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And the survey says: the bedwetters were right [1]

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Date: 2024-06-30  

I spent my morning exploring evidence for whether the Presidential debate on Thursday had any impact on how voters feel about Trump or Biden. I offer what I found without editorial content beyond the title. Despite that, this is probably not a good diary for some here to read. It could lead to anger and depression among the most stout of heart Democrats.

I am going to run through some very recent polling averages and then try to encourage all of you to read one particular poll in detail.

My personal bias shouldn’t matter. I am happy to add data showing Biden winning the debate and leading the election polling from reputable sources. I am going to add an example at the end of this article (Morning Consult, which showed no change with Biden still leading by 1 point.

For the record, I think President Biden lost the debate in that it not only didn’t reassure voters he could do the job it actually made them more anxious that he couldn’t do the job. However, I think calling for him to drop out is at best previous and at worst wrong. I find the ongoing discussions and arguments on the subject here divisive and ugly. In an attempt to return the debate to a more objective and factual basis I set out to see what the numbers say.

First, from 538

From the same source

Yike.

From RealClear

Ugly

Now to the first Democratic friendly polling on the debate. This is all from data for progress. As is the chart I used as the title photograph above. The article is called In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump. You all should read this before arguing any more. This is not a right wing source, far from it, the questions are transparent and cogent, and particularly Vice-President Harris fans will find a lot to like.

But sticking to my point here is another chart from this survey. You really need to read this. The link is above.

Lastly, the results of Morning Consults latest poll.

KEY TAKEAWAYS While our post-debate survey shows President Joe Biden has lost no immediate ground to Trump , most voters, including a 47% plurality of Democrats, say Biden should be replaced as the Democratic candidate for president.

A clear majority of debate-viewing voters (57%) say Trump performed best on Thursday, including 19% of Democrats, 60% of independents and 93% of Republicans.

The Biden campaign viewed last night’s debate as another opportunity to assuage concerns about his age and mental acuity, but that didn’t work: Among debate viewers, 78% say Biden is too old, compared with 64% of all voters who said the same days before the debate.

In a shift from 2020, voters were slightly more likely to say the debate moderators favored Trump than Biden.

I am off to mow my lawn. I will be back to read and react to comments in about an hour and a half. I have a lot of lawn and I mow it with a small electric mower.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/30/2250000/-And-the-survey-says-the-bedwetters-were-right?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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