(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . DKers want Biden to stay - are they backing a winning horse? The arguments for and against Joe [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2024-06-30 The Daily Kos diaries, comments, and recommendations since the presidential debate tend to strongly favor Joe Biden remaining as the Democratic candidate. The “someone else“ position has less support. Bearing that in mind, I do not write this diary to either praise or bury Biden. The purpose of this piece is to outline the arguments for and against the Democrats retaining him as a candidate - as I see them. The list is not exhaustive. I welcome readers to point out in the comments everything that I have missed. Each election in turn is called the most important election in recent memory. This one is. If Trump wins - and especially if the GOP retakes the Senate - he will, with the support of the Supreme Court, dismantle the federal government. A process that has already started with SCOTUS overturning the Chevron doctrine. In addition, his cabinet will consist of only boot-licking loyalists, dedicated to his nihilistic agenda - with zero consideration of what is best for the American people. And the congressional GOP will play the role of monkey to his organ grinder. Traditional Democratic constituencies would face more hurdles to voting. And as unwilling as Trump was to leave in 2021, he would be even more loathe to do so in 2029. Fans of democracy once hoped guilty verdicts in Trump’s trials would derail his bid. But that will not happen. SCOTUS has a thumb on the scales of justice. The conservatives have guaranteed Trump will not go to trial in DC before the election. Meanwhile, Trump’s Florida poodle, Aileen Cannon, will also push his documents trial off an electoral calendar cliff. And the Georgia RICO affair has way too many moving parts to go to trial anytime soon. Considering that dystopian trajectory, it is existential that the Democrats put forward their best candidate. Since Thursday night, the Left has been embroiled in a dispute over whether Biden is that man. Both the Biden and ‘somebody-else’ camps have reasons for their position. Both sides think they are right. But only one is. Let’s have a look at the arguments. One pro-Biden argument is that he has been a damn good president. That’s the truth. Sadly, winning elections requires a different skill set than governing a country. And it is axiomatic that if you don’t win an election, you don’t get to govern. I wish it were the case that quality is rewarded. Any dispassionate analysis of the respective terms of Biden vs. Trump clearly shows that Biden is streets ahead of Trump in achievement. But sadly, ability is frequently ignored by many voters. Hillary Clinton would have been a far better president than Trump. If achievement and talent were determining factors, she would have won in a landslide. It didn’t happen. Another pro-Biden argument is that he is a decent guy, who tells the truth — while his opponent is a toxic, narcissistic, authoritarian, anti-democratic liar. That is another contention that looks better on paper than in reality. Even before the debate, the better man Biden was not pulling clear of Trump, despite that miserable man’s abysmal qualities. People can dismiss polls showing Biden consistently a couple of points behind. However, even if you believe polls are unreliable, there was no evidence Joe was on a glide path to reelection. The debate did not help. Even the most ardent Biden supporter cannot claim that Biden won the evening. Especially as voters buy image. Daily Kossacks are both passionate and knowledgeable about politics. Unfortunately, the average American is not. So they are swayed by things other than policy and record. Consider this. The average height of presidents since Teddy Roosevelt is over 6 feet. During the same period, the average American man was under 5’ 9”. Coincidence? I doubt it. (Note: Biden is 6 foot, so that’s not a liability) FDR and JFK were aware of this political fact. Roosevelt, backed by a gentleman’s agreement with the press, hid the fact he could not walk. Kennedy made sure to project an image of youthful, virile vitality - despite suffering from Addison’s disease and osteoporosis so bad he had to wear a back brace. Even Biden acknowledges that he comes across as an old man. And today’s media, combined with the internet’s citizen journalists, make it nigh impossible for any flaw to long remain out of sight. But this does not mean that the Democrats should automatically replace Biden. The best pro-Joe argument is that the party would lose more by changing horses this late in the game, than they would win by picking a ‘better’ candidate. If true, that is undeniably valid. People who support staying with Biden also point out that in the debate he had a cold and it was only one night. They say that Biden has time to rehabilitate his image. They point out that Obama clearly lost the first debate against Mitt Romney in 2012, but treated it as a wake up call. He did much better in the next two. And eventually won reelection easily. There might be something to that. A revitalized Joe might channel his State of the Union energy. However, it is a hard sell to maintain that Joe has the same oratorical and argumentative skills as Barack. Another pro-Biden argument is that Trump is so demented he will have similar “elderly moments.” However, that is not an argument to keep Biden. Any other Democratic candidate would face the same Trump. Another pro-Joe argument is that he won the primaries and he is the people’s choice. Ergo, any attempt to replace him at the convention, would dishonor the voters. Besides, is there any guarantee that another candidate would be more electable than Biden? The alternatives - Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzker et al. - appear compelling. But have any been thoroughly vetted on a national scale? God only knows what skeletons could be found in their closets. On the other hand, if the Democratic Party decides that Biden is so badly damaged he cannot win, then the situation would demand they replace him - regardless of the risk. I think, however, the most salient point is this. It will be Biden’s decision. If he stays in the race, the Democratic Party leadership will not replace him, whatever they grumble in private or leak to the media. But they had better be damn sure they get an invigorated Biden out on the campaign trail, to give wavering independents and liberals the enthusiasm to vote for him. If instead Joe elects to retire as a successful one-term President, then more power to him. The Democrats do have bench strength. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/30/2249758/-DKers-want-Biden-to-stay-are-they-backing-a-winning-horse-The-arguments-for-and-against-Joe?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/