. Honestly, I’m not sure how I feel about what do next. It’s clear Trump did not help himself in that same debate. He managed to not answer any question directly, lie just about every single time, insult the entire African-American and Latin-American communities, and even created a whole new racist slur for Palestinians. You gotta give him credit for consistency: He’s consistently an asshole, a bigot, and a fascist. So far it seems Biden out-raised him in money post-debate by about 3 — 1, and the only polls so far show a static race (or maybe even a slight gain for President Biden in one poll) So the question becomes, what happens next on our side. Regardless of how you feel or I feel, there are really only 3 options (and each one comes with risks): 1. President Biden stays in the race: This seems like the most likely strategy especially if the polling stays tight, the fundraising continues, and Trump doesn’t discover how to behave unlike that raging jerk-criminal-nazi that he genuinely is. In this scenario, however, the Democrats need to do two things. Biden needs to continue to own his physical frailty, but more so. He also needs to remind the public about how amazing Vice President Harris is, and build her up as the successor the country needs if she ever needs to step into his shoes. In other words — they genuinely need to run as a team. The caveat: He can be slower, but he cannot have another in-public moment like he had in the debate, and that’s pretty tough to control. This strategy also requires us — as Democrats — to really savage Trump and the GOP on the airwaves. The Save Democracy theme has to go into overdrive — linking women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, civil rights, and more, with the overall concept of freedom as an American trait. This is not how Democrats like to fight national campaigns (you know, “they go low, we go high.”). But as long as the “let freedom ring” portion ends every ad, speech, and message, it should be enough to turn on our voters, turn them out, and even pull in those anti-Trump Republicans who might be sitting this one out. 2. President Biden decides to drop out: Of the two options that feature another Democrat on the ticket, this one is — by far — the most plausible. In this scenario, post-debate polls show Trump jumping into the lead, and donors start to pull back on funding. The President certainly has an ego (every President does), but he’s a decent and patriotic man who sees stopping Trump more important than this last hurrah for his own political career. He’ll huddle with those close to him and determine it’s time to go, in favor of a younger candidate, but also a ticket that could truly generate excitement. His campaign will also want to avoid creating a fractured convention. This strategy means Biden unifying the party behind an endorsed candidate — probably Vice President Harris — and then meeting with other potential floor candidates and state delegation leaders to basically hand off all of his delegates to her (along with the campaign funding and apparatus). I don’t think President Biden needs to or should resign the presidency now to help the VP out though. The risk of handing the GOP House a potential cover up to investigate around his health would be too great. The other risk is that voters who voted for President Biden in the primaries might be angry that they get Vice President Harris instead. But she might also be far more inspiring and exciting — especially if she runs with another woman on the ticket (say MI Governor Gretchen Whitmer)? 3. The Democrats start a delegate rebellion and oust Biden from the ticket at the convention. Well, it’s possible — but hardly likely. First, you have to convince enough Biden delegates to move from supporting him, and that’s not going to happen with any ease. Second, without an organized hand-off to another candidate, I can think of at least two dozen Democrats that would place their names in nomination, resulting in a raucus convention, floor flights, and possibly even unrest. In this scenario it’s hard to see a route that has democrats coming out of the convention unified and enthusiastic. Some other thoughts: The last time the Democrats had an incumbent President drop out after trying to run for re-election was in 1968. That was a particularly bad year for Democrats to begin with, since the party was badly split over the Vietnam War. The convention was violent and chaotic — by any historic standard — and the Democrats did not leave it unified. Even so, the Democrat (VP Hubert Humphrey) lost to the Republican (former VP Richard Nixon) by less than 1% in the popular vote. And people did not hate Nixon yet, and certainly not like they hate Trump. I wasn’t kidding about Trump’s debate performance: People really, really hate him. Did you see the focus groups after the debate? Even people who were completely horrified at President Biden’s performance completely blasted Trump. The fact that Orange Jesus is so abnormal may very well blunt the entire impact of the President’s debate performance on Thursday night. Most of all, I would encourage anybody reading this to take heart and then realize that we cannot win this election if we don’t leave it all on the field, no matter who is holding the flag. Let’s get this together and safe our democracy!! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/29/2249829/-OK-So-What-Now?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/