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Alan Lichtman's take on Biden dropping out. [1]

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Date: 2024-06-30  

Alan Lichtman developed a system he calls the “Keys to the White House”, which he has successfully used to predict all but one of the elections since it was developed in 1981. The only one he did not call correctly was the 2000 election between Gore and Bush, and the only reason that call was incorrect is that the SCOTUS decided to call an arbitrary halt to ballot recounts.

In summary, the candidate of the party who won the presidency in the last election must retain at least eight of the thirteen keys listed in the linked article in order to win re-election. If they lose six or more, the opposing party wins.

From the video, his opinion is that if Biden were to step down, we (the Democrats) would immediately lose two of the keys, incumbency and the lack of a contested primary. And while he has not called the election yet, he made it very clear that those are keys we cannot afford to lose if we want to win in November.

Per his most recent analysis, we will not win the party mandate and charismatic incumbent keys, and we are not likely to win the “no major foreign policy failure” and “major foreign policy success” keys. That’s four, and all the rest are either won or likely to be won. If Biden steps down and we lose the incumbency and contested primary keys, that makes the likelihood of losing the fatal sixth key far greater than it is today.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/30/2249949/-Alan-Lichtman-s-take-on-Biden-dropping-out?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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