(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Yes, yes, the debate was a disaster. But, *which* disaster? And for whom? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-29 It seems so long ago now that we thought that Biden would have cleaned Trump’s clock. And, this debate — in toto — was an unforced error for Biden. How did he not see this coming? How did he not combat the Gish Gallop with Reagan’s famous “there he goes again” line? How did he not say “you know how you can tell if Trump is lying? His lips are moving.” How did he not prepare for an onslaught as obvious as this one? That said. Biden didn’t hurt himself in this debate. No one wanting to vote for Biden is not going to vote for him anymore. He didn’t win any new voters. But he didn’t lose any either. Trump did. And he did so stupidly. And in ways that only a self-absorbed narcissist could. First, let’s address the elephant in the room: there are no undecided voters. I mean, yeah. theoretically, some guy who has been in a coma for 10 years woke up Thursday and decided to watch the debate, and that guy is gonna vote for Trump. Ok. We lost that vote. Chalk one up for Team Trump. But, we have a closely divided country where some segment thinks that Trump is Christ and some segment thinks that Trump is the Antichrist. I MEAN THAT LITERALLY. I don’t mean that people think that Trump is terrific. I mean that they think that he is Christ. And I don’t mean that people think that Trump is horrible. I mean that they think that he is the Antichrist. And even taking deity out of things, this is 50/50 with no one sitting in the middle thinking “eh, well, maybe he’s not the Antichrist, but, Im gonna vote for him anyway”. There. Are. No. Undecided. Voters. The people who think that Trump is Christ are not going to vote for Biden. The people who think that Trump is the Antichrist are not going to vote for Trump. Here is your Biblical battle between good and evil, for those of you who think that the Book of Revelation is a history of the last days of the United States. Here we are. And the people most inclined to think that, think that they are going to get Raptured up to heaven when Trump says so. I mean, Im not thrilled in saying this; but I honestly believe that it is an honest assessment of a whole lot of people in these United States. But, this debate did something very interesting, and it is the ultimate unforced error: Trump villified his own voters in places that he needs every vote. Black Republicans are rare, but they exist. They are about 11% of the Black population. Hispanic Republicans aren’t exactly plentiful, but, they’re a significant portion of the demographic. Like 26% significant. He attacked both groups by saying that the Hispanics were specifically coming for the Black jobs. Now, say what you will about Black Republicans or Hispanic Republicans: neither sees themselves as bad people, thieves, or menial laborers. They do *not* see themselves as the bottom of the pecking order in the world they live in, that one with Trump as Christ. To the Trump-as-Christ people, they are waiting for their Rapture, and they are part of that Rapture. And Trump just told them that they are not. Big mistake. Because, neither Blacks nor Hispanics are evenly distributed across the United States. The Blacks who are not in the South are overwhelmingly in the Rust Belt states. Hispanics are dotted across the country, but are concentrated in the Southwest, which used to be Mexico before the United States stole the territory. They identify as Americans. Buuuuuut… it’s complicated. The South, Southwest, the Rust Belt: every one of the 6 states Trump needs most reside in one of those regions. And he hurt himself bigly. Georgia has 3.375 million Black people. 11% of that is 371,250. Georgia has 1.078 million Hispanics. 26% of that is 280,280. So, he just told 651,630 people in Georgia who were inclined to vote for his that they are not in his Rapture Study. Trump needed to increase his vote in Georgia by 11,000. How is he going to do that when he just pissed away the good will of 651,630 people who were part of his base? Michigan has 1,376,579 Black people, or about 151,423 Black Republicans. Michigan has 55,427 Hispanics, or about 14,411 Hispanic Republicans. So, that’s 165,834 solid Trump voters that he told to pound sand. Trump lost Michigan by about 155,000 votes. That’s a big number, which he now has to shore up about double of. There are 327,077 Blacks in Arizona. 11% of that is 35,978 There are 2.3million Hispanics in Arizona. 26% of that is 597,480 Combined is 633,458. Trump needs to increase his vote count in Arizona by a little over 10,000 votes. Pick a state. Do the math. Now, Im not saying that Trump lost all of those votes. He is Christ, after all, and it’s not like they are going to abandon him. But, some percentage is going to stay home. And Trump can’t afford that. Now, let’s just go to the old people. Trump’s most loyal and active base. Old people are the most dependable voters. And they’re the most Republican voters. And Trump just told them that the Hispanics are taking away their Social Security checks. The last thing Trump wants is seniors on the internet doing research. No. The​​​​​​ LAST thing that Trump wants is seniors calling their grandkids to ask THEM to do research on the internet. The more that seniors — the most conservative Americans — talk to their grandchildren — the most liberal Americans — the worse it is for Trump. He needs that divide strongly in place. And he needs the liberal kids to stay home and not vote. Because there about 56 million Americans over 65. But there are about 76 million Americans between 18 and 35. And Trump needs the over-65s motivated to vote and the under-35s apathetic about voting. But Trump already fukt that last one up with abortion. Now, grandma and grandpa are talking to motivated (mostly blue) voters instead of apathetic non-voters, asking questions about those evil immigrants coming for their checks. How many voters might stray in the conversations? How many might find out that people they love are gay? Or had an abortion? Or *need* an abortion? And how many elderly votes change? And how many elderly voters sit this one out? There’s no telling. There are way too many variables to even begin to formulate an answer. But Trump made that calculus inevitable with his debate. The debate that he won. Cuz he’s a winner! Realistically, Trump needs a measly couple-of-hundred-thousand votes across 6 states to reverse 2020 and become the dictator he really wants to be. Now, it is going to be a much harder task. So, yeah, Biden’s performance sucked in this debate. But he didn’t make his overall task more difficult. Trump had a much better debate. But I think he made his math much more complicated. I don’t think this debate was the disaster a lot of people think it was. At least, not for Biden. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/29/2249713/-Yes-yes-the-debate-was-a-disaster-But-which-disaster-And-for-whom?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/