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Polling Since The Debate [1]

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Date: 2024-06-29  

There are actually two we know of, and there are probably a gazillion being done right now that we will probably never get the results of. Campaigns, donors, corporations, everyone and their brother would like to know the fallout, but good polling probably won’t be out until later in the week. Things need a couple of days to get digested. People want to know what opinion they should have before they form one.

I’d never heard of either polster, but both look to be legit.

The first Survey USA which I really liked because they had Asians on the race crosstabs. Likely voters were +2 Trump which is neither here nor there, Black 22/67 which is strong for Trump with that demographic but about what is being seen most places these days. Hispanic 41/46 still breaking for Dems but close, surprise is Asians 48/39 advantage Trump, which is surprising, Asians are usually pretty dependable Dems, I can relate though, too many generations under one roof and soon enough you want your own space.

When they ask if Joe is up to the job then if Trump is up to the job Trump does better with independents than Biden who doesn’t do great with his own party but compared to what. Hard to tell if it’s a deterioration from last week or not. Change is what we want to know. Should President Biden step aside from Dems 55% no, 34% yes, about the same percentages when asked if the Dem party should run someone else even if the Prez doesn’t step aside. Again compared to what.

The second polster Leger with a very short PDF with Crosstabs for if they watched or not for some questions. Is a bigger spread of 8% but they don’t differentiate between who watched and who didn’t with Presidential preference. I read but don’t know that prior to the debate they were at +2 Biden which would give it a 10% shift. Not real encouraging.

These are only a couple polls, and I’m sure tomorrow there will be polls showing anything you want to hear, I’d say take all of them with some salt, including these. I’ve no idea who these folks are. I’m sure someone will be looking them up. Now is when reputation is important. A good polster will strive to get the truest results.

Lastly please be nice, too much name calling altogether. Anyone and everyone’s opinion is legit. No one wants Trump to win, everyone likes Joe Biden.

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